Sufficient Valuation
Sufficient Valuation
Ben Waine's Plymouth move, Blackcaps vs Pakistan, Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker returns, Tai Webster signs with Perth, Super Smash notes & more
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2022 Kiwi-NRL Team Power Rankings (Rugby League)
How The Aotearoa Warriors Spine May Operate In 2023 (Rugby League)
2022 Women’s National League – Team of the Season (Football)
2022/23 Super Smash: Update #3 (Cricket)
2022/23 Women's Super Smash: Update #3 (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
Blackcaps start their second Test against Pakistan tonight after a solid draw in the first Test. This does little to change any World Test Championship stuff as Pakistan is 7th and Aotearoa is 8th, both well behind the teams competing for a spot in the final.
While I enjoy Will Young's mahi, I also liked the decision to open with Tom Latham and Devon Conway. Latham and Conway are two of Aotearoa's best batters and also love a sweep shot, which is a useful tool to have in Pakistan. This will be an interesting selection decision when the kiwis return to Aotearoa for Tests later this summer.
Blackcaps batters have good records in this WTC cycle. Even though Young is one of two notable Blackcaps batters averaging below 30, he has five 50+ scores. Here are the Blackcaps batting stats in this WTC cycle...
Daryl Mitchell: 13inns, 751 runs @ 62.58avg, 3 x 100, 4 x 50
Tom Latham: 18inns, 715 runs @ 42.05avg, 2 x 100, 3 x 50
Tom Blundell: 17inns, 667 runs @ 44.46avg, 1 x 100, 5 x 50
Devon Conway: 14inns, 649 runs @ 49.92avg, 2 x 100, 3 x 50
Will Young: 16inns, 434 runs @ 27.12avg, 5 x 50
Henry Nicholls: 15inns, 361 runs @ 24.06avg, 1 x 100, 1 x 50
Kane Williamson: 7inns, 338 runs @ 56.33avg, 1 x 100
Squeezing Nicholls into the batting line up, along with Michael Bracewell could be a sneaky factor in Blackcaps cricket. Nicholls has been the least productive batter in this group and had three consecutive 50+ scores in Plunket Shield prior to this tour, without a dominant big donnie knock. This is compounded by having Bracewell in the all-rounder slot.
In his last 10 games scattered across various formats, Bracewell has three scores over 10. Bracewell has 9w @ 48.77avg/4.54rpo and scored 104 runs @ 17.33avg. Bracewell has a First-Class career record of 32.71avg batting and 47.83avg bowling.
Ponder Mitchell Santner the Test cricketer. Santner has basically the same FC record as Bracewell (29.3avg batting, 47.22avg bowling) and Bracewell essentially replaced Santner, with Rachin Ravindra given an opportunity in-between.
Nicholls and Bracewell aren't at their best nor have they been commanding consistent selection via performances. Ajaz Patel is someone to watch out for here as well, considering he has taken 2 wickets since his monster performance against India in Mumbai. Here are Patel's performances around that 14w haul against India...
vs India: 29.1ov, 2w @ 3.08rpo | 17ov, 1w @ 3.52rpo
vs India: 47.5ov, 10w @ 2.48rpo | 26ov, 4w @ 4.07rpo
vs England: 2 overs @ 11rpo
vs Pakistan: 36ov, 2w @ 3.11rpo | 24ov @ 3.7rpo
One of those innings is different to the others and not for wickets. Patel operated above 3rpo in all but one of those innings and has conceded 3.28rpo in this WTC cycle. Package that with Bracewell's 4.54rpo which is the most expensive of all Blackcaps bowlers in this cycle and only bowler over 4rpo. This clutters the Blackcaps spin situation as Patel has struggled to impact games outside of his Mumbai magic, while Bracewell isn't offering much as an all-rounder.
Both teams scored above 3rpo in their first innings, then Pakistan dropped down to 2.99rpo in their second effort. Bracewell and Patel were the only kiwi bowlers who conceded over 3rpo in that innings, with Patel being the most expensive. How these two perform in the second Test will be a key factor for Blackcaps.
Super Smash notes...
Ravindra took 2w @ 5.75rpo vs Canterbury and finished with 19* @ 118.75sr. As of Monday morning Ravindra is 7th for runs (139.72sr) and 4th for wickets, second best spinner behind Dean Foxcroft.
Josh Clarkson (214.86sr), Finn Allen (194.11sr) and Chad Bowes (165sr) are top-three for runs with bonkers strike-rates.
Amelia Kerr update: 111 runs @ 37avg/111sr, 3w @ 25.66avg/6.41rpo.
Sophie Devine didn't score runs vs Canterbury but did take 2w @ 6rpo. Devine has a T20 bowling record of 19.51avg/6.58rpo.
Kate Anderson grabbed her first 50+ score of the summer with 83* @ 133.87sr. Anderson finished 2nd for HBJ Shield runs last season (306 runs @ 51avg/108.51sr) and she is chasing her fifth season of HBJ Shield averaging 35+. That's evident in Anderson's List-A average of 30.38 which drops down to 15.22 in T20 cricket.
Lea Tahuhu's recent mahi...
HBJ Shield: 10w @ 9.6avg/3.25rpo
T20Is vs Bangladesh: 8w @ 5.25avg/3.5rpo
Super Smash: 5w @ 18avg/5.62rpo
Under 18 Dean Bell Cup squads were recently announced and this sparks up an intriguing phase for NZ Warriors juniors. Auckland Rugby League rolls out the Under 16 Shaun Johnson Shield and U18 DBC competitions early in February with four teams in each competition.
These competitions will probably serve as background to SG Ball as they will be played around the same time. This is useful considering that Auckland club footy falls in the usual winter window and players may flow between DBC and SG Ball.
Adjusting to this February-March window will also be useful as the Harold Matthews Cup is a NSW Under 17 competition that runs alongside SG Ball. Warriors have stated their desire to enter a Harold Matthews Cup team and could soon have local competitions aligned with the NSW junior competitions.
Here are players named in the SG Ball squad who are also named in U18 DBC squads...
Auckland Red: Sio Kali
Auckland White: Dennis Sofara, Jacob David Auloa, Raphael Sio
Auckland Blue: Alvin Chong-Nee, Kayliss-Jesse Fatialofa
Auckland Black: Jeriko Filipi-Talisau, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Selu Halasima
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
It’s a New Year... and it’s a new European football transfer window. Flying Kiwis Transfer Season is back in business and already we’ve had an absolute banger with Ben Waine signing for English League One leaders Plymouth Argyle.
More shall be written about this in the coming days. In the meantime, know that it’s a former club of two blokes that Waine’s had a lot to do with over the past year: Rory Fallon and Scott Wootton. Also know that Plymouth Argyle tried to sign the Waine Train back before the season began but were knocked back by the Wellington Phoenix because, by their accounts, the fee that was offered wasn’t sufficient given their own valuation.
Since initially failing to complete the transfer, Plymouth Argyle have proceeded to play some very successful footy and they currently lead League One by a solid margin - they are seven points clear although Ipswich and Sheffield United each have a game in hand at the time of writing; there’s then a further nine point drop to fourth place (again there are games in hand at play).
The Argyle are in an excellent position to push for promotion, making them a much more enticing destination compared to the start of the season. Plus they’ve shown persistence in coming back with an improved offer to get their bloke months later. Shows they really want him. That was a factor at stake when Viking FK got Joe Bell to pick them instead of the MLS Draft and it’s surely the same here. Happy days.
Ben Waine is good enough to hang around at this level and playing for a winning team will hopefully give him some leeway as he settles in. Maybe a steady flow of late game cameos off the bench with 2-0 leads in the bag, that sorta thing. He’s versatile enough to get in where he fits in and his size and deceptive strength should come in handy in the scrappy lower leagues of England.
Ideally they get promoted and he can restore an Aotearoa presence in the Champo (been a long time since the days of Tommy Smith and Chris Wood locking it down every week), for now he’ll be playing at the same level as Clayton Lewis did with Scunthorpe albeit for a better team and, crucially, you’d hope a better fit too. If you’re worried about him ending up at a lower tier than he could have then know that the most important thing by far in these scenarios is finding the right spot with opportunities to play and develop. The right spot is only ever a coaching change away from being the wrong spot but again that’s why it’s crucial he’s joined a winning team.
As for the one he’s left behind, I doubt that the Welly Nix bother to sign a local striker replacement. If they want to then there are a few decent options in the National League Team of the Season article we published over the weekend. But more likely Ufuk Talay gives Oskar van Hattum an increased role. Maybe Noah Karunaratne as well. Both were on the bench in this afternoon’s defeat to Melbourne City – with OVH getting a few minutes late on as the Nix chased an elusive equaliser.
Elsewhere in the Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker... there are a few notable free agents to keep an eye out for as well as potential transfers that could follow. Even got a couple very tasty rumours to dish up.
Erin Nayler is right up there in the priority list having finished with Swedish club Umeå a couple months ago. The ship has probably sailed on her chances of starting at the World Cup thanks to Vic Esson’s immaculate Footy Ferns form though Nayler still should make the squad regardless. A decent few months at a high level would ask the question though.
Also Nikko Boxall is without a club having left San Diego Loyal after struggling for game time (weird because it felt like he was dropping down a level to the USL after his time in Scandinavia, although sometimes it’s simply a bad fit with a certain coach/club. At least he was being kept out of the team in part by a fellow kiwi in Kyle Adams).
Should mention that San Diego Loyal have lived up to their nickname and replaced Boxall with a second kiwi for 2023: Elliot Collier has joined them after winning the USL title with San Antonio last year. Didn’t play much other than as an attacking substitute option over the second half of the season, losing his spot while he was out injured. Makes sense that he’d seek a new home in that case – and his championship status certainly helps get his name out there. Moses Dyer is also making the switch to the USA after a couple years in Canada with Valour where he was converted into a striker and scored a bundle of goals. Dyer has joined FC Tulsa.
Might be too soon for Francis De Vries to find his next club as he recovers from a serious knee injury – was surprised that Varnamo released him given he’d been first choice left back when he went down but this game is ruthless like that. He’ll bounce back. Also as far as I know Winston Reid hasn’t actually retired from football yet, only from internationals... but that might just be so that he can sail off into the horizon without any fuss. He’s 34 years old and has been without a club for a year and a half, not to mention he struggles to play two games in a row. Probably leave that one be. If he does pick something up it’s likely to be in the Middle East. Maybe Cristiano Ronaldo will put in a good word for a fellow Premier League legend.
What else might go down? Well the WSL clubs all seem to be trying to retool so it’s not impossible that someone like Claudia Bunge gets scooped up midway through her A-League season. Bunge missed the latest Melbourne Victory game with a minor ankle injury.
And another one to check in with is Fabiano Parisi. Not a kiwi... but the Empoli left-back is having a monster season, including a call-up to the Italy squad recently, and there’s interest in him from Inter Milan amongst others. If he leaves Empoli then that clears the way for Liberato Cacace to become a regular starter for Serie A club. While we’re in Italy there has been chat about Matt Garbett being loaned out from Torino in order to gain some first team experience, probably in the third tier (Serie C). Novara and Pro Vercelli were mentioned by toro.it as potential options.
Last but not least, in fact this could be the most consequential of all of them, have a peek at this wee rumour surrounding Marko Stamenic at FC Copenhagen...
Maxbet Sport RS: “Marko Stamenić from Copenhagen is on the wish list of [Red Star Belgrade]. As revealed by MaxBet sport, an official offer was sent to the club from Denmark, which is financially acceptable, since the midfielder has a contract until June 2023. And not only that but the red and whites are heavily negotiating with the New Zealand national team player, who completely fits into the vision of coach Miloš Milojević.”
Stamenic fell back out of the Copenhagen rotation before into the winter break and there’ll soon be more competition for places as one or two of the injuries that initially paved his way into the team (including for three Champions League appearances) clear up. His contract expires at the end of this season so if FCK are hoping to move him for a fee then now is their last chance.
Based on that report it’s going to happen too. That particular source reckons he’s the first choice option for FK Crvena Zvezda (aka Red Star Belgrade in English terms) and that a bid has already been accepted.
We’re talking about a significant move here. Red Star currently lead the Serbian SuperLiga in their quest for a sixth consecutive title. It’s a club with enormous history, including winning the Champions League back in 1991. Unfortunately their European campaign is over for the season, same as Copenhagen’s, having been knocked out of UCL qualifiers by Maccabi Haifa (Israel) before finishing bottom of a Europa League group that featured Ferencvaros (Hungary), Monaco (France), and Trabzonspor (Turkey). Looks like they could use a new defensive midfielder, aye? Plus thanks to his Serbian father, Marko Stamenic would even qualify as a local player. Watch this space.
Funky news in the NBL where Tai Webster is about to join his brother at the Perth Wildcats. Apparently it’s a move that’d been discussed behind the scenes for a while before ramping up this week as Webster secured a release from his Turkish team Petkim Spor - where he’d been averaging 8.3p/1.9r/2.7a in a shade under 20 minutes per game, with shooting splits of 44/37/54. That was TW’s first season with the team although he did previously play for Galatasaray in the same country/league prior to his Breakers stint.
No guesses as to the motivation here. The Webster Bros are very close and have played some of their best basketball alongside each other, particularly for the Tall Blacks. Corey Webster signed with Perth in the offseason and initially took some time settling in before putting on a clinic against the NZ Breakers which rekindled his form. A game-winner against Melbourne followed and has scored 20+ in four of his last six games. He was unreal on New Year’s Eve, hitting 5/6 three pointers for 25 points with 5 rebounds and 3 assists. Perth have also won five out of six and are seeking to make a charge at the finals. Enter Tai Webster.
There is a wee bit of friskiness here as Tai Webster is a predominant ball-handler who had some extremely high usage rates when he was with the Breakers (playing Dan Shamir ball tbf). Perth already has Bryce Cotton running the show and that’s not about to change so TW will have to be comfortable off the ball and with the second unit. That’s fantastic for the Cats though, as he has replaced Corey Shervill on the roster in an obvious upgrade as a local player capable of dominating a game. If he settles into the bench unit then that gives them some much needed depth shooting. And of course it’s a tidy signing to bolster the kiwi numbers in the NBL.
Hey, guess who his first game is likely to be against? The New Zealand Breakers, funnily enough. Away against his old team on Wednesday night. It doesn’t seem like the Websters left the club on the best terms. The vax stuff didn’t help but both of them already had valid reasons to be frustrated with how they were treated on and occasionally off the court, particularly Corey who also randomly (and inexcusably) copped a shot from the Breakers social media in the lead-up to that breakthrough game a few weeks back. That one’s gonna be a belter.
Steven Adams’ last three games...
at Toronto: 14 PTS (7/11 FG) | 17 REB (8 OFF) | 3 AST
vs New Orleans: 10 PTS (4/6 FG) | 21 REB (5 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 BLK | 2 STL
vs Sacramento: 11 PTS (5/12 FG) | 23 REB (13 OFF) | 3 AST | 2 BLK
All three of these games were victories, coming after a spell where the Memphis Grizzlies had lost 4/5 to slip out of the top couple seeds in the Western Conference. How is it that they got back to winning ways? Home games sure helped given that they’re now 15-3 at home and 8-10 away... but also they employed the tried and true formula of Get The Big Man Involved. The 13 offensive rebounds he got against the Kings this arvo are a new career high for Funaki. Oh yeah and the last two were on back to back nights so bagged 44 rebounds in the space of about 24 hours.
Three-point shooting has been slaying the Grizz lately but it feels like a cheeky rebalance of their offence (also note that Ja Morant had a career high in assists in the Toronto win that broke the drought) has paid some chunky dividends. These three games also include two of the only three instances all season in which Steve-o has attempted 11 or more field goals. It ain’t a coincidence.
