The Form Hoist
The Form Hoist
Blackcaps vs England fallout, Breakers make the NBL Finals, Footy Ferns and White Ferns thoughts, plus plenty more
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How Canterbury Magicians Sent Amy Satterthwaite Out As A Champion (Cricket)
How Northern Brave Won Back To Back Super Smash Championships (Cricket)
Mid-Test Tom Blundell Appreciation (Blackcaps vs England) (Cricket)
The Brooklyn Nets Blockbuster Era Is Over, Now Sean Marks Can Get Back To What He Does Best (Basketball)
Five Standout Prospects From The Wellington Phoenix Academy's Class Of 2022 (Football)
Looking Back on Chris Wood’s 53 Weeks As A Newcastle United Player (Football)
Milly Clegg Is An Absolute Unicorn Of A Kiwi Centre-Forward Prospect (Football)
2022 Women’s National League – Team of the Season (Football)
10 Funky Kiwi-NRL Youngsters For 2023 (Rugby League)
The Kiwi-NRL Juniors Who Helped Australian Teams Make Finals In 2022 (Rugby League)
2022 Kiwi-NRL Team Power Rankings (Rugby League)
Scotty’s Word
As vibrant as the atmosphere was at Bay Oval in the first Test between Aotearoa and England, it was also a grind for kiwi cricket fans. Forget the gimmicky label that media folks want to use, England are simply better at Test cricket than Blackcaps. Better batters, better bowlers… and they are enjoying the favour of the cricketing gods.
Aotearoa has lost four Tests in a row to England. Losses by at least 5 wickets in three Tests last year, now a loss by 267 runs.
These Tests aren't part of the World Test Championship but that framework helps lay things out further. Blackcaps are 8th, slightly better than Bangladesh. Blackcaps have a win percentage of 27.27. England are 5th with a win percentage of 46.97. England won five Tests in a row prior to this tour and Blackcaps have three losses then two draws.
Keep in mind that Blackcaps have played five World Cups since the start of 2015, making three finals and two semi-finals. That's a tremendous record although Blackcaps have stunk since their World Test Championship glory. Some of this is their own doing such as confusing selections and murky plans. Some stuff is out of their control such as Kyle Jamieson's injuries, Trent Boult opting to surf more, and various retirements.
Blackcaps were graced with ample good fortune to win the WTC. They are now on the flipside of that and England seems to have snapped up the momentum.
Despite the entire Blackcaps batting unit struggling in this Test, Henry Nicholls is on the form hoist. Nicholls does not have a 50+ score in his last 10 games which includes some domestic cricket. His Test batting averages are also moving in the wrong direction: 47.33avg (2020), 35.88avg (2021), 27.9avg (2022), 10.5avg (2023).
Nicholls batted fourth in both innings. Will Young pounced on his opportunity to open in Test cricket, but he settled into a strong domestic career (40+ average in FC and LA) batting mostly fourth and sometimes third. A Nicholls/Young swap seems most likely, although Nicholls has a habit of grabbing a score when he needs it and he may do exactly that in Wellington.
The seam bowling department should look different for Friday's Test. Matt Henry returns to the mix while Ish Sodhi and Jacob Duffy have been released from the squad.
It was a weird bowling unit for this Test at Bay Oval. I have steadily highlighted how Bay Oval is one of the least kiwi decks in Aotearoa and I don't think it helped three 'hit the deck/hard lengthy' seamers.
Bangladesh defeated Blackcaps at Bay Oval last summer after playing a warm up game at the same venue. Bangladesh enjoyed kiwi conditions that suited them. Blackcaps have now lost two in a row at Bay Oval and both losses have featured one Blackcaps spinner, while Kane Williamson got a twirl in the two wins. More importantly, all four opponents have deployed two spinners at Bay Oval.
2019 vs England: Leach/Root - Santner/Williamson
2020 vs Pakistan: Shah/Masood/Sohail - Santner/Williamson
2022 vs Bangladesh: Mehidy/Shanto - Ravindra
2023 vs England: Leach/Root - Bracewell
That was the opportunity to play Sodhi alongside Bracewell, fresh off the series in Pakistan.
The Bay Oval stint and the last few years tracking Aotearoa vs England offers Blackcaps Test clarity. Blackcaps enjoyed a strong phase against England before their Ashes disaster in Australia last summer led to an overhaul and change in fortunes. In four years of Bay Oval Tests, Blackcaps won two by hefty margins and are now losing Tests in Aotearoa.
Between 2018 and 2021, Blackcaps went 10-0-3 for Tests in Aotearoa. No losses, 10 wins in 13 Tests. From 2021 to now, Blackcaps are 3-3. They haven't been good enough to grind out a draw in Aotearoa. Blackcaps have shifted from unbeatable in Aotearoa to being victims.
That's the reality of Blackcaps Test cricket right now. Some tweaks could help, although it also feels like Blackcaps need to pay the piper for their WTC championship run.
This is also super weird...
Michael Bracewell and Mitchell Santner are basically the same cricketer. While these stats tell that story, they also have similar skillsets and play the same role in the Test team. Keep this in mind when Bracewell is being talked up as Santner was doing the same stuff.
Michael Bracewell
Test: 23.33avg/42.62avg (batting/bowling)
FC: 32.76avg/45.69avg
Mitchell Santner
Test: 24.7avg/45.63avg
FC: 29.3avg/47.22avg
White Ferns might yet make the T20 World Cup semi-finals. Wins over Bangladesh and Sri Lanka (this morning) have brought the kiwis back to par, now waiting to see what happens between South Africa and Bangladesh. South Africa need to win and they have a better net-run-rate prior to that game, so a win will be good enough to see the hosts jump ahead of Aotearoa.
The good things...
Suzie Bates scored two ducks, then 81* and 56. This is Bates' second best year of T20I batting (45.66avg/121.23sr) and her first year averaging over 32 since 2018.
Bernadine Bezuidenhout has a strike-rate of 155.17 and Maddy Green has a strike-rate of 142. This is Green's highest T20I strike-rate in 10 years of T20I batting and last year's 116.58sr was her previous best.
Amelia Kerr hit her first T20I 50+ score. A-Kerr is second for WF runs and third for wickets at this tournament.
Hannah Rowe has been allowed to bowl! Rowe has 3w @ 9avg/4.5rpo after playing as a batter against Australia. Rowe is one of five WF batters scoring over 100sr.
Eden Carson is the second best WF bowler with 6w @ 11.33avg/6.18rpo.
Lea Tahuhu is the best WF bowler with 8w @ 11.87avg/6.33rpo. Tahuhu and Carson have taken wickets in three consecutive games.
The not so good...
Sophie Devine isn't bowling and she's got 19 runs @ 6.33avg/61.3sr.
Fran Jonas has 1w @ 53avg/7.57rpo.
Hayley Jensen did nothing with the bat and 2w @ 26avg/8.66rpo makes her the most expensive WF bowler.
Coach Ben Sawyer has rolled out a different team for each game and this makes it tricky to assess. Sawyer has tinkered with the top-order batting section as well as the Rowe/Jensen pocket and the Penfold/Jonas bowling zone. Apart from throwing things at the wall and seeing what sticks, there doesn't seem to be a clear plan in place.
Bates/Devine/Berny/A-Kerr/Green/Rowe/Jensen/Tahuhu/J-Kerr/Carson/Jonas
Berny/Bates/Plimmer/A-Kerr/Devine/Green/Jensen/Tahuhu/J-Kerr/Carson/Jonas
Berny/Bates/A-Kerr/Devine/Green/Plimmer/Rowe/Tahuhu/J-Kerr/Penfold/Carson
Berny/Bates/A-Kerr/Devine/Green/Plimmer/Rowe/Tahuhu/J-Kerr/Carson/Jonas
Let this serve as a caution about WF. They won games they should have and lost by hefty margins against better teams. Various players were brought in and shuffled out prior to this tournament. During this tournament a different team has been deployed for each game. This is just as weird as all things Blackcaps right now and I'm not sure how to view a possible WF semi-final when there is no cohesion in their 1st 11.
Quick HBJ Shield note...
Gabby Sullivan took 5 wickets this weekend in HBJ Shield and she is on a five game streak of 2+ wickets. Sullivan was the leading Super Smash wicket-taker with 21w @ 12.38avg/5.88rpo and is currently leading HBJ Shield bowlers with 16w @ 12avg/3.52rpo.
Black Sticks Women are also in a weird zone, with two draws this weekend in FIH Pro League and two shootout losses. Aotearoa is now 7th on the ladder and more games need to be played for all teams to sort out the rankings, although no one should expect the kiwis to rise up the ladder anytime soon.
For context, BS Men haven't finished higher than 8th in three seasons and don't win many Pro League games. BS Women have finished 6th or 7th, loitering in the middle for their three seasons and start this campaign near the bottom.
BS Women played China (6th) and USA (8th). Not the strongest hockey nations and Aotearoa usually performs well against such teams. Unfortunately, these two games for BS Women helped me develop my 'three fundamentals of bad hockey'...
1) Passing backwards. BS Women kept going backwards. Any counter-attack chance went backwards, turnovers got passed to defenders and if they could pass behind the goal, they probably would have.
2) Dribbling into cul-de-sacs. Dead end, no exit. If the kiwis weren't passing backwards, they dribbled into multiple defenders and lost the ball. When bursting down the field in attack, they drifted wide, ended up in the corner with a bunch of defenders circling them.
3) Losing contests. Physical battles for the ball were lost by BS Women. Passes became contests, missing traps became contests and trying to exit from defence was one big contest. None of that is good and losing those mini contests is even worse.
Shootouts don't happen in every game, so they can't be a fundamental element. BS Women scored in one of there nine shootout chances across both game. That's not good either.
Less rugby league today as I've been deep in other mangroves. I did record a Kiwi-NRL Spotlight/Blackcaps video for the Patreon whanau today, so check that out if you're part of the Patreon whanau or want to generously support the Niche Cache.
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
The Breakers are headed to the NBL Finals! It’s still hard to fathom how they went from such a mess over the last three or four years to regaining their past status as a role model organisation in one drastic shift. But it goes to show how powerful a proper team culture and a great head coach can be.
Sorry, but Mody Maor not winning Coach of the Year at the NBL awards was an absolute travesty. I had been thinking of ways to justify Sydney Kings’s Chase Buford winning it as the coach of the best team but then Adam Foorde of Cairns got the gong and there’s literally nothing that team does which the Breakers don’t do slightly better. Come on now.
Anyway, the game three decider against the Tasmania JackJumpers was a belter of a contest. The Breakers started slow as Tazzie’s work in the paint set an early tone on the way to a 13-2 early lead, not helped by an overreliance on threes from the home side. But the Breaks weren’t long on chasing them down. A couple of adjustments and things got very fun in a hurry. Barry Brown Jr entered the game and took it over. Rob Loe had a fantastic impact late in the first quarter.
They were still down 25-21 after the first ten minutes yet further BBJ spice soon altered that fact. His steal and assist to Dererk Pardon sent the Breakers into their first lead with 8:32 to go in the second frame (up 27-25) and offensive rebounds and steals continued to inspire dominance. They led 49-42 at the half. Pretty soon that lead was up to as many as 15 points (63-48, mid-3Q).
Barry Brown was off the damn leash in how he took this thing over... although Jack McVeigh did his bit to keep the visitors close as foul trouble loomed for the aggressive Breakers. That lead was down to three points after the third quarter. JackJumpers clawing back. Breakers missing too many tough shots – particularly from deep, shooting 6/26 from deep for the game (Brown and Le’Afa were the only dudes to buck that trend). Then Jarrell Brantley fouled out with a little under five mins remaining.
But in the end there was simply no stopping the remarkable Barry Brown who threw up a silky left-handed lay-up followed by a top-of-the-key three in a quick burst highlighted the surge into Breakers unassailability - BBJ scored 11 points in the 13-2 run that blew the game open. He finished with 32 points on 10/16 shooting. Pardon added 15 points and 13 rebounds and some pristine defence. As a team the Breakers shot 24/24 from the free throw line. Izayah Le’Afa had three steals to go with his 10 points. Brantley had 14p/7r. Rob Loe chipped in with 11p/8r. Brilliant yarns.
Earlier on Sunday arvo/evening, the Sydney Kings had beaten the Cairns Taipans pretty comfortably (79-64) to book their own place in the NBL Finals... which due to the upcoming FIBA window won’t actually start until after the calendar flips into March. That means the two best teams over the course of the season competing for the championship, can’t argue with that outcome.
The Kings have been the clear one to the Breakers clear two but it wasn’t that long ago that the Breaks beat Sydney in Sydney. Both teams had away wins during the season head to heads, in fact. That alone is enough to know that it’ll be a competitive series. That’s a five-game series too, with games two and four at Spark Arena in Auckland.
Prior to that... the Tall Blacks have games against Saudi Arabia and Lebanon. Those are World Cup qualifiers – that World cup taking place in August this year – with the TB’s having already qualified. There were a handful of Breakers named in that extended squad but you’d imagine they’re all withdrawn now to protect them for the NBL Finals. Coach Pero Cameron did hint that would be the case with the initial 24-man group mostly built around NBL players. The games themselves will see the group narrowed down to 12 as per the pesky rules.
Sure enough, coming in just under the buzzer, here’s that confirmed squad with no Breakers involved (still a solid group tho)…
Righto, the Football Ferns kick off against Argentina in a couple of hours (7pm Monday) and there’s suddenly a lot at stake after a rather awful effort, particularly in the second half, against Portugal on Friday. If I’d had access to electricity then I’d have written about it on Saturday morn. Instead I had to settle for a Twitter thread and this email. Here ya go anyway.
Funny thing is, they weren’t actually that bad in the first half. Things looked decent with the switch to a back three helping free up space in the midfield, with Olivia Chance in particular able to get onto the ball in some dangerous areas. There were chances created. Chance herself had a couple while Gabi Rennie scored from one that was ruled out for offside in the build-up.
Meanwhile the Portuguese may have gone into the sheds up 2-0 but they were simple preventable (and therefore fixable) errors that led to both goals from Kate Taylor who is still an international rookie and wouldn’t have been starting had Rebekah Stott not been injured. Like, that’s Stotty’s spot. She’s one of the major beneficiaries if they stick with a back three.
The 3-5-2 shape seems to suit a lot more players than it doesn’t. Katie Bowen is able to play in the same LCB role she does for Melbourne City. CJ Bott and Ali Riley can play further forward, being more influential in the attacking game. For Riley that means crosses into the box. For Bott that means give-and-gos, high pressing, and overlaps. It’s certainly more in line with the best positions for Liv Chance and Betsy Hassett too. Grace Jale cops a setback if they stick with this shape right as she was seemingly grabbing a hole of the right midfield role. But Jale should also be in the convo to start up front and would quite like to get a look at that idea over these two Argy games.
Will they stick with the formation? They should, at least in games where they expect fairly even contests. If it’s a top-ranked opponent on the cards then 4-4-2 does help them stay compact and defensively sound. The good thing is they can alternate between them for those different occasions once they’ve got a hang of things. Tom Sermanni did similar in his time.
It was disappointing to be 2-0 down at the break but it still felt like the Ferns were a chance of scoring next and getting back into it. Then came the second half. Kate Taylor was much better in that spell, she’s a resilient sort with huge potential so nothing to worry about there... sadly everyone else around her got worse. Portugal made a couple sharp changes and they cut off the midfield areas, isolating Malia Steinmetz and the defence, and the Ferns did not cope well. Further errors led to further goals. In the end they lost 5-0.
Now, I know I’ve been bleating on about the Ferns results against top-20 nations and against those outside the top-20. Portugal are outside the top-20... but only just. They’re a team on the rise as women’s footy is finally getting genuine resources there. It’s started with their club sides. Hannah Wilkinson played a season for Sporting Lisbon a couple years ago. Vic Esson’s Rangers were knocked out of Champions League qualifying by Benfica a few months back. Now it’s filtering into the national team which has been surging up the rankings lately and quite frankly their 22 ranking may not be indicative of their actual level.
They smoked the Ferns here. The Ferns were bad but Portugal were also fantastic and they absolutely deserve to be back here for the World Cup – whether that happens or not depends on whether they can beat Cameroon on Wednesday night.
The sad thing is that when a nation like Portugal get serious about their women’s team, there’s nothing that New Zealand can do to stick with them. We don’t have the money or the facilities or the professionalism or the proximity to even stronger nations. It may seem like the Fernies are falling backwards but I genuinely don’t think they’re any worse than they were ten years ago (other than a lack of Abby Erceg and Amber Hearn, perhaps). The squad is definitely deeper than ever before. But, you know, not as deep as Portugal who made constant subs in that second half without dropping their standards at all, compared to the Ferns who are desperately missing Ria Percival and, for this game, Rebekah Stott and Vic Esson too.
Those are the brutal facts but nobody should be surprised, really. Not sure why anyone would expect Aotearoa to be able to produce a top-20 ranked women’s football team. Nobody has that expectation on the men’s side, that’s for sure. If the All Whites lost 5-0 to Portugal there wouldn’t be much of a kerfuffle at all. Par for the course.
But that’s not to excuse a really poor overall performance from the Football Ferns just five months out from a home World Cup. The USA games had been freebies given the non-window status and how good the Americans are. Many of Jitka Klimkova’s other tours have had limited squads due to covid and injuries, etc. Perhaps there was an element of expecting things to click immediately now that it’s all gotten serious, which in turn caught them off guard when Portugal buried their chances as smoothly as they did. Well, they’ve had their wake-up call – and it’s better now than at the World Cup itself. It’s not about dwelling on that result. It’s all about how they respond against Argentina. Suddenly these two games are absolutely massive.
Keep in mind that Argentina aren’t as good as Portugal. They won’t be as ruthless in punishing out mistakes - for whatever reason the South American nations (outside Brazil) haven’t really caught onto the wave of women’s footy on the same level as the European teams so we might still have a few more years of being able to beat teams like this. Portugal though... the way they took their opportunities in front of goal put the kiwis to shame.
Yes, the biggest issue the Ferns have is creating chances in the first place. But they also aren’t very good finishers when they do. Let’s say they didn’t have VAR and the Kate Taylor penalty wasn’t awarded. And honestly why did they bother with VAR in a friendly game anyway? I know these games are sorta latched onto the WC qualifiers but it’s still silly. If that penalty wasn’t given and Liv Chance had buried that one big chance she had, or Wilkinson had stayed onside for the Rennie goal... this game has a whole different complexion. But they’re not converting those ones at the moment and therefore the goals they do concede feel even heavier than they should. Fingers crossed for better tonight.
The progress that the Welly Nix Women’s team are making is quite obvious and is being rewarded by national team call-ups. However don’t sleep on the value of the Phoenix now having a full-on women’s academy too. With the first team on an international break last weekend, it seems that intra-squad fixtures were the go...
Plenty of familiar first team faces in that pic, but also note a few other prospects in there (and not all of them U20s either). I’ve never actually seen a Phoenix Women’s Academy/U20 squad list named anywhere but from this group I do recognise Emma Main (25), Aimee Feinberg-Danieli (GK in green), Macey Fraser (11), and Tui Dugan (8). All past National League standouts. Fraser and Dugan represented the club at their initial launch before they’d actually signed any senior players. Note that Alyssa Whinham’s back amongst it too. There’s plenty more going on below the surface with the WahiNix. Just sayin’.
Plus there’s also this...
It’s mostly the same as the squad for the U19 championships that qualified the NZers for the upcoming U20 World Cup. A few notable changes though.
In: Alby Kelly-Heald, Joshua Galletly, Matt Foord, Oliver Middleton, Oscar Obel-Hall, Roman Engle, Ty Cobb, William Pierce
Out: Oliver Fay, Noah Karunaratne, Joe Knowles, Oscar Mason, Jackson Manuel, Seb Barton-Ginger, Wilson Souphanthanvong & Finn Surman
The short notice nature of this tour means that you can’t read too much into who’s not been picked. Some of those will be logistical things – for example no Finn Surman and Noah Karunaratne (perhaps Jackson Manuel too) as they hover around the Phoenix first team. Did notice that they’ve got two new keepers in though. Alby Kelly-Heald and Matthew Foord replacing Oscar Mason and Joe Knowles. Plus Henry Gray appears to have signed with Eastern Suburbs ahead of the upcoming season (had heard whispers he’d had a trial with Central Coast).
Can’t tell you anything about the two Aussie-based fellas Engle and Cobb because I’ve never seen them play. I have seen a lot of those other newbies though. Joshua Galletly is an excellent creative midfielder and set piece specialist who had a fantastic season with Melville in 2022 and earned himself a trial with Melbourne City. Should probably have been in the U19s to begin with. Auckland United’s Oliver Middleton is also a creative midfield type, a smaller lad with a silky touch. William Pierce of Christchurch United is a wide forward with a bit of pace. Plus Oscar Obel-Hall’s a funky one as he’s been over in the U19s team at Esbjerg for a couple years now, a striker who also came through Christchurch United.
I’m expecting Kees Sims to turn up for the World Cup itself, probably as first choice keeper. It’ll be interesting to see if there are any other overseas players or dual-nations who emerge from the woodwork by then. There’s usually one or two.