Tangled Branches

Blackcaps at T20 World Cup, Wellington Phoenix ALW goals, All Whites preparation, Ford Trophy & HBJ Shield, NBL, Kiwi-NRL, and more

Feb 12, 2026

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Scotty’s Word

Blackcaps have two wins to start the T20 World Cup. Among many funky pockets for Blackcaps there is Tim Seifert who is Aotearoa’s best T20I batter over the last two years and here’s how that looks using three different checkpoints...

2024 onwards: 953 runs @ 41.4avg/157.5sr - 1st for NZ runs
2025 onwards: 816 runs @ 51avg/167.5sr - 1st
October 1st onwards: 371 runs @ 46.3avg/164.8sr - 1st

Seifert has plenty of mana as well despite the (unnecessary) anxiety about T20 jobs around the world because he has been one of the most active Blackcaps in T20Is during this period. 30 games since the start of 2024 makes him one of seven Blackcaps who have played 30+ games in that period and his 22 games since the start of 2025 is fourth highest for kiwis. Seifert loves playing for Aotearoa as do all Blackcaps.

There is also a clear trend of Blackcaps getting better and this is something that happens to players throughout the entire Blackcaps pipeline, especially mature players, so don’t go shuffling older dudes out of the mix just because of their age. Seifert and Allen offer easy examples in T20I batting...

Tim Seifert

Before 2024: 26.22avg/137sr
Since start of 2024: 51avg/167sr

Finn Allen

Before 2024: 22.28avg/155sr
Since start of 2024: 37.22avg/179sr

Matt Henry is tied with Lockie Ferguson on 3 wickets at the T20WC but he’s more economical. While Henry has an excellent T20I record of 22.8avg/8.5rpo, it stems from improvements made in the T20 format since returning to the team in 2023 after six years out of the mix.

Before 2023: 27.2avg/8.6rpo
Since start of 2023: 22avg/8.4rpo

Jacob Duffy made his T20I debut in 2020 and even he has improved in the international arena...

Before 2024: 22.3avg/7.4rpo
Since start of 2024: 17.9avg/7.9rpo

And of course the same goes for skipper Santner’s batting as he’s had a massive leap over the past year..

Before 2025: 16.53avg/120sr
Since start of 2025: 43.16avg/177sr

Michael Bracewell dropped out of the T20WC squad due to injury with a like-for-like player in Cole McConchie joining the wider squad. The addition of McConchie is aligned with everything about this squad as selections skew towards reliable, mature players who can adapt to conditions and scenarios.

McConchie has already played six ODIs and 12 T20Is for Aotearoa, while being a hearty leader for Canterbury. He is unlikely to play and his mana means McConchie will be doing all the team-first things required in a tournament like this.

Another option could have been Dean Foxcroft (already played for Blackcaps) who is an excellent spinning all-rounder and in our podcast this week I rambled about how Blackcaps and NZ Warriors have depth in specific roles. There are a bunch of spinners doing well in domestic cricket and they can all bat, but this role is batters who can bowl spin and there are four in the T20WC mix, five with Foxcroft.

Chill on the dramas about losing Bracewell as well. His spin has been solid but his batting is much closer to Jimmy Neesham’s mahi than Santner’s and Bracewell’s 19.5avg/140sr since the start of 2025 drops to 8.6avg/104sr since October 1st. I didn’t have Bracewell in my 1st 11 and so I don’t view his absence as a major blow to the campaign for Blackcaps.

2025/26 HBJ Shield: Round Four Basics

2025/26 Ford Trophy: Round Eight Basics

Tom Blundell’s recent form: 63, 25, 73, 47, 41, 45, 51, 41, 49*

Blundell also dismissed Bevon Jacobs in Wellington’s win over Auckland this week in Ford Trophy. Yes the lbw probably wasn’t out but I had fun watching Blundell take a wicket and sometimes having fun is better than complaining. Here’s his white ball mahi this season...

Ford Trophy: 318 runs @ 53avg/95sr
Super Smash: 364 runs @ 40.4avg/155sr

The best batter in HBJ Shield is 19-year-old Emma McLeod. She is the only batter with 400+ runs, she is the only batter averaging 60+, she is one of four batters with a century and one of two batters with four 50+ scores. McLeod is averaging 33.21 in List-A batting and there are two branches of improvement that are tangled together...

McLeod’s HBJ Shield strike-rate has increased from last season.

2024/25: 300 runs @ 42.85avg/72.63sr
2025/26: 465 runs @ 66.42avg/82.44sr

McLeod also had her best Super Smash season this summer. She was a 1st 11 player in HBJ Shield but wasn’t always in CD’s Super Smash teams and she commanded selection this summer, going from three games in two seasons to nine games this season (158 runs @ 26.3avg/107.48sr) with her first 50+ score in T20 batting.

For paid subscribers and Patreon whanau

More Blackcaps stats
19-year-olds in Ford Trophy (Xavier Bell and Snehith Reddy)
Ford Trophy spinners
Oscar Jackson’s early domestic mahi
The best women’s bowlers this summer
Best youngsters in HBJ Shield
More NZ Warriors squad stuff
Kiwi-NRL juniors in NRL Preseason
U19 deep cuts in Queensland and NSW

NZ Warriors play Sea Eagles on Saturday and the halves is a funky zone. Tanah Boyd will be the dominant play-maker at halfback with Luke Hanson starting alongside him. This could mean that Hanson does no kicking but I want to see Hanson share some kicking duties with Boyd because this is the one thing he hasn’t quite shown in the NZW system yet.

I suspect this is part of Hanson’s development journey and he’s impressed in other aspects of footy, so I’ll be watching him closely. The other halves selected are Aussie Jack Thompson and Harry Inch, who will probably start the season as the halves combo in U21s. Thompson is more of halfback just like Jett Cleary and he’s steadily shown a dynamic running game to go with his other duties, plus he is only 19-years-old so the fact that he is in this squad is kinda crazy.

As for Inch, we need to see him play rugby league and he may not even get game time in the halves. He seems suited to the typical number six role, but he may also emerge as a fullback. Either way, Inch will have an opportunity to showcase his talent and I’ll be keeping close tabs on any sighting of the Thompson/Inch combo.

Jackson Stewart was the most surprising Kiwi-NRL selection in NRL preseason squads as an outside back. The Hornby junior from Christchurch has had quick rise through NRL pipelines, starting with the 2024 U17 Harold Matthews Cup championships with NZ Warriors. Last year he moved to Roosters and won the U19 SG Ball Cup championship, then stepped up to play U21s for Roosters. Two years after winning the U17 championship he is in the Roosters preseason squad and he’s already played fullback and centre in the Roosters system so I’m curious what role he plays in their wider NRL mixer.

Musical jam...

Nick’s Notebook

Let’s begin in the A-League Women’s…

Wellington Phoenix Women Expected Goals

2025-26: 25 goals from 19.4 xG (+5.6)
2024-25: 23 goals from 38.6 xG (-15.6)
2023-24: 34 goals from 34.3 xG (-0.3)
2022-23: 19 goals from 17.8 xG (+1.2)
2021-22: 12 goals from 10.9 xG (+1.1)

xG is a shooting stat so these goal counts don’t include own goals (of which there’s been at least one in their favour in every season). These stats can be tricky to procure as well so I’ve had to piece things together from a couple of sources. Best not to take it too specifically, particularly last season’s figures which seem too extreme to be exact... but the overall idea remains that this was a very bad finishing team that has become a very good one this season. Massive turnaround (as massive as the inverse of Auckland FC going from an utterly dominant team late in halves to being outscored in those spots from season to season). Here’s another way to look at the same concept...

Shots On Target Per Game

2025-26: 5.2 shots on target (15.3% conversion rate)
2024-25: 5.7 (6.9%)
2023-24: 6.2 (12.0%)
2022-23: 3.9 (9.8%)
2021-22: 2.9 (11.4%)

First couple of seasons, they weren’t creating enough chances. Next couple of seasons, they were creating a decent amount but especially in 24-25 they weren’t putting them away (and the xG suggests they were quality chances too). This year they’ve dropped their shots on target quantity slightly but are light years beyond in terms of putting those shots on target past the keeper. The two major players to thank for that? Pia Vlok and Brooke Nunn who have been banging in goals from distance and from tough angles to exceed their expected goals by huge margins.

Compare that to someone like Makala Woods who I spoke about on the podcast this week for being pretty inefficient in the attacking third. Wasted a lot of good opportunities in the win against Perth and that was through poor touches and passing decisions as well as her shooting. But like I said there... it doesn’t really matter.

Woods (like Samba before her) is awarded the room to be messy because she’s a volume striker who, via sheer force and athleticism and energy, is going to put herself in five or six of those situations per game and, as we saw against Perth, she only really needs to score from one to get the job done. She’s got quality finishers around her to carry the slack... plus Woods doesn’t get in the way of anyone else with what she’s doing. She’s pressing high and running in behind. These are moments designed or orchestrated for/by her alone. I do wonder if the goals might dry up once she comes out of this hot streak, considering she’s only put 4/12 shots on target and two of her goals were miss-hits. But you can’t fault the production through her first five games...

vs Melbourne City (L 1-2): Goal
vs Canberra (W 2-0): Assist
vs Adelaide (W 3-1): Goal & Assist
vs Newcastle (W 5-1): Three Assists
vs Perth (W 1-0): Goal

You know what also helps? The Wellington Phoenix have yet to concede a goal while Makala Woods has been on the pitch. 375 minutes and counting. They were 2-0 down when she was subbed on against City. The Adelaide and Newcastle goals were late consolations after she’d been replaced. Can’t give her all the credit for that, being a striker and all, although she needs surely some of it since her hustle and workrate up top is extremely disruptive to teams in those early phases of possession.

Also... they’ve scored 11 goals during those 375 minutes (aka 2.6 goals per 90 mins) which is a remarkable rate even aside from the perpetual clean sheet. For a mid-season signing to have such an instant impact like this, for her strengths to stand out so much and her weaknesses to be absorbed by the team around her, is crazy stuff.

The All Whites have booked in a game against England, to be played in Florida nine days prior to their opening World Cup match. Proper game, not a closed-door match or anything like that... but still a warm-up game just in case you’ve seen that word “Blockbuster” being used again. Probably one of the lowest usage to actual meaning words that there is these days (right up there with “game-changer”). There’s also expected to be another game before that, potentially against Haiti though nothing’s been confirmed yet. This will follow the games in Auckland against Finland and Chile in the March window... in the only remaining FIFA window before the squad has to be selected. It’s possible they’ll also have some unofficial hit-outs around those TBD & England games but those would only be training exercises.

All Whites Fixtures in 2026 (NZT)

Finland (H) on 27 March
Chile (H) on 30 March
(Maybe another game in early June)
England (N) on 7 June
Iran (N) on 16 June
Egypt (N) on 22 June
Belgium (N) on 27 June

This England game fits in as part of the wider preparation, though it’ll no doubt be treated as something more by the many folks on the NZ footy scene who seem to believe that England is the heart of the world when it comes to football, and that kiwi players should rather play for middling Championship clubs than for European qualifiers or even title winners on the continent. The All Whites were supposed to play England at Wembley back in 2020, in what would have been much more of a glamour friendly, but that got cancelled due to covid. The only other times we’ve played them were a pair of losses in Aotearoa back in 1991 to highlight the NZF centenary.

Ah, but the Football Ferns played England in a similar circumstance to this back in 2019. It was hosted in Brighton and was England’s last game before the World Cup in France. Sarah Gregorius scored the only goal as the Fernies won 1-0. Of course, NZ went on to lose all three games at the World Cup whereas England made it to the semi-finals before losing to USA.