The Percentiles
Chris Wood stats, White Ferns in domestic cricket, Warriors junior re-signings, Matt Henry wickets, Tauihi's top kiwis & more
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Observations From The Second Auckland FC vs Wellington Phoenix Derby (Football)
Flying Kiwis – December 11 (Football)
Five Funky New Zealand Warriors Storylines Heading Into The 2025 NRL Season (Rugby League)
2024/25 Kiwi-NRL Summer Guide: Cowboys, Dolphins, Broncos, Titans (Rugby League)
2024/25 Kiwi-NRL Summer Guide: Knights, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Roosters (Rugby League)
Exploring Otago's Dominant Start To The 2024/25 HBJ Shield Season (Cricket)
Debriefing New Zealand's Return To Reality In Test Cricket After Being Thumped By England (Cricket)
2024/25 Plunket Shield: Even More Rhys Mariu Runs, Matt Fisher Emerging (Cricket)
Exploring The Canterbury Concentration Of Aotearoa's Best Young Cricket Talent (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
White Ferns and squad contenders in HBJ Shield so far this summer...
Maddy Green: 238 runs @ 79avg/89sr, 1 x 100, 1 x 50
Lauren Down: 178 runs @ 44avg/90sr, 1 x 100
Izzy Gaze: 103 runs @ 34avg/72sr, 1 x 50
Molly Penfold: 39 runs @ 39avg/64sr | 9w @ 18avg/5rpo
Nensi Patel: 79 runs @ 26avg/79sr | 4w @ 35avg/3.5rpo
Fran Jonas: 4w @ 18avg/3.7rpo
Hannah Rowe: 86 runs @ 21avg/56sr | 2w @ 38avg/3.3rpo
Rosemary Mair: 26 runs @ 8avg/76sr | 9w @ 9avg/4.3rpo
Mikaela Greig: 27 runs @ 6avg/46sr
Claudia Green: 21 runs @ 21avg/58sr | 4w @ 11avg/3rpo
Jess Kerr: 75 runs @ 18avg/69sr | 6w @ 19avg/3.2rpo
Leigh Kasperek: 75 runs @ 18avg/57sr | 5w @ 23avg/3.5rpo
Kate Anderson: 23 runs @ 5avg/69sr | 1w @ 68avg/5.3rpo
Eden Carson: 6w @ 15avg/2.5rpo
Hayley Jensen: 39 runs @ 19avg/87sr | 6w @ 13avg/2.4pro
Polly Inglis: 59 runs @ 29avg/113sr
Bella James: 246 runs @ 82avg/88sr
Caitlin Blakely: 155 runs @ 51avg/73sr
Blackcaps pipeline...
Youngsters who have already played for Blackcaps:
Rachin Ravindra, Will O'Rourke, Nathan Smith, Ben Sears, Dean Foxcroft, Adithya Ashok, Zak Foulkes, Mitch Hay
1st 11 of best youngsters yet to play for Blackcaps:
Rhys Mariu, Curtis Heaphy, Dale Phillips, Matthew Boyle, Bevon Jacobs, Will Clark, Luke Georgeson, Max Chu (wk), Kristian Clarke, Cameron Paul, Matthew Fisher
Since there’s no spinner in that team, I'd prefer to have Ashok ahead of Clarke/Paul if this were a proper team playing an actual game of cricket
Mature lads with Blackcaps potential:
Brett Hampton, Sean Solia, Nick Kelly, Brett Randell, Peter Younghusband
NZ Warriors have extended contracts for Demitric Vaimauga and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava. Both are now locked in as Otahuhu juniors and that's good to have clarified as I was struggling for information for Ieremia-Toeava who had a stint playing for Otara in Fox Memorial. Both went to De La Salle College and played 1st 15 together...
Other notable lads in the NZ Warriors system who went to De La Salle College: Edward Kosi, Patrick Moimoi, Kayliss Fatialofa, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Junior Sikuvea, Augustino Filipo.
Vaimauga is 20-years-old and he has already played 29 games of NSW Cup/Trials/NRL
Ieremia-Toeava is 19yrs and has played 30 games of NSW Cup/Trials
Peep the theme...
Ali Leiataua is 21yrs and has played 27 games of NSW Cup/Trials/NRL.
Jacob Laban is 20yrs and has played 41 games of NSW Cup/Trials/NRL
Leka Halasima is 19yrs and has played 35 games of NSW Cup/Trials/NRL
Zyon Maiu'u is 21yrs and has played 46 games of NSW Cup/Trials/NRL
Young Aussie hooker Sam Healey is 22yrs and has played 41 games of NSW Cup/Trials
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
Chris Wood’s goal in Nottingham Forest’s win against Manchester United last week was his tenth of the season. He’s already in double-digits for the sixth time in his career and it’s not even Christmas yet. Wood scored an equal career-best 14 for Forest last season and has stated he wants 20+ this time around. As ambitious as that is, he’s on track to do exactly that. Woodsy was really good for Forest last term but he’s been spectacular this term and it’s pretty educational to look at exactly how he’s doing that. Compare a few percentile ranks of 2024-25 Wood to 2023-24 Wood...
Very similar in some of those categories: his xG, non-penalty goals, and attacking actions are pretty much the same. However, he’s receiving significantly fewer passes and his aerial success has notably dropped, and meanwhile his expected assists have taken a large leap (despite having zero assists this season – seems his mates aren’t as good at finishing as he is).
All I can do here is interpret this based on what I’ve seen but I’d imagine those numbers have something to do with a trend that The Athletic spotted a few weeks back, that being how a bigger chunk of his involvements are coming strictly down the middle third of the pitch these days...
In other words, he’s not getting involved as much in the build-up. He’s not drifting wide to support the winger or to collect the ball from a midfielder. Instead he’s got that singular focus on making sure, as often as possible, he is in the kinds of positions where he can score goals from.
Where are those positions? Between the posts and as close to the goalline as he can get. His touches per 90mins have dropped from 31.2 last season to 22.8 this season... the lowest of his Prem career. Almost half of those missing touches are coming from the midfield areas though. Further to that idea, he’s already been offside 13 times this season after only having seven offsides in the entirety of 2023-24. This is because he’s playing higher up the pitch with a strict focus on trying to score goals.
The process has been streamlined. Manager Nuno Espirito Santo does ask a fair bit of him defensively, check out this thread for a great examination of how he leads from the front by cutting off passing lanes, but he’s also asking him to stick to what he does best. Here’s another graphic to peruse, note how he’s in the 11th percentile for touches but in the 93rd percentile for goals...
Chris Wood has scored 10 goals from 25 total shots. There is nobody across any of the Big Five European Leagues (England, Spain, France, Germany & Italy) with more goals from as many or fewer shots. Of the 15 players across those top divisions who’ve scored at least 10 goals already, Wood’s attempting 1.96 shots/90 and there are only there others even under 3.00 shots/90 (Jonathan David of Lille at 2.23; Jonathan Burkardt of Mainz at 2.52; Ante Budimir of Osasuna at 2.87). Incredible efficiency... especially since David and Budimir have each taken at least twice as many penalties as Wood has.
I’ve been making a big deal in these yarns about Rachin Ravindra’s quest for 1000 Test runs in 2024. It was a quest that looked locked and loaded a few months ago, when he tonned against India in the first Test, but since then his scores have dipped and now he needs 78 runs in the final match against England to get to the milestone (joining Kane Williamson and Brendon McCullum as the only NZers to score four-figures of runs in a single calendar year). But while I was focussing on that, a concurrent milestone has been creeping up. Check this out...
Most Test Wickets In A Calendar Year For NZ
Richard Hadlee (1985) – 64 wickets @ 17.43 avg
Daniel Vettori (2008) – 54 wickets @ 26.12 avg
Chris Cairns (1999) – 47 wickets @ 20.51 avg
Trent Boult (2013) – 46 wickets @ 25.08 avg
Neil Wagner (2019) – 43 wickets @ 17.81 avg
Matt Henry (2024) – 42 wickets @ 18.61 avg
Neil Wagner (2016) – 41 wickets @ 21.04 avg
Richard Hadlee (1987) – 39 wickets @ 20.74 avg
Richard Hadlee (1980) – 38 wickets @ 19.07 avg
Iain O’Brien (2008) – 38 wickets @ 21.57 avg
Yeah, good old Matt Henry. 13 Tests into his career he was averaging 51.54 with the ball. Ever since (so, from mid-2021 onwards) he’s averaged 22.56. It was a slow brew but he’s gotten there eventually and is now pretty well established as Aotearoa’s best Test bowler. This 2024 of Test cricket has brought some serious whiplash for Blackcaps fans but one, possibly the only, steady hand from start to finish has been MJ Henry who has taken a wicket in every single innings in which he’s bowled. Even in the second innings against India in Wankhede, when he only needed to bowl three overs, he still got a wicket. These are those innings figures from 2024...
3/31 and 1/33 vs South Africa (Mt Maunganui)
1/44 and 1/15 vs South Africa (Hamilton)
5/70 and 3/36 vs Australia (Wellington)
7/67 and 2/94 vs Australia (Christchurch)
5/15 and 3/102 vs India (Bengaluru)
1/26 and 1/10 vs India (Wankhede)
4/84 and 1/12 vs England (Christchurch)
2/43 and 2/100 vs England (Wellington)
Matt Henry also seems to especially pick on openers. Getting those new ball breakthroughs. Incredibly, he’s gotten Zak Crawley out four times in a row during this current series. He also dismissed Usman Khawaja three times out of four in the Aussie series and got Steve Smith twice. Henry also got Rohit Sharma out in both innings of the third Indian Test and those were the only two wickets of that entire match to fall to kiwi pace bowling (Southee didn’t play and O’Rourke only bowled two overs).
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Congrats to the NZ Breakers who are currently embarking on some mid-season self-sabotage that will be studied through the ages. There were always hints that they were punching above their weight with that 7-3 start but there was also plenty to like about the way that Coach Kop had them playing. Then old mate Mr Owner, in his infinite wisdom, pulled trigger on the Tacko Fall move at the expense of their best defensive player Freddie Gillespie and not only have they lost every game since but they’ve all been hidings.
Breakers Point Differentials In Each Game of NBL25:
+16, +2, -11, +4, -26, +4, +27, +34, -19, +8, -38, -11, -27, -15, -24
Pretty sure you can guess where the Fall/Gillespie swap happened. Time for some more stat graphics, brace yourself for some Offensive Ratings (top) and especially Defensive Ratings (bottom) from the Breakers in each game courtesy of the essential resource that is SpatialJam...
Disgusting stuff.
In happier basketball news, Tauihi finals are upon us this weekend. Mainland Pouakai have finished first after the 12-game regular season, winning five games in a row to earn top seeding. They’ll face fourth-placed Tokomanawa Queens in the semis (a team they beat both previous times this season), while Northern Kahu and Tauranga Whai meet in the other semi-final. It’s straight semis on Saturday (Pouakai vs Queens) and Sunday (Kahu vs Whai) with the winners advancing to next Sunday’s grand final. The Queens won it the first year while the Kahu won it last year but the Pouakai are the in-form favourites this time around. Also, there’s homecourt for the playoffs this time around so seeding does matter. Good stuff.
Leading Kiwi Players in Tauihi 2024…
Minutes Per Game
Stella Beck (Tokomanawa) – 35.5 min (3 overall)
Penina Davidson (Northern) – 30.9 min (16)
Esra McGoldrick (Mainland) – 30.9 min (17)
Tahlia Tupaea (Northern) – 30.8 min (18)
Zoe Richards (Southern) – 28.4 min (20)
Points Per Game
Tahlia Tupaea (Northern) – 16.9 (5)
McKenna Dale (Tauranga) – 14.6 (9)
Esra McGoldrick (Mainland) – 12.3 (15)
Penina Davidson (Northern) – 11.8 (16)
Sharne Robati (Mainland) – 9.4 (23)
Rebounds Per Game
Penina Davidson (Northern) – 8.6 (5)
Esra McGoldrick (Mainland) – 7.4 (9)
Stella Beck (Tokomanawa) – 6.4 (12)
McKenna Dale (Tauranga) – 5.5 (15)
Sharne Robati (Mainland) – 5.4 (16)
Assists Per Game
Krystal Leger-Walker (Northern) – 4.3 (4)
Stella Beck (Tokomanawa) – 3.6 (8)
Tahlia Tupaea (Northern) – 2.6 (15)
Esra McGoldrick (Mainland) – 2.4 (16)
Penina Davidson (Northern) – 2.2 (19)
Also very good amongst all that are the three-point shooting percentages of those top kiwi scorers. Tupaea hit 33 of them at 45.8%, Dale was at 39.7% with 27 makes, McGoldrick close behind with 38.5% for 15 makes. It’s the same names on most of those lists because they’re the only kiwis playing enough to compete with all the imports. Still would like to see the imports narrowed by one next year but good to see that the established Tall Ferns amongst them were easily good enough to compete.
IImar'i Thomas of the Kahu was named as league MVP and the All Star Five was entirely made up of overseas players. But Stella Beck did win Defensive Player of the Year and Sharne Robati was honours as the Most Improved. Robati and Krystal Leger-Walker were in the Rapid League All Star Five.
Musical Jam...