The Hot Spot
All Whites at the World Cup, Warriors vs Dolphins preview, Blackcaps & White Ferns, Auckland FC/Lachlan Bayliss, NBL, Wellington Phoenix Women, and more
Scotty’s Word
NZ Warriors play Dolphins on Saturday in a weekend of even match ups across the top three grades...
NRL
Warriors: 2nd | 10-4 | +170
Dolphins: 3rd | 9-5 | +129
NSW Cup
Raiders: 8th | 7-7 | 71
Warriors: 9th | 7-7 | -32
Jersey Flegg Cup
Warriors: 8th | 7-6 | +120
Raiders: 9th | 6-8 | -9
NZW are 4-3 against Dolphins. Both teams have away wins in there and Suncorp Stadium is an Up The Wahs hot-spot in Australia. This serves as a finals footy reminder that NZW have lost many games at Mt Smart and have lots of wins in Australia during the two Andys era. No home ground in Australia is scary for NZW and after seeing lots of NZW fans for a few Broncos games at Suncorp in this period, it should be even more vibrant vs Dolphins.
Dummy half runs per game
Warriors: 8.8
Dolphins: 6.6
Wayde Egan: 4.3 | 47m
Jeremy Marshall-King: 4 | 51m
NZ Kiwis hooker Marshall-King has won all six games he’s played this year for Dolphins. Along with Phoenix Crossland and Brandon Smith, these three give Aotearoa ample dummy half options for the World Cup. Dolphins also have Jamayne Isaako and Kodi Nikorima in fabulous form.
Isaako is the numero tahi Kiwis winger right now, closely followed by Ronaldo Mulitalo, Will Warbrick and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak. Watene-Zelezniak was about to switch to Tonga before getting injured a couple years ago so watch out for that and while he’s worked his way back to the top-tier for Kiwis with good NRL form, Aotearoa can still have three good wingers without him.
Nikorima is part of the best halves depth I’ve ever experienced for Kiwis. Jahrome Hughes and Dylan Brown is the best combo with Brown shining in his move to halfback for Knights. Nikorima and Te Maire Martin are in career-best zones as well. Nikorima is the only pure five-eighth in this group as Martin’s settled as a halfback with NZW but they all have experience doing all the halves stuff.
Egan had 10 runs - 126m @ 12.6m/run and 8 dummy half runs @ 12.5m/DHR vs Cowboys. Not only did Egan tear Cowboys apart around the ruck in the midfield, he also set up a couple of tries with his passing from dummy half. That was his first game with 100+ metres and his second game this season with two try assists. His eight try assists this season is a career high.
NZW won’t have Jackson Ford for a while and probably the rest of the season. Ford joins Tanah Boyd and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck with long-term injuries, while James Fisher-Harris and Leka Halasima have niggly injuries. That’s five of the best players out injured for this game. NZW have been in this space for a few weeks which isn’t ideal but they have held steady with their level of performance.
Mitchell Barnett has returned to offer a Fisher-Harris type of presence and Kurt Capewell’s back from Aussie duty this week. Losing Ford sucks but NZW have gone alright without Boyd or Tuivasa-Sheck and I reckon the young forwards will step up to absorb the loss of Ford.
The most important dudes are Tanner Stowers-Smith and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava. Demitric Vaimauga has a different role in the middle as more of a passer like Erin Clark and the Cowboys game laid this out nicely as Vaimauga had five passes and no other young forward had more than one.
Clark had eight passes which is normal. Barnett had six and this shows the levels of middle forward play as Barnett and Fisher-Harris do all the gritty mahi, as well as consistent involvement in distribution. Clark’s grown into a top-tier Kiwis middle forward by developing that ability and the young forwards lean more towards workers or passers.
Vaimauga loves to run it straight and bounces around to create chaos, as well as doing all the tackling required. Sometimes it looks like he’s not playing well because he shuffles the footy on and doesn’t churn out big stats, but that reflects the role he plays as a middle forward. He’s usually on the field when Clark is off to map this out further.
How did NZW deal with Ford’s absence for 60 minutes vs Cowboys?
Tanner Stowers-Smith: 46 minutes, 18 runs - 180m @ 10m/run, 19 receipts, 32 tackles @ 89%
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava: 45mins, 8 runs - 62m @ 7.7m/run, 9 receipts 25 tackles @ 89%
Demitric Vaimauga: 42mins, 9 runs - 64m @ 7.1m/run, 15 receipts 1 offload, 20 tackles @ 83%
Ieremia-Toeava played a bit of edge forward so he had fewer involvements than Stowers-Smith. Similar game time but Stowers-Smith had 19 receipts and Ieremia-Toeava had nine, along with less tackles. It’s easy not to notice Ieremia-Toeava and that’s a good sign because he’s busy doing the hard mahi like decoy runs, finishing tackles, closing gaps etc.
Stowers-Smith has been awesome this season and he’s usually hitting the 40 minute mark. Ieremia-Toeava has played one less minute than Stowers-Smith in the last two games and this shows how coach Andrew Webster trusts Ieremia-Toeava to do the team-first work.
Keep in mind that Ieremia-Toeava was an awesome 1st 15 player for De La Salle College and after eight games of U19s for NZW, he skipped U21s to move straight into NSW Cup. The 21-year-old has played 52 games of NSW Cup and has already snuck in nine NRL games. Him and Stowers-Smith don’t have the highlights of Leka Halasima, yet the are local juniors who are the exact kinda forwards that winning NRL teams need.
Part of this equation is Jacob Laban who has played 80 minutes in three of his last four games. Marata Niukore has not played 80mins in his seven games this season and has played less than 65mins in every game. Laban has played 65+ minutes in four consecutive games and after starting this season ranked ahead of Niukore as edge forwards, Laban has made that gap bigger throughout the season.
With Capewell back, NZW have two edge forwards who can play 80mins. Laban’s just had a busy phase so he may have a break during the Dolphins game with Niukore or Barnett capable of sliding to the edge. Ford did spend a few minutes at edge forward this season before his injury with the same middle/edge versatility as Barnett and Ieremia-Toeava, but NZW have hungry youngers in both roles who can do the job.
For paid subscribers
Blackcaps at Trent Bridge
White Ferns under-performers vs England in T20Is
Lea Tahuhu vs Rosemary Mair in T20Is
NZ Warriors vs Dolphins match up
Five NZ Warriors juniors of note
It seems like Blair Tickner will come into the Blackcaps Test team for Kyle Jamieson and Mitchell Santner’s in the mix. Tickner is on the list of 10 Blackcaps Test bowlers with 20+ wickets averaging below 27 that I noted in the last dispatch. He has the fewest wickets and the highest average of that legendary list but Tickner deserves his opportunity and was also awesome in ODIs last summer.
Blackcaps with 20-30 wickets and averages below 27
Jacob Duffy: 25w @ 16.28avg
Nathan Smith: 28w @ 25.14avg
Blair Tickner: 22w @ 26.5avg
Santner in Test bowling while also averaging 26 with the bat
Before 2023: 45.6avg/2.7rpo
2023 onwards: 19.7avg/2.9rpo
White Ferns need a win vs England at the T20 World Cup and they are 2-11 vs England in T20Is since the start of 2024. Tricky spot for a must-win game.
Izzy Sharp’s last two scores...
vs Ireland: 36 runs @ 128sr
vs Scotland: 62 runs @ 144sr
Sharp was the leading run-scorer for White Ferns in both wins. She batted seven vs Ireland and three vs Scotland with similar results. Sharp also had a knock of 26* @ 130sr in the T20I series vs England a few weeks ago and she has started her career among Aotearoa’s best T20I batters...
Highest White Ferns T20I batting averages with 100+ runs
Melie Kerr: 2007 runs @ 30.87avg
Izzy Sharp: 234 runs @ 29.25avg
Suzie Bates: 4739 runs @ 28.89avg
Sophie Devine: 3787 runs @ 28.68avg
Highest White Ferns T20I batting strike-rates with 100+ runs
Jess Watkin: 118 runs @ 157.33sr
Izzy Sharp: 234 runs @ 128.57sr
Sophie Devine: 3787 runs @ 122.79sr
Musical jam...
Nick’s Notebook
The Auckland FC refresh has begun with a signing that we already knew was coming but Lachlan Bayliss is a fantastic addition to that AFC midfield all the same. A perfect fit who’ll bring a bit more mobility and, when the stars align, much more of a goal threat from deep than the group of Cam Howieson (1 goal in 45 games), Felipe Gallegos (2 goals in 49 games), Louis Verstraete (4 goals in 53 games), and Jake Brimmer (3 goals in 43 games) without losing much on the technical side of things. Granted, that perfect fit idea applies to Steve Corica’s version of this team and they might choose to change a few things next term... but Corica’s Version is all we’ve got to go by at this stage. Despite Bayliss having some mad versatility, he’d be best utilised in the midfield duo for Auckland.
The odd thing about Bayliss’ breakthrough season is that he did almost all of his attacking work in the space of a five-game window. It was part of an eight-game winning streak that began with a 3-1 win over Auckland FC at Mt Smart. Wins over Melbourne City (1-0) and Western Sydney (2-1) followed and then Bayliss all of a sudden did this...
W 4-1 vs Wellington – Goal & Assist
W 4-1 vs Brisbane – Two Goals
W 3-2 vs Adelaide – Assist
W 3-1 vs Perth – Goal
W 1-0 vs Macarthur - Goal
In that five game window he scored five goals with two assists. He played 27 games overall in that campaign and in the other 22 games he had zero goals and one assist. This is something he’s capable of... but it’s not something he’s ever done consistently and in fact is probably a bit of an overrated aspect within his reputation. But we’ll see if AFC are able to coax a little more consistency out of him with the goal contributions.
The other thing with Bayliss is that he can be a bit dodgy defensively. The Jets were quite an open, attacking team which can leave the midfield exposed at times, plus his numbers are skewed somewhat by alternating between different midfield roles. Nevertheless, he’s certainly not a guy to replace Louis Verstraete... although if they can re-sign LV (or get someone of a similar profile) to put alongside Bayliss then that’s a wicked midfield pairing right there. Because what Bayliss does superbly is he gets his team on the front foot with clever and incisive passing and the ability to claim territory with his dribbling.
Love this signing from AFC. Did wonder if maybe Bayliss might be tempted to move overseas (well, further overseas) but then again he’s really only had one year as a standout A-League player (and only two as a regular starter) so it makes a lot of sense to want to consolidate that.
Despite being born and raised in Darwin, Bayliss does play for the All Whites (and went to the last Olympics with NZ) thanks to the eligibility he inherited from his kiwi father. His dad actually passed away a few years ago, hence his commitment to Aotearoa is a very personal and heartfelt thing. You understand that every time you hear him speak about it. Now he’s taking that commitment further by living and playing in New Zealand at club level too.
Plenty more transfer funkiness going on where that came from. Yesterday there emerged a rumour that Sarpreet Singh has interest in a move to Iraklis in Greece, a club that’s just been promoted to the top flight as second tier champions. Singh was only on loan at the Wellington Phoenix last season and has another year on his contract with TSC Backa Topola in Serbia. Except they got relegated so it’s unlikely he goes back – he joined them because his former Nix boss Darije Kalezic wanted him, then dropped out of the rotation once Kalezic got fired.
That was a pity because he had some good performances in Serbia and it’s not like the Phoenix return did much for him. He got injured straight away and now looks a bit undercooked with his touch at the World Cup. Not with his fitness which has been immense - so much pressing and closing down. But he’s also turning the ball over far too often, not playing in his groove the way that Elijah Just and Callum McCowatt have been. The All Whites need to be at a certain level to get results at a World Cup and the only way they’re getting there is by coaxing the most out of Sarpreet Singh – there’s nobody on the bench with that kinda ceiling (although I am on board with Ryan Thomas starting and Singh being subbed on after an hour or so, to consolidate the midfield vs Belgium and also keep things fresh). Anyway, however the World Cup ends for NZ, Sarpreet Singh is looking for a new gig and it appears he’s already got options.
There was also a rumour linking Elijah Just to Southampton. Bit awkward for his goggle-eyes celebration given how the Saints just got snapped sending a spy with his binoculars to scout Championship opponents. The Singh rumour is weird enough that it’s gotta have some truth to it – nobody would make that up. The Just rumour... not so much.
With Just having been linked to Celtic/Rangers for months already, this one stinks of trying to push up the asking price with a bidding war. Motherwell have qualified for Europe next season. Celtic and Rangers could end up with Champions League. And we’re supposed to want him to join a second tier club whilst in the form of his life because... because it’s in England? There would be Premier League promotion possibilities about it and the Saints probably pay the best of those options. But we’ll see how it goes. Apparently the rumour stems from FootyInsider24/7’s Peter O’Rourke who has a history of saying random stuff. Some of them have been accurate, fair enough, but here are some reasons to be sceptical...
Elijah Just is very likely to be on the move and Southampton is a decent option. Still would rather him at Celtic playing Champions League and winning trophies though.
And then there’s the Wellington Phoenix who have announced five departures from their women’s squad:
Lucia Leon – Not a surprise given one of the attacking imports has to be squeezed out by having Samba and Makala Woods both returning. Leon was excellent with her pressing, not so good on the ball. Only twice played more than 70 mins. She was alright but they’ll be plotting an upgrade. Also, she almost never played in the wing-back position she was presumably signed for.
Emma Pijnenburg – Joined as an injury replacement after wriggling an early release from her Feyenoord contract (where she was getting regular but short substitute appearances) and really came into her own as the season progressed, forming a fine partnership with Grace Jale and becoming a Football Ferns regular. Started all three finals games. But the Nix didn’t have a say in this because EP is going back to the Netherlands where she’s agreed a deal with Hera United. Her new club just got relegated from the Eredivisie so EP’s there to help get them promoted back up again.
Tessel Middag – Another midfielder released, Middag busted her ACL in the first half of the first game but stuck around with the club as an off-field veteran and doing some analyst work as well as chipping in with coaching in the youth spaces. Bit risky sticking with her off the back of that injury in the second year of a championship window under Bev Priestman and you want to at least keep room for one new import.
Ella McMillan – Never got a look-in under Priestman last season. McMillan already left a couple weeks ago to join Waterside Karori in the Central League but will continue on at the Nix as a physical performance scientist for the academy, as she’d already been doing.
Ela Jerez – Another one that Priestman didn’t seem to rate, another one who has already joined another club. Jerez signed with Wellington United where she scored four times on debut in a 13-1 win vs Palmerston North Marist and then scored again in her second match. Not sure why Priestman didn’t see it from Jerez but this won’t be the last you hear from her.
I’ll get into what this means for the WahiNix squad and which players are still unsorted for next season in the stuff beyond the paywall... along with a bit about Danny Hay’s Champions League career and some Football Ferns forecasting
Fastest Top Speeds at the World Cup by Players Aged 37+
Michael Boxall (NZL) – 32.5 km/h
Ivan Perisic (CRO) – 32.2 km/h
Cristiano Ronaldo (POR) – 31.6 km/h
Shoja Khalilzadeh (IRN) – 31.3 km/h
Luka Modric (CRO) – 30.7 km/h
Tim Ream (USA) – 30.5 km/h
Edin Dzeko (BIH) – 29.9 km/h
Lionel Messi (ARG) – 29.7 km/h
Nicolas Otamendi (ARG) – 28.8 km/h
Marko Arnautovic (AUT) – 28.8 km/h
Since initially sharing that stat yesterday, Edin Dzeko has climbed a couple spots while Ivan Perisic has also bridged the gap between Boxy and all the other uncs but number one hasn’t changed. Boxall would still rank third even if you lowered the bar to include all 36 year olds too – with only Enner Valencia (33.1 km/h for ECU) and Ryan Mendes (33.8 km/h for CPV) nudging him among the 26 such fellas to have gotten minutes this World Cup (18 such fellas if you discount the goalies).
Michael Boxall’s Minnesota United coach (Aotearoa’s Cam Knowles) was marvelling a few weeks back about how the ageless Boxy had just broken his personal best historic max speed – this a guy who has been at that club for basically a decade so there’s plenty of data in the tank that he’s competing with. Now we’ve got even more evidence.
Kiwi Stat Leaders from the NZ NBL…
Total Minutes Played
Keanu Rasmussen (Hawke’s Bay) – 480 mins (14gm)
Sam Timmins (Southland) – 465 mins (14 gm)
Kazlo Evans (Manawatu) – 456 mins (14gm)
Kruz Perrott-Hunt (Nelson) – 424 mins (13gm)
Ethan Rusbatch (Otago) – 421 mins (13gm)
Points Per Game
Reuben Te Rangi (Tauranga) – 22.1 ppg
Keanu Rasmussen (Hawke’s Bay) – 20.4 ppg
Kruz Perrott-Hunt (Nelson) – 20.4 ppg
Taylor Britt (Canterbury) – 201. ppg
Taine Murray (Tauranga) – 19.0 ppg
Rebounds Per Game
Sam Timmins (Southland) – 10.6 rpg
Jack Andrew (Canterbury) – 9.5 rpg
Rob Loe (Auckland) – 8.6 rpg
Tohi Smith-Milner (Nelson) – 8.3 rpg
Walter Brown (Canterbury) – 7.8 rpg
Assists Per Game
Taylor Britt (Canterbury) – 7.0 apg
Carlin Davison (Wellington) – 6.7 apg
Keanu Rasmussen (Hawke’s Bay) – 5.9 apg
Rob Loe (Auckland) – 4.9 apg
Alex McNaught (Nelson) – 4.6 apg
Three Pointers Made
Taine Murray (Tauranga) – 36/101 (35.6%)
Brayden Inger (Southland) – 34/76 (44.7%)
Ethan Rusbatch (Otago) – 34/94 (36.2%)
Kruz Perrott-Hunt (Nelson) – 30/83 (36/1%)
Sam Dempster (Nelson) – 27/72 (37.5%)
The per game stats are limited to those who’ve played a minimum of ten games, so Jackson Ball misses out with his 19.8 ppg in eight games for Hawke’s Bay... it didn’t seem right to include him when he hasn’t actually played since going off to do that Eurocamp stuff with the NBL Next Stars team. None of the other stat lists were affected by that limit. Also a reminder that these are only the kiwi players, there are imports ranked higher in all those spots but that’s not what we’re looking at.
Musical Jam...
