The Knowhow
Warriors vs Bulldogs preview, Tall Blacks at Asia Cup, Blackcaps in Zimbabwe, NZ Breakers development players, and more
Scotty’s Word
NZ Warriors have tough battles vs Bulldogs coming up on Saturday in NRL and NRLW. Here are some key details that I'm pondering...
Tigers defeated Bulldogs in wet conditions last round. Tigers lead the NRL for offloads (231) with 11 more than the next best team and, while they only had six offloads vs Bulldogs, this highlights how Tigers love to shift the footy. That's what troubled NZW in the win vs Tigers and it's a staple of Tigers footy under coach Benji Marshall.
NZW are one of three teams who have fewer than 150 offloads this season. They go about their attacking mahi differently, so it would take a drastic change of style for NZW to tap into the winning recipe that Tigers used. NZW are also well below Bulldogs for offloads per game this season...
Tigers: 11.5
Bulldogs: 10.5
Warriors: 7.4
These three teams help map out the decoy runners and line engaged stats. More decoy runners usually means engaging the defensive line less and I reckon the Tigers funky attacking style is shown in how they have more decoy runners and line engagement that both NZW and Bulldogs.
NZW have more decoy runners than Bulldogs and less line engagement. NZW like to shift the footy within structure (which can be tedious when not working well), Bulldogs use their smaller faster forwards to play direct more often. Add in the offloads and this will be a stylistic match up for footy nerds to enjoy...
Decoy runners per game
Tigers: 52.3
Warriors: 48.4
Bulldogs: 37
Line engaged per game
Tigers: 18.8
Bulldogs: 17.8
Warriors: 11.1
Bulldogs are also awesome at kick chase and kick return metres. This presents a tricky challenge for Taine Tuaupiki who could be monstered every time he runs the footy (generally and returning kicks) as Bulldogs will have a tight defensive line chasing their kicks - like Knights in Newcastle and the opposite of what Tigers did at Mt Smart a few weeks ago.
Kick return metres per game
Bulldogs: 200.2
Warriors: 167
Bulldogs are second only to Raiders for total kick return metres. Much of that stems from Connor Tracey who always bursts forward, eating up metres after gathering a kick and Tracey won't play vs NZW. Jacob Kiraz is the fullback and he isn't as fast as Tracey so that could help NZW, although Kiraz still churned out the mahi vs Tigers.
Tuaupiki has played most of this season on the wing and he averages 30 kick return metres per game for the season, but that increases to 60.6m in his last three starts at fullback. That's still well below Tracey's season average and Kiraz vs Tigers...
Jacob Kiraz vs Tigers: 95
Connor Tracey: 93
Taine Tuaupiki: 60.6
One factor that could help NZW break down the Bulldogs' defence is Samuel Healey's funky mahi at dummy half. Funky mahi that vanished when Freddy Lussick (hearty efforts and all) came on to the field against Dolphins...
Samuel Healey: 61mins, 11 runs - 100m @ 9.1m/run, 6 DHR - 51m @ 98.5m/DHR, 4 tackle breaks, 2 offloads, 38 tackles @ 90%
Freddy Lussick: 19mins, 12 tackles @ 92%
Healey has played 14mins, 47mins and 61mins in his three games this season. He has three offloads and six tackle breaks, while Wayde Egan has four offloads and eight tackle breaks in 17 games. Here's how that looks averaged out...
Samuel Healey: 40.6mins, 2 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 62m
Wayde Egan: 72.4mins, 0.5 tackle breaks, 0.2 offloads, 67m
Funky mahi is the important thing here because Egan's is one of the busiest runners out of dummy half but Healey bounces around and loves an offload. Keep in mind that Healey has at least one tackle break in all 13 NSW Cup games this year and is averaging 1.6 offloads, so this is how he operates as a dummy half.
For NZW to win vs Bulldogs, they will need Healey creating unstructured opportunities. He is the one player who can help NZW tap into the Tigers recipe and that could open up space for the zip of Tuaupiki.
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Best Emerging Players For Samoa & Tonga
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Eddie Ieremia-Toeava Debut For NZ Warriors
New Zealand Warriors & Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs Both Love Aotearoa Ahead Of Monster Game Day
I've got the usual dose of NZW NSW Cup and Jersey Flegg Cup (both playing Bulldogs as well) notes for paid subscribers and the Patreon whanau. I have listed all the career stats for the young cricket all-rounders form Monday's dispatch and there is also a White Ferns ODI World Cup squad break down. Big ups everyone helping to fund our mahi across the platforms available.
Hot take: Bree Illing is in my World Cup squad.
White Ferns in The Hundred
Amelia Kerr: 14 runs @ 100sr | 1w @ 6rpo
Sophie Devine: 0 off 2 | 4ov @ 5.1rpo
2025 New Zealand A Tour Of Bangladesh Debrief
2025 New Zealand A Women's Tour Of England Debrief
New Zealand T20 Tri-Series In Zimbabwe Debrief
New Zealand Test Tour Of Zimbabwe Notebook After First Test
Blackcaps start the second Test vs Zimbabwe tonight. Who knows how the team will line up but we do have Tom Latham joining Will O'Rourke and Nathan Smith in dropping out of the team due to injuries. This creates a fantastic scenario for Blackcaps at the start of the Rob Walter era and there is nothing downbuzz about these injuries/absences as Aotearoa's crazy cricketing depth is on show.
Coach Walter has been around 25 Blackcaps on this tour of Zimbabwe. He already had relationships with players as a domestic coach and mahi with NZ-A, but now he is working with a wide range of Blackcaps on his first tour and I view this as highly beneficial for the new coach.
Blackcaps used 17 players in the T20 tri-series across five games. Then Tom Latham, Will Young, Henry Nicholls, Tom Blundell, Nathan Smith, Ajaz Patel, Jacob Duffy and Matt Fisher hit up Zimbabwe for the Test series. Zak Foulkes and Bevon Jacobs returned to Zimbabwe as cover and Ben Lister came into the squad.
Latham hasn't played in Zimbabwe. Glenn Phillips and Finn Allen were initially named in the T20I squad but ruled out due to injury. Kane Williamson, Ben Sears, Lockie Ferguson and Kyle Jamieson weren't part of this tour to start with. Not only has coach Walter been able to chop it up with a wide range of Blackcaps in Zimbabwe, but I can easily hit 30 players who have either been part of the Zimbabwe tour or are certified Blackcaps not involved for this tour.
Notable youngsters not involved in this tour include Adithya Ashok, Muhammad Abbas and Rhys Mariu.
All of which could get awkward if Blackcaps lose the second Test vs Zimbabwe or stumble to a draw… but that shouldn't happen. This is the craziest period of Blackcaps depth of my lifetime and there is no need to be alarmed by players being injured/not involved because the players stepping up have potential to command more opportunities.
This is most evident in the quality of seamers available to coach Walter. Here is a Blackcaps 1st 11 only made up of seamers and selected as if they are a legit team with a rotating wicket-keeper:
Zak Foulkes, Ben Sears, Nathan Smith, Kyle Jamieson, Adam Milne, Matt Henry, Lockie Ferguson, Jacob Duffy, Will O'Rourke, Ben Lister, Matt Fisher.
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
The Tall Blacks got their Asia Cup campaign off to a winning start by beating Iraq 100-78... although it wasn’t the comfortable victory that the scoreline suggests. In further proof that warm-up results have no bearing on tournament success, the TBs were fresh from beating top-20 ranked Montenegro and Brazil and then found themselves trailing at half-time against 92-ranked Iraq (New Zealand currently sits at 22). To be fair, world rankings are often even more irrelevant than warm-up results – especially in tournaments when dual-nationals and naturalised citizens often start popping up (that wasn’t really the case with Iraq, the only naturalised bloke they had was DeMario Mayfield who scored 9 points on 3/10 shooting).
The obvious problem was the Tall Blacks shooting 4/27 from three-pointers across the first three quarters. There were some unlucky misses, there were some ill-advised attempts, there were times when they were a little bit lazy settling for the threes without trying to push for better looks. To make matters worse, Iraq shot 44% from deep across the game which kept them hovering around.
Other than that, the kiwis controlled all the stat aspects: +10 for rebounds, +3 for assists, +7 for steals... as well as 10 fewer turnovers and 8 fewer fouls. It was a 33-8 advantage for fast-break points which showed what NZ was capable of when they upped the pace. Also 56-36 for points in the paint, emphasising how unecessary the barrage of threes was. Credit to Iraq for cramming the paint though, they did make it hard with their defence at times.
Fortunately, the fourth quarter solved everything. The TBs hit 5/7 threes in those final ten minutes which opened up the whole offence. After 3Qs it was a close game with the lead a mere two points. Then New Zealand scored 37 in the final frame and won by 22. Taylor Britt was superb with 21 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists. Mojave King scored 18 points and had the best plus/minus in the team of +27. Tohi Smith-Milner was the guy who finally got the threes to drop. Flynn Cameron and Carlin Davison had some nice moments. Next up the Tall Blacks face Philippines at 3am on Friday, following an unexpected Philippines loss against Chinese Taipei.
Meanwhile, the Breakers have continued to build their squad by adding a couple of extra development players. Liam Judd was the first to be announced, taking over spot vacated by Carlin Davison when his contract was upgraded to a full one. Judd is 24 years old and both he and his mullet should be well known to fans of the NZ NBL, where he’s impressed with his shooting and his hustle for Manawatu Jets and more recently Nelson Giants. Here’s a glimpse at his season by season progression in the domestic stuff...
2023 (Manawatu): 22.3 MIN | 7.1 PTS | 3.1 REB | 1.3 AST | 45.6 FG% | 37.1 3P%
2024 (Manawatu): 32.5 MIN | 11.4 PTS | 5.2 REB | 1.5 AST | 45.7 FG% | 39.6 3P%
2025 (Nelson): 25.8 MIN | 9.9 PTS | 3.9 REB | 1.0 AST | 47.6 FG% | 41.1 3P%
That’s awesome stuff for a young kiwi wing, who has previously spent time as a training player with the Breakers. He’s a small forward who stands at 196cm. That’s a position that is often kinda sparse across kiwi basketball for whatever reason – finding genuine wings for Tall Blacks squads always seems to be a conundrum. Judd is big and physical and, at his age, with that shooting touch, he should be able to contribute straight away.
The trick with development player signings is that the very best youngsters tend to leave for USA universities since that’s still the best way to get noticed by NBA scouts... so, like we saw with Jackson Ball at Illawarra last week, if you sign those guys you’re probably not going to get a long-term player. But there are those who don’t go to college, perhaps they’re late bloomers or perhaps they just didn’t want to move to America. Carlin Davison is a great example of someone who has created plenty of buzz without walking that path, even getting picked up in the G-League International Draft recently (that doesn’t mean anything in the short term but it gives him an option down the line if he fancies it). Another example would be Max Darling who, like Davison, joined the Breakers as a DP and has since earned a full roster spot. Kaia Isaac and Alex McNaught are currently trying to do the same. Liam Judd is older than most DPs and still has a few raw elements to his game... but has every chance of progressing like Davison and Darling have done. Love this move for all parties.
And that’s not all because one day later they announced that Tukaha Cooper would also be getting a development contract. Again, this is a fantastic bit of recognition for a 23yo guard with plenty of untapped potential who may not have gotten an opportunity otherwise. Cooper was an outstanding role player for the Southland Sharks as they took it all the way to the NBL final recently, where he shot an incredible 41.7% from threes – making him one of the top marksmen in the competition (just like Judd).
That was a huge breakthrough season for TC after being a 25% three-point shooter in his previous four seasons combined (at Manawatu and Auckland). But these waters run deeper because he’s also a strong athlete at 6’3 and a very good defender. For the Sharks, he averaged 9.9 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists per game in 22.7 minutes. This is what his Sharks head coach Jonathan Yim said about him before the season when they first signed him:
“From the start of free agency, Tukaha was a top target for us, and we’re over the moon that he’s decided to join the Sharks. He brings a level of toughness, versatility, and competitiveness that will make an immediate impact. Defensively, he has the potential to be one of the best point-of-attack defenders in the league. His length, instincts, and tenacity make him a nightmare for opposing guards. But he’s far from just a defensive specialist—he’s a capable scorer and lead ball handler who has already proven himself against some of the best guards in New Zealand. What stands out most is his desire to be great. He’s going to rise to every challenge, and he’s already shown great resiliency in his journey to this point. No matter the situation, he finds ways to compete and make an impact. The fans are going to love his intensity, his work ethic, and the way he embraces everything that comes with being a Shark.”
Sidenote: how can you not love Coach Yim? Nothing but respect for a foreign coach who comes to Aotearoa (Invercargill, no less), connects as deeply as he did with that community, and has as much success as he brought. Plus he clearly knows how to scout a player because that was how he spoke about a dude who’d averaged 3.5p & 1.1r in 14.4 mpg last season, shooting 35.1% from the field and 27.3% from deep in the season prior. Since then, Cooper’s had such a rise that he’s now gone professional.
Development players rarely get many minutes but both Liam Judd and Tukaha Cooper are experienced enough and physical enough to make an impact if any chances come around. As well as being raw enough that we should still see significant improvements once they’ve spent some time in this system. These aren’t one-and-done DPs… these are potential rotation players of the future. Same deal with Alex McNaught and Kaia Isaac. With four DPs capable of solid minutes, a Next Star who’s probably going to be starting games, a three-headed import class (still waiting on #3), and a full cohort of locals around them… this Breakers roster runs 16 players deep.
The other thing about TC is that, despite playing for the southern-most team in the NBL last season, he’s actually from Kaikohe way up north - more on the regional breakdowns of this Breakers roster beyond the (pay)wall.
NZ Breakers NBL26 Roster
PG – Parker Jackson-Cartwright | Taylor Britt | Alex McNaught (DP)
SG – Izaiah Brockington | Izayah Le’Afa | Kaia Isaac (DP) | Tukaha Cooper (DP)
SF – Karim Lopez (NS) | Reuben Te Rangi | Max Darling | Liam Judd (DP)
PF – [Import] | Carlin Davison | Sean Bairstow
C – Sam Mennenga | Rob Loe
The Wellington Phoenix Women have burst out the gates for the Bev Preistman era by adding heaps of experience. As it stands, the five oldest players in the squad are all new signings... and if Grace Jale were two months younger then it would have been the top six. This is something they lacked in previous seasons and could have a lot to do with why they so often struggled to turn good performances into good results. Needed a bit more of that hard-earned knowhow.
But they signed someone else this week who doesn’t fit that bill at all: Pia Vlok. Anyone who follows my domestic football coverage will know that Vlok is one of Aotearoa’s very best emerging footballers. Just last week she came off the bench for Auckland United and scored a hat-trick in thirty minutes. Vlok’s shining moment so far is surely the 2024 National League grand final where she started at short notice after Chloe Knott became unavailable and then won Player of the Match in a superb creative midfield effort. But she’s also been a very useful figure in consecutive Oceania Champions League triumphs for AUFC and went to the U17 World Cup last year (and could go again this year). She doesn’t even turn 17 for another month.
Vlok has an interesting parallel with another of our brightest emerging footballers: Milly Clegg. Both of them played for Auckland United, including starring roles in a grand final as 16 year olds (Clegg in the 2022 Kate Sheppard Cup final where she set up the winning goal, Vlok in the 2024 National League GF). Both went to Mt Albert Grammar School. Both continued playing boys football deep into their teens as part of their development – hence why Vlok doesn’t actually feature all that often for AUFC’s premier team. And now they’ve both begun their pro careers as scholarship/amateur players for the Wellington Phoenix. Clegg is a centre-forward. Vlok is more of an attacking midfielder. She joins the Nix on a three year deal, two as a scholar and the third with a full contract.
At the U17 World Cup last October, there were six Wellington Phoenix players in the NZ squad: Alyssha Eglinton, Brooke Neary, Ela Jerez, Emily Humphrey, Grace Bartlett, and Katie Pugh. And Jerez had only recently joined from Western Springs.
Since then a further four from that squad have joined the Nix: Amber De Wit (Nomads), Harriet Muller (Moturoa), Natalie Young (Hamilton Wanderers), and Pia Vlok (Auckland United).
That team didn’t go too well, losing 4-1 to Nigeria, drawing 1-1 with hosts Dominican Republic, and losing 4-0 to Ecuador... but the attacking talent there was awesome. In particular, the skill and speed of Ela Jerez, the craftiness of Pia Vlok, and the goal-scoring threat of Katie Pugh (Pugh is two weeks younger than Vlok and has scored 13 goals in 12 Central League games this year). All three are now in the Phoenix system.
Aotearoa Domestic Football Roundup – August 4
Musical Jam...