Tangible Evidence
Blackcaps in Champions Trophy, Warriors season opener, Wellington Phoenix/Auckland FC, Ford Trophy & HBJ Shield Finals, All Whites notes, NBL stuff & more
Scotty’s Word
Blackcaps went down to India overnight, putting them in a Champions Trophy semi-final vs South Africa on Wednesday. My benchmark for Blackcaps in ICC tournaments is top-four and after slipping up at the T20 World Cup last year, a fresh ODI group has put Aotearoa back in the semi-finals.
I keep my expectations low when playing India and other semi-finalists. Blackcaps need to be exceptional to win these big games and a dose of realism reminds me that Aotearoa is a wee nation, the smallest cricket nation competing at the highest levels. While I'm always hopeful of glory, my main concern is Blackcaps cracking semi-finals and maintaining their top-four standing in the world.
Here are key details from the loss vs India…
India: 249/9
Matt Henry: 5w @ 5.2rpo
Kyle Jamieson: 1w @ 3.8rpo
Will O'Rourke: 1w @ 5.2rpo
Mitchell Santner: 1w @ 4.1rpo
Michael Bracewell: 9ov @ 6.2rpo
Rachin Ravindra: 1w @ 5.1rpo
NZ: 205 in 45.3ov
Kane Williamson: 81 runs @ 67sr
Mitchell Santner: 28 runs @ 90sr
Will Young: 22 runs @ 63sr
All the stats you can handle starting with Champions Trophy mahi…
Batting
Tom Latham: 187 runs @ 93avg/93sr
Will Young: 129 runs @ 43avg/84sr
Rachin Ravindra: 118 runs @ 59avg/101sr
Glenn Phillips: 94 runs @ 47avg/125sr
Kane Williamson: 87 runs @ 29avg/69sr
Devon Conway: 40 runs @ 20avg/64sr
Mitchell Santner: 28 runs @ 28avg/90sr
Daryl Mitchell: 27 runs @ 13avg/46sr
Bowling
Matt Henry: 8w @ 15avg/5rpo
Will O'Rourke: 6w @ 23avg/5rpo
Michael Bracewell: 5w @ 24avg/4.1rpo
Mitchell Santner: 4w @ 37avg/5rpo
Kyle Jamieson: 2w @ 39avg/4.6rpo
Nathan Smith: 1w @ 20avg/10rpo
Rachin Ravindra: 1w @ 31avg/5.1rpo
Lowest ODI bowling averages for 20+ wickets since start of 2024
Shakeel Ahmed: 30w @ 9.4avg
AM Ghazanfar: 21w @ 13.5avg
Matt Henry: 22w @ 14.9avg
Wanindu Hasaranga: 32w @ 17.6avg
Aryan Dutt: 21w @ 18.7avg
Highest ODI batting averages for 300+ runs since start of 2024
Sherfane Rutherford: 425 runs @ 106.2avg
Heinrich Klaasen: 415 runs @ 83avg
Saim Ayub: 515 runs @ 64.3avg
Kane Williamson: 312 runs @ 62.4avg
Keacy Carty: 560 runs @ 62.2avg
Kane Williamson career check in
Test: 54.8avg
ODI: 49.11avg
T20I: 33.44avg
FC: 51.08avg
LA: 47.62avg
T20: 31.93avg
Matt Henry career check in
Test: 29.84avg
ODI: 24.85avg
T20I: 23.66avg
FC: 23.07avg
LA: 26avg
T20: 23.7avg
Beyond the (pay)wall I have a few more Blackcaps notes and more information about youngsters in HBJ Shield and Ford Trophy. I covered Otago's win over Auckland in the HBJ Shield final here and followed it up this morning with a break down of Canterbury's Ford Trophy win over Auckland.
My favourite nugget is how Otago won the HBJ Shield final without Suzie Bates, Hayley Jensen and Bella James. Three players who all played roles in a dominant season and they’d make all the domestic teams better.
Canterbury won without Chad Bowes and Henry Shipley, as well as Kyle Jamieson who was a late call up to the Blackcaps. Auckland didn't have Ben Lister which was a notable loss and also Will O'Donnell and Jimmy Neesham suffered an injury during the final. Plus Henry Nicholls returned to Canterbury's 1st 11 after injury, so it balances out.
Auckland lost both finals, so here are some details from their one-day campaigns...
Jimmy Neesham: 295 runs @ 42avg/129sr | 16w @ 16.8avg/4.8rpo
Bevon Jacobs six-hitting this summer
Plunket Shield: 13 - 2nd
Ford Trophy: 16 - 4th
Super Smash: 15 - 3rd
Adithya Ahsok: 10w @ 28.5avg/4.9rpo. Ashok career mahi…
FC: 35.6avg/3.3rpo
LA: 34.8avg/5.4rpo
T20: 23.4avg/7.5rpo
Simon Keene: 116 runs @ 29avg/99sr | 7w @ 21.4avg/5.4rpo
Lauren Down replaces Bella James in the White Ferns ODI squad after 370 runs @ 37avg/85sr in HBJ Shield. Jensen missed the HBJ Shield final and has just been replaced by Fran Jonas for the ODIs as well. All these changes have wrecked my White Ferns vs Sri Lanka squad break down.
Fran Jonas LA seasons
2019/20: 21.1avg/3.8rpo
2020/21: 24avg/4.1rpo
2021/22: 38.2avg/4.7rpo
2022/23: 29.6avg/4rpo
2023/24: 28avg/3.9rpo
2024/25: 41.1avg/4.7rpo
Bree Illing finishes with 21w @ 21.09avg/4.5rpo in HBJ Shield
Polly Inglis vs Izzy Gaze in List-A batting…
2024/45
Inglis: 340 runs @ 42.5avg/97sr, 2 x 50
Gaze: 282 runs @ 28.2avg/86sr, 3 x 50
Career
Inglis: 105 innings, 22.49avg/72.6sr, 11 x 50
Gaze: 45 innings, 17.7avg/69.7sr, 3 x 50
White Ferns start their ODI series vs Sri Lanka on Tuesday in Napier. Plunket Shield returns on Wednesday. Northern Districts vs Canterbury in Hamilton. Auckland vs Central Districts in Auckland. Wellington vs Otago in Wellington.
Beyond the wall (maybe - the whare) I have added more NZ Warriors notes from their 30-8 loss vs Canberra Raiders. I've also got more Kiwi-NRL notes about Matthew Timoko and Isaiah Papali’i. The passage below sums up my Warriors vibe right now and unfortunately for both teams, watching Warriors and Wellington Phoenix isn't fun.
NZ Warriors lost by 22 points vs Raiders with a better completion rate, quicker average play the ball speed, roughly 50 more touches and passes, less penalties conceded.
Warriors had half the offloads of Raiders and made the same number of errors. Missed twice as many tackles with similar tackles made.
Warriors had slightly more runs but less post-contact metres, one-third of Raiders linebreaks, and half their tackle breaks.
Most notably - NZ Warriors are boring to watch. They were boring last year with Harris, SJ, AFB, Montoya and are still boring in their one game this year.
Me: NZ Warriors will be faster in 2025
Andrew Webster: Jackson Ford is playing 51mins as a starting middle forward
Ford played 12 games at edge forward to start last season - 80mins in most games. Then three games as starting prop with 55+ mins in all three. Then bench for four games. Two less than 40mins, 66+ mins in the other two
Ford averaged 72mins in 2023, 69.2mins in 2024. 51mins to start 2025 - at least the minutes are decreasing. Would prefer Erin Clark starting with far more Demitric Vaimauga and Leka Halasima
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
What a strange week of A-League football that was... none of the New Zealand teams won. The Wellington Phoenix lads put in a decent shift against Melbourne City on Friday night but went down 1-0 all the same. It’s a baffling fact of their season that they’ve only won once in New Zealand this season. They’ve won in Perth. They’ve won in Gosford. They’ve won in Sydney during Unite Round in what was technically (but not really) a home game. But in Aotearoa they’ve so far delivered:
D 1-1 with Western United
L 0-2 vs Auckland FC
L 1-2 vs Auckland FC (Auckland)
L 1-2 vs Macarthur
W 2-1 vs Newcastle Jets
L 1-2 vs Adelaide Utd
D 0-0 vs Sydney FC
D 0-0 vs Central Coast Mariners (Christchurch)
D 1-1 vs Brisbane Roar
L 1-6 vs Auckland FC (Auckland)
L 0-1 vs Melbourne City
That’s... not going to get you into the finals, sorry folks. They do still have eight games remaining but it’s probably going to have to be about building for next year and beyond because they’re a long way from that top six now and, frankly, they just aren’t playing well enough to believe they can make that happen.
There is hope in the arrival of Chico Geraldes, though no time at all to get him embedded with his teammates. There is hope also in the return to semi-fitness of Marco Rojas. But mostly it feels like this was one hurdle too many after a bunch of recent seasons in which this squad has had to rebuild itself year after year. It was a point I highlighted after the third derby defeat: the Nix hardly have anyone in that 23-29 age range in the theoretical primes of their careers. Auckland FC have heaps of them. For the Phoenix, it’s mostly older guys and younger guys with not much in between.
I intend to write about this situation later in the week (I’m always wary of making promises like that in case circumstances don’t allow... we’ll see how it goes) and all you blessed subscribers can see a few more preliminary notes on that count after the jump in the form of the squad contract breakdown. There’s also a bit on how likely the Wellington Pheonix Wahine are to make the ALW finals after another defeat for them. Other than that, just wanna say that the Welly Nix lads have only scored twice or more in 4/18 games (and there’s only one instance of more... the 3-0 win against Central Coast). All four instances led to victories. When they do score, they win. But they usually don’t score.
Meanwhile, Auckland FC may have had a freaky 4-4 draw against Adelaide on Saturday arvo... but that does mean they’re on a seven-game unbeaten streak for the second time this season. The previous streak was to begin the season. They won six and drew one. This time they’ve won five and drawn two but with arguably a tougher set of games. But the major difference is a simple one...
AFC First Seven Games: 11 goals scored, 3 conceded
AFC Last Seven Games: 20 goals scored, 8 conceded
Four of those eight came in that one most recent game and remember they conceded four against Western United in the loss that ended the initial streak so don’t stress too much about any perceived defensive drop-off. They’re clearly still the best defence in the competition, regardless of a couple dodgy pens. Nah, the focus is on how this streak has seen them score almost double the goals of the last seven-game streak. They’ve genuinely become a really effective attacking team as the season’s gone on.
It’s a simple formula with lots of crosses, big men jumping for headers, and a determination to play right up to the whistle. On that note, Max Mata joining the starting eleven has probably had a lot to do with this evolution, given that he’s a target man in the air for those crosses. But we’re also seeing Neyder Moreno looking sharp with his quick movements. We’re seeing Guillermo May absolutely loving it as he drifts deep into pockets and rips shots from distance. We’re seeing Logan Rogerson as part of a three-way tie for top scorer at the club with Moreno and May (all on seven – Rogerson was eventually credited with a hat-trick in Derby 3, one of Moreno’s goals being attributed). I’d prefer if Liam Gillion was getting those Marley Francois minutes but so it goes.
Even the defenders are chipping in. Francis De Vries keeps giving them the deliveries. Hiroki Sakai’s forward support runs are amazing – check how he was initially trying to make an underlap for his goal on Saturday, only for the ball to go somewhere else so he stayed with the play and got onto the end of Callan Elliot’s cross instead. That guy is always a step ahead. The midfield supports the attack really nicely. They’ve got central defenders who are threats on set pieces. It’s all working so smoothly... apart from a small handful of preventable moments against Adelaide that cost them a couple points. Moments that we can safely say are uncharacteristic of this team.
Both NBL semi-finals are heading for decisive game threes following wins for Perth and South East Melbourne. Tai Webster did some lovely stuff scoring 13 points for Perth, though Hyrum Harris didn’t play at all. Here are how the kiwi fellows are tracking...
Shea Ili (Melbourne) – 31 mins in G1, 25 mins in G2
Rob Loe (Melbourne) – 20 mins in G1, 16 mins in G2
Flynn Cameron (Melbourne) – 8 mins in G1, 6 mins in G2
Tai Webster (Perth) – 11 mins in G1, 21 mins in G2
Hyrum Harris (Perth) – 39 seconds in G1, DNP in G2
Dontae Russo-Nance (Perth) – DNP in G1, DNP in G2
Tom Vodanovich (SEM) – DNP in G1, DNP in G2
The New Zealand NBL tips off in less than two weeks and in a few days they’re having a preseason blitz thingamajig. Only you know how they’re going to add a random team from overseas, the Indian Panthers, to the competition this year? Yeah so the Panthers play their first game on March 12 and there’s hardly any tangible evidence that they even exist outside of the NBL’s in-house media.
The Panthers social accounts only have a handful of followers. They’ve not yet announced a coach or any players. And what’s more, they’ve pulled out of the Blitz because of “visa issues”. There was a note that most of their players and staff were involved in the InBL Pro season back in Delhi so at least that suggests that they do have players and staff. That’s a good start. But it’s not much more than that. S’pose we can at least give them credit for trying. If it works, they open up a whole new financial audience. If it fails then we’re back where we were and this whole experiment will have been so strange that nobody’ll think twice about it.
Musical Jam...
