The High Upsides
The High Upsides
Kai Kara-France stitch-up, Warriors stat profile, Tall Ferns in Europe, Breakers Next Star, All Whites, Kiwi-NRL goodness + domestic football roundups
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Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Winning Footy Notebook vs Dolphins (Rugby League)
2023 Battle of Aotearoa: Team Tamaki Makaurau (Rugby League)
2023 Battle of Aotearoa: Team Aotearoa (Rugby League)
The 2023 Wellington Phoenix Offseason Preview – Part 1: The Women (Football)
The 2023 Wellington Phoenix Offseason Preview – Part 2: The Men (Football)
Forecasting a Football Ferns FIFA World Cup Squad (Football)
10 Of The Best Emerging Wahine Cricketers In Aotearoa After The 2022/23 Season (Cricket)
The Breakers Struck The Ideal NBL Next Star Balance With Rayan Rupert (Basketball)
27fm Album Jukebox - May 2023 (Music)
Scotty’s Word
It's really easy to not like the UFC. Whether it's the weird antics of the UFC boss or how little fighters are paid, the shine of UFC diminishes as one learns more about it. This can be updated with how UFC fights are judged and while there is little the UFC can do as they parlay blame to each state's 'Athletic Commission' who oversee judging in their respective states, it all mixes together for how UFC operates in 2023.
Kai Kara-France lost his flyweight bout with Amir Albazi despite landing twice as many significant strikes and easily handling takedown attempts from Albazi. Albazi may have landed heavier punches but Kara-France was in control for most of the fight, if not all of the fight considering how Albazi was unable to make the most of his takedowns.
City Kickboxing's grappling defence was on display once again. Kara-France worked through his process of getting back to the cage, fighting Albazi's hands, calmly landing punches while wrapped up. The striking numbers finished with Kara-France landing 99/283 significant strikes while Albazi managed 43/145. Kara-France ramped up his output during the fight to land the most significant strikes in rounds four and five, with the final round being his busiest.
Now Kara-France has lost two in a row. CKB are 2-2 in UFC this year with Shane Young also losing, while Israel Adesanya and Carlos Ulberg have wins. Hooker has a fight coming up in July and Mike 'Blood Diamond' Mathetha had two losses last year with his last fight being almost a year ago. Brad Riddell has dipped out of fighting after he bagged a few losses.
Here is a Winning Footy Notebook for the Warriors win over Dolphins. Below are the updated stats for Warriors this season and I checked how some of these stats compared to last season. The biggest changes are in Linebreaks where Warriors went from 15th to 5th, Post Contact Metres moving from 16th (last) to 8th and Kick Return Metres going from 13th to 3rd.
NZ Warriors stat profile
Tries: 11th - 45
Penalties Conceded: 4th - 78
Missed Tackles: 7th - 418
Offloads: 14th - 90
Dummy Half Runs: 14th - 82
Set Completion: 4th - 80%
Kick Return Metres: 3rd - 2,518 (13th - 3,406)
Kicking Metres: 4th - 7,999
Linebreaks: 5th - 64 (15th - 87)
Post Contact Metres: 8th - 6,367 (16th - 12,654)
Run Metres: 8th - 21,846
Tackle Breaks: 7th - 424
Another comparison is between Andrew Webster (Warriors), Cameron Ciraldo (Bulldogs) and Ivan Cleary (Panthers) who all worked together last season for Panthers. I zoned in on Linebreaks, Missed Tackles and Kick Return Metres which paint an intriguing picture...
Linebreaks
Warriors: 5th - 64
Panthers: 9th - 58
Bulldogs: 17th - 44
Missed Tackles
Bulldogs: 2nd - 461
Warriors: 7th - 418
Panthers: 14th - 359
Kick Return Metres
Panthers: 1st - 2,580
Warriors: 3rd - 2,518
Bulldogs: 6th - 2,191
Cleary obviously has Panthers humming and the other coaches are trying to roll out similar styles to Panthers with their own flavour. Webster was Panthers attack coach and he has boosted linebreaks for Warriors while Ciraldo handled Panthers defence and Bulldogs are the worst team for linebreaks. Ciraldo's defensive juice is not evident in Bulldogs mahi but Webster has impacted Warriors defence. All three teams rely heavily on their back three to start sets.
All three teams have similar fullbacks as well. Dylan Edwards is the best, followed by Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad and Hayze Perham. They are all busy runners who provide security at fullback, reading plays to mop up kicks and rarely making errors. While Bulldogs aren't my favourite team to watch, tracking Rotorua's Perham is a fun exercise in Bulldogs games and he continues to impress as one of the most consistent players for Bulldogs this season.
On top of the Missed Tackles stuff, here are the points conceded by these three teams. Remember Ciraldo is meant to be a defensive coach...
Panthers: 143
Warriors: 244
Bulldogs: 325
I've also been pondering a funky group of outside backs. This started last week with Deine Mariner's performance vs Warriors and the Marist junior slid back to Queenslad Cup with Wynnum for this round. Even though Selwyn Cobbo was injured in Origin, Corey Oates returned on the wing which was a bummer for Mariner.
Valynce Te Whare returned to Aotearoa with Dolphins and he got game time off the bench thanks to an injury to Brenko Lee. The youngster from Otara played 55mins but couldn't do much in a Dolphins team that was physically dominated by Warriors. Tuakau's Adam Pompey handled Te Whare fairly well and hopefully Te Whare can get a steady run if Lee is out injured.
Pompey continues to impress with solid performances at left centre for Warriors, while Rocco Berry suffered a head knock vs Dolphins. Greytown's Berry continues to showcase his talent at centre with sound defence and the same flick pass offloads that Pompey has on the other flank. Under coach Webster Pompey and Berry have been consistently selected and that's all you need to know about their talent.
Northcote junior Keano Kini started at fullback for Titans in their loss to Rabbitohs. Tricky match up for Kini in his first start at fullback and he is unlikely to get consistent game time given Titans depth. Kini has now played two games in his first year out of school and that's a clear indicator of his talent, leaving me curious how he builds on this opportunity.
Glenora's Junior Pauga made his first appearance for Roosters and scored a try pushing up in support of James Tedesco. Pauga fumbled a try-scoring opportunity prior to his try and his performance resembled how Roosters weren't great but got the job done vs Bulldogs. Some lads like Mariner and Kini were schoolboy sensations in Queensland, others like Te Whare or Pauga have battled through situations to wind up in the same spot.
Pauga was a fabulous youngster in the Warriors junior system coming out of Kelston Boys High School. He left to join Wynnum in Queensland Cup and secured a mid-season move to Tigers last year, playing a few NRL games before switching to Roosters over the summer. Now Pauga has commanded an opportunity in NRL for Roosters, selected ahead of another Northcote junior in Jaxson Paulo.
Roosters recruited a few former Warriors juniors alongside Pauga. William Fakatoumafi (Otahuhu) dabbled in Warriors-Redcliffe footy before moving to Panthers last season and now in the Roosters wider mixer with North Sydney Bears. Alfred Smalley (Otahuhu) left Warriors to join Sea Eagles and made his debut with Sea Eagles last year, now he's playing for Bears.
These lads played in a funky NSW Cup game vs Sea Eagles. Smalley scored three tries for Bears, while Morgan Harper (Ngaruawahia) and Jackson Ferris (Kia Ora) scored tries for Sea Eagles.
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
The Tall Ferns are over in Europe at the moment touring the around and getting some game reps. It’s a busy time for the TFs with the Asia Cup taking place in Sydney, Australia starting at the end of this month so this is all big preparation – with the aim being to crack the top four in Asia for the first time – and thus progression into the Olympic qualifiers.
Obviously there’s a shadow hanging over this tour after Mary Goulding was involved in a serious car accident. MG had just gotten back from an achilles tear suffered in the last Tauihi season, which kept her out of the Aussie NBL, but the good news is that she is now out of critical condition as of a couple days ago. Best wishes on a speedy recovery to Mary and the whanau.
Game one of the European tour happened overnight with an 83-64 defeat against Serbia. Serbia, the #8 ranked team in the world and the current European champions (aka miles above our weight class), and they blitzed the NZers early to lead by 31 points at the half on the back of some sizzling three-point shooting in particular.
But the Ferns did win the second half. Charlisse Leger-Walker topped with 15 points while Grace Hunter scored 10 on perfect 4/4 shooting on her TF debut. Krystal Leger-Walker had 7 points and 7 assists. Penina Davidson chipped in with 9pts/8reb. Ash Kelman-Poto, Ritoya Tamilo, and Tayla Dalton also made their international debuts in the game while Kendall Heremaia and Lilly Taulelei were playing their first Tests. So... very inexperienced group overall.
A hefty defeat but that was to be expected against such a powerful opponent and there were definitely positives to build upon. Like, for example, a strong inside presence with the Ferns edging the rebounding and points in the paint stats. Next they take on the same opponents twice more before games against Turkey and Poland round up the tour.
Tall Ferns 2023 European Tour Squad:
Stella Beck, Tayla Dalton, Penina Davidson, Kendell Heremaia, Grace Hunter, Ash Kelman-Poto, Charlisse Leger-Walker, Krystal Leger-Walker, Tera Reed, Ash Taia, Lilly Taulelei & Ritorya Tamilo
Esra McGoldrick is also with them as training depth. Beyond that there’s an 18-woman longlist for the Asia Cup squad which includes Mary Goulding, Lauryn Hippolite, Parris Mason, Chevannah Paalvast, Josephine Trousdell, Tahlia Tupaea, and Amy West. That adds up to 19 players because Hunter’s been called up as a like-for-like Goulding replacement on the wing. Hippolite is away with the 3x3 team hence she’s not there. Paalvast and Tupaea are both injured. Coach Guy Malloy is also coach of the Southland Sharks blokes so he isn’t on the tour, his listed assistants are Jody Cameron, Leanne Walker, and Mel Downer so gonna assume some/all of them have got it covered.
Elsewhere the Tall Blacks are of course preparing for a World Cup in August but they’ll be without Tom Abercrombie who has announced his retirement from internationals (he has signed on for another year with the Breakers though). The sneaky bugger made that public riiiight after we sent out Friday’s email in which I’d listed him in my prospective World Cup squad... so good news for Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa then, s’pose. Abercrombie would’ve been there if available but he’s got other family priorities and committing to another long stint away from home during his offseason was just too much and fair enough.
Abercrombie thus wraps up his Tall Blacks career as one of the rare legends to have played 100+ tests for NZ. Only 11 blokes have achieved that. Rob Loe is the next active player on the list at 85 while Corey Webster is only just behind with 84.
Most Test Caps for Tall Blacks:
Pero Cameron – 191
Kirk Penney – 172
Phill Jones – 163
Mika Vukona – 152
Paul Henare – 125
Lindsay Tait – 116
Casey Frank – 111
Mark Dickel – 106
Tom Abercrombie – 102
Tony Rampton – 102
Dillon Boucher – 100
Rob Loe – 85
Corey Webster – 84
Paora Winitana – 80
Craig Bradshaw – 78
By the way, the TBs World Cup group mates USA have begun to put their roster together with rumours that Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Mikal Bridges, Bobby Portis, Tyrese Haliburton, and Austin Reaves have all put their hands up for the tournament. Which, honestly… isn’t as bad as it could’ve been. Haliburton and Edwards were the only two of that group to make All Stars this year.
Sweden have named their squad to face the All Whites (and also Austria) in two weeks. No Zlatan Ibrahimovic because that fella’s finally retired from pro footy at the age of 42. But plenty of other renowned players in there. Alexander Isak, who nudged Chris Wood out of Newcastle with his arrival. Viktor Claesson who has been a teammate of Marko Stamenic at Copenhagen. Blokes like Victor Lindelof, Dejan Kulusevski, Emil Forsberg. Should be a good test for the kiwis, who’ll presumably name a squad very soon. NZ also plays Qatar in the same international window.
I’d imagine we get that All Whites squad tomorrow or the next day. Looking around the traps, they should have a pretty good bill of health. Only Chris Wood is definitely injured –and Nando Pijnaker is in doubt after going off hurt for Sligo Rovers recently. Ben Waine and Alex Greive both ended their seasons with injuries but have had time to recover. Quite a few guys will be unusually fresh for the end of the European season due to limited gametime. Plus there’s the possibility that Sarpreet Singh, Ryan Thomas, and Niko Kirwan could all be back in the mix after long-term recoveries.
Will there be any U20s lads in the squad? Doubtful given the lack of unavailabilities expected although if Pijnaker doesn’t make it then Finn Surman should be a good shout given the need to freshen up the defensive corps.
Word is that the NZ Breakers are close to securing their next Next Star in 21yo Lithuanian wing Mantas Rubstavicius. MR is a 1.98cm shooting guard/small forward who has already played for his country and has popped up on a couple of ESPN mock drafts already. He’s not gotten big minutes for club Lietkabelis Panevezys but did average 19.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game at the European U20s champs, top scoring for the entire tournament including scoring 38 points in a quarter-final win over France (Lithuania lost in the final).
This bloke wouldn’t rock up with the high upside of Rayan Rupert or Ousmane Dieng... but he is a couple of years older than those guys were and with his shooting ability should be more ready to go from day one. Whether he can maintain good minutes will depend on his defensive abilities.
This is a continuation of aiming European with the Next Stars for the Breakers but it is a bit different in that the last three guys were all French. So far all four NZB Next Stars have gone on to be drafted (counting Hugo Besson, even if technically he was an import since you’re only allowed one per year), with Rupert sure to make it 5/5 on June 23 NZT when the 2023 edition takes place. Rubstavicius feels like he could be on the fringes though. However if he does prove a more immediate contributor, with scoring always a valued asset, and with Next Stars effectively occupying a bonus roster spot... I dunno, I kinda like the focus shifting further towards the best option for the team rather than the best option for the player’s career.
Alrighty then, time for another domestic football weekend roundup...
These long weekends often mean cup football and there were some chunky Kate Shep and Chatham Cup fixtures as we’re now deep enough into the regional rounds that a few top teams began meeting each other. One such standout fixture was Auckland City beating Auckland United thanks to a couple of second half goals. Liam Gillion on 54’ then Ryan De Vries continuing his strong OCL form with a late clincher on 88’. The holders therefore progress into the third round while AUFC become one of the first big dogs to tumble. As do Manurewa who were beaten 1-0 by Eastern Suburbs due to an 86th minute Jake Mechell goal. The top four teams in the Northern League were drawn against each other. Only two could progress.
Poor conditions meant that Tauranga City vs Manukau United had to be postponed (hope Manukau flew instead of driving, otherwise that’s a long day of nothing), so that one’s yet to be decided, but otherwise the only additional Northern League team to fail to progress was Bay Olympic who fell 1-0 to West Coast Rangers – so the three tier one Northern teams to get bounced all lost to higher ranked tier one clubs.
Biggest win of the round was Nelson Suburbs 9-0 Motueka in that local derby. Wellington Olympic also scored nine in a 9-3 win over Wainuiomata. One game went to penalties, that was Miramar Rangers vs Stop Out. 4-4 after extra time then 4-3 to Stop Out on pens. Absolutely mental game in which Rangers equalised on 85’, conceded on 87’, equalised again in the last ditch moments of 90+6’. Scored a third equaliser in extra time. But ultimately went down.
Wanaka beat Dunedin City Royals in one upset. Another was South Auckland Rangers topping North Shore United 2-1, a team two divisions above them. West Auckland won 2-0 away to Metro despite being a tier lower on the pyramid. Also fair play to Petone who’ve been doing good things this year, they scored a 90+4’ winner to get past Whanganui Athletic.
Round 2 of the Kate Sheppard Cup wasn’t quite as funky but it had its moments. Petone knocking out Waterside Karori was notable. Coastal Spirit and Cashmere Tech had a ding-dong battle that went to extra time after Tech had levelled up with five to play. But Coastal took it 4-2 in extras. Britney Lee Nicholson with a brace.
This is the round where the top Auckland clubs join in and many of the favourites had chunky victories, though towering above them all were Eastern Suburbs and Western Springs. The Lilywhites went nuts with a 10-0 win over Northern Rovers with Aimee Atkins and Zoe Benson getting doubles... it was 5-0 after 27 minutes in that one. Then Western Springs were even more emphatic against Lakes FC. They won handily last week in their first game since the board dramas but that had nothing on this. They were 3-0 up after 10 minutes. They were 6-0 up after 17 minutes. They were 8-0 up after 32 minutes. Then they chilled out on the way to a 12-0 win. Sofia Garcia scored five times.
Three NRFL Prem teams were knocked out: West Coast Rangers who lost to fellow top flight team Ellerslie, 4-1 the score there; Northern Rovers who were thrashed by Eastern Subs; and also Hibiscus Coast were dropped by Auckland United.
Most leagues only played cup fixtures this week but the Northern League has more teams and thus has to cram things in. Double banger weekend for those lads. Auckland City returned to domestic action with a 3-1 win away to Western Springs on Friday night. Then on Saturday there was a 3-1 Birkenhead win over Manurewa to tighten up that top four race once again. Only three points between Birko in fifth and Rewa/AK United in third/fourth.
Hamilton Wanderers edged West Coast Rangers 3-2. Auckland United blew past Takapuna to be 4-0 up after 50 minutes... then got sloppy in the latter stages to only win 4-3 in the end (last goal was in the 95th min tbf, so not much time to respond). Bay Olympic were 3-0 up against Manukau United at half-time but were hauled all the way back for a 3-3 draw that ensures that BO stays out of the relegation zone but Manukau do climb off bottom ahead of Taka.
Some incredible games there though the best of them may well have been Eastern Suburbs vs Melville. It was 1-0 to Melville thanks to an Erik Panzer goal on 65’... before Suburbs got a red card (to Stephen Hoyle) on 78’ to boost the visitors even more. But the Lilywhites scored not once but twice in stoppage time thanks to Ryan Verney and Jayden Scott to win 2-1 and keep that nine-point lead above Auckland City (on account of ACFC’s three games in hand). Mad action.