The Forecast
The Forecast
Flying Kiwis transfer watchlist, Kiwi-NRL 1st XV backgrounds, HBJ Shield youngsters to watch, tall Blackcaps seamers, James McGarry in Europe & more
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2023/24 Ford Trophy: Best Young/Emerging Lads Ahead Of Super Smash (Cricket)
2023/24 Blackcaps Summer: Blackcaps vs Bangladesh ODI Series Preview (Cricket)
2023/24 HBJ Shield: Round Three Notebook (Leigh Kasperek, Saffron Wilson, Rosemary Mair) (Cricket)
The NZ Breakers Have Plummeted Again... What’s Going On? (Basketball)
The Long, Confusing Timeline of Steven Adams’ Knee Injury (Basketball)
Flying Kiwis – December 13 (Football)
Exploring The Wellington Phoenix’s Efficiency Boost Under Giancarlo Italiano (Football)
Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Six Sneaky Juniors To Learn About (Cricket)
Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Signing Kurt Capewell & Depth Chart (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
In our latest Niche Cast, I updated how many Kiwi-NRL lads played 1st 15 rugby union. This came about thanks to headlines around Solomon Alaimalo leaving Super Rugby to join Tigers and Caleb Clarke training with Rabbitohs, as well as the ongoing league vs union coverage in mainstream media. Here is Alaimalo with Oliver Lawry at Tigers training - both played 1st 15 in Canterbury…
Most of NZ Warriors juniors played 1st 15 and many did so while they were playing rugby league. There are more youngsters who played 1st 15 than those who strictly played rugby league...
Demitric Sifakula: De La Salle College (Otahuhu)
Ali Leiataua: Kings College (Papatoetoe)
Zyon Maiu'u: Kelston Boys High School (Glenora)
Jacob Laban: St Bernard's College/Kelston Boys High School (Randwick)
Tanner Stowers-Smith: St Bede's College (Halswell)
Selumiela 'Leka' Halasima: Southern Cross Campus (Mangere East/Otahuhu)
Patrick Moimoi: De La Salle College (Mt Albert)
Etuate Fukofuka: St Peter's College
Presley Seumanu-Tigafua: St Peter's College
Eddie Ieremia: De La Salle College (Otara)
Sio Kali: St Paul's College (Pt Chevalier)
In the wider NRL squad the following lads have hearty rugby union backgrounds...
Rocco Berry: St Pat's Silverstream
Adam Pompey: Wesley College
Tom Ale: Mt Roskill Grammar, Wesley College, Rotorua Boys High School (Bay Roskill)
Kalani Going: Mid-Northern
Sanele Aukusitino: St Patrick's College
The NZ Kiwis team who defeated Australia 30-0 featured these lads with 1st 15 backgrounds...
Matthew Timoko: Auckland Grammar (Otahuhu)
Joseph Manu: Tokoroa High School
Jamayne Isaako: Shirley Boys High School/St Bede's College (Aranui)
James Fisher-Harris: Whangarei Boys High School (Whangarei Marist)
Nelson Asofa-Solomona: Wellington College (Upper Hutt)
Leo Thompson: Napier Marist
Naufahu Whyte: Kelston Boys High School (Bay Roskill)
Keano Kini: Rosmini College (Northcote)
Wiremu Greig: Whangarei Boys High School (Northern Swords)
This flows throughout the Kiwi-NRL junior ranks and there are far too many to list. Two notable lads from this year's Kiwi-NRL Juniors Who Helped Australian Teams Make Finals yarn with 1st 15 backgrounds are John Fineanganofo (Auckland Grammar School) and Tavita Henare-Schuster (Palmerston North Boys High School).
All of which was amplified by the news of Tevita Nafauhu and Caelys Putoko entering NRL systems, both of which were covered in recent newsletters. Naufahu joined Dolphins after finishing at St Kentigern College and Putoko joined Titans after leaving Hamilton Boys High School. Both were in the NZ Schools team and a few months after being in the 1st 15 of Aotearoa schoolboy footy, they are training with NRL teams.
To help with NZW junior identification (first two are Zyon Maiu’u and Tanner Stowers-Smith)…
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Also in our latest podcast was a note about Henry Shipley being a forgotten geezer amongst the Will O'Rourke hype. Shipley has 15w @ 23.93avg/5.5rpo in ODIs this year for Blackcaps which makes him the only kiwi with 10+ wickets and an average below 25 (eight lads have 10+ wickets). Shipley is behind Adam Milne (9w @ 20.4avg) and Daryl Mitchell (9w @ 22.6avg) as the lowest bowling averages for Blackcaps ODI bowlers.
Shipley has been playing for my new favourite cricket club Darfield but I'm not sure of his bowling status and he hasn't played for Canterbury this summer. This means that my dream of Shipley, O'Rourke and Kyle Jamieson being in the same bowling attack is yet to manifest, but the nugget of Aotearoa having three tall, talented, skillful lads in the mix still applies.
Shipley and Jamieson are genuine all-rounders in domestic cricket, O'Rourke's more of a straight up seamer. Here are their (batting | bowling) stats across the three formats...
Kyle Jamieson
FC: 19.2avg/52sr | 22.4avg/2.8rpo
List-A: 29avg/101sr | 32.3avg/5.3rpo
T20: 25.6avg/132sr | 25.5avg/8.4rpo
Henry Shipley
FC: 26.7avg/56sr | 29.1avg/3.4rpo
LA: 18.2avg/89sr | 37.2avg/5.8rpo
T20: 19.7avg/139sr | 24.8avg/8.4rpo
Will O'Rourke
FC: 11.3avg/29sr | 28avg/3.1rpo
LA: 8avg/41sr | 22avg/4.8rpo
T20: 22avg/115sr | 27.5avg/7.9rpo
You'll also hear a lot about Josh Clarkson in the upcoming Blackcaps ODI series. Central Districts all-rounder Will Clark has been leading my Ford Trophy coverage in recent weeks though. Here is how their one-day/T20 mahi compares to each other ...
Josh Clarkson
LA: 32avg/98sr | 25.7avg/5.3rpo
T20: 29.1avg/150sr | 31.4avg/9.2rpo
Will Clark
LA: 64avg/99sr | 23.4avg/5.3rpo
T20: 71avg/124sr | (yet to bowl)
Clarkson’s stats highlight how he deserves his opportunity. Clark is 22-years-old and hasn’t found consistent game time until recently, with Clarkson leaving an enticing hole for Clark to fill in Super Smash.
Five HBJ Shield youngsters to ponder ahead of Super Smash...
Izzy Sharp: Best young hitter in women's cricket with Canterbury. 19yrs.
Kate Chandler: Classy all-rounder. Crisp attacking strokes and leg-spin for Wellington. 17yrs.
Saffron Wilson: Century maker in HBJ Shield scored at 112sr batting for Otago with strike-rate of 97 in HBJ Shield. 22yrs
Georgia Atkinson: Crafty all-rounder for Central Districts. Lots of reverse dabs/sweeps etc and leg-spin. 23yrs.
Kayley Knight: Best young seamer in women's cricket with Northern, averaging below 27 in both formats. 20yrs.
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
There are only a couple more weeks left in the year and you know what that means... that special season is almost upon us: the January Transfer Window. The last couple of instances have been fantastic for kiwi footballers making big moves and there’s no reason why this next one shouldn’t deliver a few more bangers. Some of them will come out of the blue. Others can be pretty easily forecast.
Here are a few players that I’ll be paying close attention to when 1 January 2024 hits us...
Jacqui Hand – Has announced that she’s leaving Aland United (Finland) after two years there. She won the Finnish Cup in 2022 and was nominated for Forward of the Year in 2023. Goals and assists all over the place. Following a strong World Cup there’s no doubt that she’s ready for the next step... word outta Scandinavia is that she’s been training with an English Championship club recently, which is a level that she should be able to contribute at immediately.
Nando Pijnaker – Expected to leave Sligo Rovers after a pretty disappointing end to 2023 that saw them finish one place above the relegation zone. They relied on Max Mata’s goals too much then fell to pieces after he left... with Pijnaker’s first eleven status suffering as a result (perhaps with his impending free agency a factor). Mata went to England’s League One, though had more of a profile thanks to his form. We’ll see what the future holds for Nando but you know what’d be cool? A reuniting with Mata at Shrewsbury, first off, since those guys are basically a package deal (and it was reported that the Shrews were scouting both of them prior to signing Mata)... or maybe his old U20s coach Des Buckingham at Oxford United might jump in the DMs.
The USA College Grads – Not sure we’ll see anything special on the blokes’ side, but there are a bunch of top ladies ready to go pro. The MLS College Draft is next week and expanded eligibility rules mean there’s probably even less of a chance than usual of any kiwis getting picked up. The NWSL College Draft is on January 12. Lists of eligible players will hopefully emerge closer to the time. Forget the drafts though, that’s just confirmation on which players aren’t going back for post-grad or anything. Daisy Cleverley and Jacqui Hand went undrafted but picked up great gigs in Europe while Hannah Blake went undrafted and is now going well in the A-League. That’s the pathway to watch for the likes of Gabi Rennie, Ava Collins, Maggie Jenkins, and we’ll see who else.
Callan Elliot – Legit, like, what is this bloke even up to these days? Had a breakthrough season with the Nix then left after some bad negotiations now has been out of a club for six months. Was some interest chatted up from Scotland and England, and he definitely spent some time in Scotland (though possibly for family reasons).
Marco Rojas – See above. The way he left Colo-Colo suggested that he was happy to return to the A-League but that hasn’t eventuated yet and he’s ended up with a decent break from the game. Not yet to the extent of Stefan Marinovic who at this stage I’m considering retired until I hear otherwise, but yeah not much news. I don’t normally say this, as I prefer them to expand the professional player pool rather than shrinking it by bringing dudes back from overseas, but Rojas at the Welly Nix would go alright about now.
Nik Tzanev – Hardly getting a look in for AFC Wimbledon these days and he’s better than that. Was rumoured to Blackburn in the offseason, which never happened but gives a bit of air to the idea of a transfer. Not really expecting something mid-season but we shall see. Zac Jones is another, he’s due a step up from his Welsh club though that feels like more of an end-of-season thing than a January one.
Corban Piper – Combative young midfielder who just had a solid season in the second tier of Ireland with Wexford, though they missed out on promotion and it’s unclear if he’ll return or seek something else out. Piper is ex-Birkenhead... and one of his former teammates, Curtis Hughes, is apparently on trial with Kilmarnock in Scotland at the moment. It’s trial season as well as transfer season. Christchurch United goalie Scott Morris was over at Stoke City recently. Guys like Adam Supyk and Oli Colloty had multiple trials during this past year, while Jesse Randall was similar before signing with Charleston Battery in the USA where he’s since been released from (along with Deklan Wynne) having hardly gotten a look in.
I’m working on an article looking back at the U17 NZ Women’s team that finished third at the 2018 World Cup, on the five-year anniversary, and I don’t know when that’ll get done. Hopefully next week, maybe the week after. Got to finish off my National League Teams of the Season first – the women’s one is almost done, might even emerge in the next couple of days. So in the meantime here’s some research you might be interested in...
Age-Grade World Cup Knockout Games Involving NZ
2009 Men’s U17 World Cup | Nigeria 5-0 New Zealand
2011 Men’s U17 World Cup | Japan 6-0 New Zealand
2014 Women’s U20 World Cup | Nigeria 4-1 New Zealand
2015 Men’s U20 World Cup | Portugal 2-1 New Zealand
2015 Men’s U17 World Cup | Brazil 1-0 New Zealand
2017 Men’s U20 World Cup | USA 6-0 New Zealand
2018 Women’s U17 World Cup | Japan 1-1 New Zealand (NZ win 4-3 on pens)
2018 Women’s U17 World Cup | Spain 2-0 New Zealand
2018 Women’s U17 World Cup | Canada 1-2 New Zealand
2019 Men’s U20 World Cup | Colombia 1-1 New Zealand (Colombia win 5-4 on pens)
2021 Men’s U23 Olympics | Japan 0-0 New Zealand (Japan win 4-2 on pens)
2023 Men’s U20 World Cup | USA 4-0 New Zealand
The games are getting more common. The results... not really. The only knockout wins we’ve ever managed were achieved by that 2018 WU17s side, with one via penalties and the other was the third-placed playoff. Take a look at that 2018 U17s squad and it’s a pretty wild ‘where are they now’ situation...
We’ve got six players there who are fully capped by the Football Ferns, with at least a couple more who are well on track to join them. Roughly eight of them have played professionally, with a few others on that are travelling down the American pathways and could yet pop up in due course. Most of those pros went through the Wellington Phoenix. There are also two players here who switched allegiances to other nations and a couple others who don’t appear to be playing anywhere at all. Four of them played National League this year (although two were for the Phoenix Reserves). But you’ll have to wait for the article for specifics.
Yo check it out, James McGarry played Europa Conference League this morning...
McGarry’s initial arrival in Aberdeen was delayed by the birth of his first child, then it was straight into the action with the season already underway. He did feature as they lost their Europa League qualifier, hence the drop into ECL, but after being an unused sub in their first match he was injured for the next four. Two weeks ago he made the bench for their trip to HJK in Finland but he was probably happen he got to keep the jacket on for that one since it was so cold and snowy that they had to stop the game with twenty to go and send on a trio of snow-plow tractors to clear the surface.
But at the sixth and final time of asking, McGarry was picked to start at home against Eintracht Frankfurt and he put in a 78 minute defensive shift as The Dons sprung a bit of an upset. Despite only having 22% of possession and sitting very deep in a 5-4-1 formation, they were able to limit Frankfurt to nothing much and then scored from their only two shots on target, both direct counter-attacking moves, and that was enough for a 2-0 victory. Their only win of this group stage (they were already eliminated beforehand).
It had as much to do with the shape and tactics as anything but McGarry wasn’t so flash with the ball at his feet. Sprayed a few passes, often short of options to begin with, and couldn’t connect with either of his two crosses. Though he did burst up that wing a few times when he was able to get that far forward. And defensively he was rock solid. Jumped into several tackles, kept his position fantastically, pretty much just worked hard for the lads. Attaboy.
James McGarry: “It's a funny game. It was a big game for us and we came here with lots of fresh legs in the team. We were full of confidence as we know we have a great squad and anyone who comes in and do the job. Frankfurt are a top team so we will take a lot of confidence from that. We went out there, worked hard, and sometimes you get rewarded for doing that with two nice goals. I'm not sure it was perfect gameplan as we probably wanted to be on the ball a bit more. But it can be hard when you are defending for large parts of the game but we knew about their quality and defended really well. The boys dug deep as it was tough out there. We are strong on the counter attack and got rewarded there a couple of times. I am proud of the lads and we will take big confidence going into Sunday.”
Now, he did limp off with a dozen to play... though he revealed afterwards that it was only precautionary. Which is a relief because Aberdeen are actually playing Rangers in the Scottish League Cup final this weekend and McGarry is in contention to at least get some minutes, if not start, with his main left-back rival out injured.
No matter how that goes, McGarry will always hold the honour of being the first New Zealander to play in the Conference League. That’s because the third-tier UEFA club competition has only been around for a couple of years (by the way they’ve begun talking about finally getting a second-tier women’s competition, which is great for kiwi players since we haven’t had any Champions League qualifiers since they shrunk things into the 16-team group stage format). But despite its freshness, it was getting tetchy watching fellas continually not quite qualify. Ryan De Vries, Max Mata, Nando Pijnaker, Joe Bell, Logan Rogerson, Zac Jones, and Ollie Whyte all played in the qualifying stages across the past three years and none made it this far. It took James McGarry falling backwards from Europa quals to get it done.
Marko Stamenic’s Red Star Belgrade came last in their Champions League group so they’re also out of continental competition for the season. Unless there are transfers in January, that’s it for the kiwi presence in these competitions... with the exception of the Women’s Champions League. Doubtful that Erin Nayler will play but she was on the extended bench for Bayern Munich again in their 1-1 draw with Ajax. That sends them top of their group at the halfway stage, thanks to PSG beating Roma in the other Group C match.
Enjoy your weekend, here’s a song about basketball…