Sights On The Horizon
Sights On The Horizon
White Ferns contracts, Flying Kiwis footy contracts, Bracewell selections, Steven Adams: WNBA Fan, Warriors/Kiwi-NRL & more
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Podcast
Reading Menu
Flying Kiwis – May 24 (Football)
All Whites vs Costa Rica: Squad Yarns (Football)
Exploring The Possible White Ferns World Cup Squad (Cricket)
2022 Women’s World Cup: Aotearoa’s White Ferns Squad (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
NZC and White Ferns decision makers continue to baffle minds. Wahine contracts are far more important than Blackcap contracts because they take players from not professional to professional while I generally pay no attention to Blackcaps contracts. Through this lens I am able to see how contracting young players could be a good idea as it is likely to speed up player development.
NZC and White Ferns have a horrible record of talent identification and player development though. The White Ferns demise featured two main factors as the best players declined and role-players were unable to perform at an adequate level. Both of those things happened under coach Bob Carter and he was rewarded for this with another high performance job. Bryan Stronarch is the GM of high performance and everything seems rather cozy for these blokes who have overseen the demise of White Ferns cricket.
Shuffling older, more experienced players out of the White Ferns mix is interesting. I tend not to buzz about what players 'deserve' as we deserve to earn full-time money for our Niche Cache mahi but most folks don't get what they deserve. Coach Carter oversaw the decline of these older players and one can looks at their stats to suggest that a new era needs to begin.
In Aotearoa we are fortunate to have the concept of mana as the soil of this land. When the players with the most mana are mismanaged this lowers the mana of the team. Combine that with the culture of a team when all the players know who the best players are and those best players are not selected; players know that they don't have the best possible team on the park because of selection decisions.
That is not a winning culture and mana dissolves.
While I love the young wahine cricket wave, I predict further White Ferns demise. I'll take this further to add Black Sticks wahine and Black Ferns for three Aotearoa wahine teams that will continue to slide down their sporting rankings and Aotearoa wahine rankings. We are still waiting for a White Ferns coach to be announced (possibly Aussie wahine Joanne Broadbent) and all three of these teams have blokes running their respective set ups.
I consistently highlight how blokes hinder wahine sport. Blokes are responsible for the White Ferns woes and blokes are responsible for Black Ferns dramas. White Ferns continue to skew younger and won't be able to compete with international teams who are enjoying rapid growth. Black Ferns feel like they are under immense pressure after a niggly phase and we saw how that played out for White Ferns. Black Sticks wahine simply don't have world-class talent.
I predict these three teams will struggle and decline in coming years. Football Ferns have already passed through that phase to emerge on the other side and I predict strong futures for them, along with Tall Ferns (basketball) and Kiwi Ferns (league).
As part of our weekly Patreon Aotearoa cricket podcasts, a member of the Patreon whanau Baxter Rogers asked about the Michael Bracewell bracket of kiwi cricketers. Bracewell earned a Test squad call up by averaging 19 in the Plunket Shield last summer and Mitchell Santner is the only lad below with a lower First Class batting average.
Why the sudden Bracewell selection aroha? First is how Blackcaps matters differ greatly to White Ferns selection ideals. White Ferns skew younger with players who barely play domestic cricket and don't do much when they do play - not conducive with winning. Blackcaps seem to skew towards solid veterans and only two lads listed below are under 30-years-old. My read is that Bracewell has leap-frogged Rachin Ravindra (who leap-frogged Mitchell Santner) in the spinning/all-rounder department.
I highlighted Bracewell as the best domestic cricket leader last summer and his consistency of character is probably a notable factor too. Coaches, captains and senior players want players they can rely on and trust. Bracewell doesn't churn out runs or wickets like the others but it is clear that the Blackcaps environment trusts Bracewell. Such role-playing ideals are conducive to winning.
Michael Bracewell - 31yrs
Career: 33.30avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 190 runs @ 19avg.
Daryl Mitchell - 30yrs
Career: 37.70avg.
Glenn Phillips - 25yrs
Career: 39.08avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 96 runs @ 49.33avg.
Rachin Ravindra - 22yrs
Career: 36.26avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 343 runs @ 38.11avg.
Tom Bruce - 30yrs
Career: 47.18avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 858 runs @ 143avg.
Mitchell Santner - 30yrs
Career: 29.30avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 192 runs @ 48avg.
Cole McConchie - 30yrs
Career: 34.09avg.
2021/22 Plunket Shield: 445 runs @ 34.23avg.
In yesterday's podcast we rambled about NZ Warriors fandom and how confusing everything is. When sporting matters are confusing, that's when one should chill out and let natural forces get busy. Don't get too high or too down on NZ Warriors right now. One example of the extremes operating here is the battle between the 'Warriors suck at junior development and systems' narrative vs what the club is actually doing.
Yes the Warriors record of junior development is similar to Aotearoa White Ferns. NZ Warriors have also churned out all these junior things so far this year…
January: Warriors U18 Sevens in Condor Sevens
March-April: Players in U16 Shaun Johnson and U18 Dean Bell Cup (wider Auckland region)
March-April: Players in NZRL National Under 20s
April-May: Players in Auckland U16 squad for North Island tour
April-May: U18 Warriors Invitational Squad North Island Tour
February-May: Players in Redcliffe Dolphins U18
April-Ongoing: Players in Redcliffe Dolphins U21s
May-Ongoing: Players in Auckland Fox Memorial (Premier Men)
Yes NZ Warriors have struggled to get the best out of juniors for a long time and they are also doing the most with their junior pipelines right now. Both ideas exist, so chill.
An extra Kiwi-NRL wrinkle: none of the above Warriors junior mahi is exclusively Warriors stuff. Every NRL club has a presence in Aoteraoa, while many NRL clubs have contracted juniors who also took part in these events (Condor Sevens, Shaun Johnson/Dean Bell Cups, NZRL U20s etc). Do not pay any attention to the 'NRL catchment area' yarns as every NRL club uses Aotearoa as a farm system. All glory to Aotearoa.
No Redcliffe U21s or Q Cup this weekend, which means a week off for all Warriors juniors with Redcliffe.
Hayze Perham was doing a solid job on the wing for Eels in NRL, taking his opportunity for NRL minutes. Now Eels have some players back from injury and Perham drops back down to centre in NSW Cup. Perham played four games of NSW Cup earlier in the season with three starts at fullback, one start at centre. These are his best positions and that provides context for what Perham did in plugging a hole at wing for Eels.
Funky Kiwi-NRL battle in NSW Cup this weekend. Western Suburbs Magpies are the Tigers reserve grade team and that means Michael Maguire's Kiwi-NRL voodoo is all over the squad. They face Sharks who have one of the better low key Kiwi-NRL crews this season.
Magpies: Junior Tupou, Trey Peni, Junior Pauga, Israel Ogden, Joseph Taipari, Austin Dias, Tukimihia Simpkins.
Sharks: Mawene Hiroti, Kayal Iro, Jenson Taumoepeau, Reubenn Rennie, Tyler Slade, Caleb Uele.
Despite Daine Laurie's return to fullback for Tigers, the Kiwi-NRL presence stays solid. Starford To'a moves to centre with Asu Kepaoa and Ken Maumalo on the wings. That's three of five Tigers outside backs who played junior footy in Aotearoa, while four of the five outside backs named for Magpies played junior footy in Aotearoa. 10 outside backs across both teams, seven from the Kiwi-NRL stable.
Tigers also have Zane Musgrove, Kelma Tuilagi and Fa'amanu Brown in their team to face Rabbitohs.
Payne Haas kicks up a stink at Brisbane Broncos?
Fantastic Kiwi-NRL news here as Haas' likely departure opens up space for young Broncos Kiwi-NRL forwards. Jordan Riki is playing every week on an edge while TC Robati has been in and out of NRL footy this season. Xavier Willison is a Kiwi-NRL monster who I've highlighted many times in previous emails and he returned from injury with extended bench selection this week. Robati and Willison would benefit greatly from Haas' departure.
Amber Hall is the first NRLWahine signing for the upcoming campaign - the second season this year. Hall has only played NRLWahine footy for Broncos and is the most powerful runner in NRLW, also a leading offloader. This will be a weird market as there will be plenty of player movement between clubs in the coming weeks and I'll be here updating all NRLWahine signings.
Aotearoa's combat sports force Team City Kickboxing has added a fresh wrinkle to their excellence with Alexander Volkanovski returning to the CKB gym. Volkanovski and coach Joe Lopez are based in Sydney but have worked with CKB for a while now, combining forces to build some of the most intricate MMA fighting ever seen in back to back wins over Max Holloway. Now Volkanovski is preparing for his third fight against Holloway and after two years of logistical mayhem, this will all go down within the walls of a wee building in central Auckland.
Of course Aotearoa's own UFC, PFL (Genah Fabian) and boxers (Junior Fa and Hemi Ahio) are all preparing for an epic few months. Team CKB already has a top-tier Aotearoa team culture, with immense mana and this will be amplified as the world's best combat athletes train together under the same roof.
Wildcard’s Notebook
Flying Kiwis Contract Days
It’s not quite Transfer Season yet but we are in the period directly before another window, when many European seasons are coming to a close and clubs are doing their squad housekeeping. Deciding who they want to keep and who gets cut loose.
A lot of contract details aren’t necessarily made public or easy to find so you kinda have to wait and see with a lot of them, plus many women’s footy deals are just automatic one-year contracts which is slowly changing, bigger (read: financially secure) clubs definitely do offer longer term stability, but there are only a handful of kiwi players at those sorts of clubs these days.
The major yarn here is Ryan Thomas being released by PSV. Spoke on that one in Monday’s email and also in Flying Kiwis the following day. He’s a free agent but his injury probably precludes him from signing anywhere else for a wee while, hence he’s been allowed to continue to train and use the facilities in Eindhoven as he continues his recovery.
Heaps of goal-keeper chat here for some random reason. Zac Jones has re-upped with Haverfordwest County in the Welsh Premier division. He joined them after the last NZ National League term so only spent half a season with the club, getting on the bench several times but only actually playing for the development team. But they’ve re-signed him so that’s a great sign of progress.
Matthew Gould has agreed to stay on with Altrincham in the English National League (fifth tier). He did get some first team minutes there last term though also went out on loan for game time. Meanwhile Jamie Searle was released by Swansea City having spent a couple years in their U23 team so he’s on the lookout for his next opportunity as well.
George Stanger has been offered the chances to stay at Scottish fourth tier club Dumbarton after spending the second half of the previous campaign there on loan and getting plenty of starts. They didn’t actually say that he’d signed the offer though, only that it was on the table. Dumbarton just got relegated so we’ll see. Stanger recently signed with a new agency so that suggests he may have his sights set a little further out towards the horizon.
Of course we’ve also got Anna Leat’s situation on the table. Chose to leave West Ham along with her manager and several other first team players but there has been a rumour of interest from Aston Villa and based on how she performed in her few appearances last term you’ve gotta think that the Villans won’t be alone in firing off some exploratory emails.
Leat played four WSL matches so it’s a small sample size but she had the fourth best PSxG +/- stat in the entire comp. To translate that into normal people speak, that stat stands for Post-Shot Expected Goals minus Goals Conceded. In other words, it’s a measurement on how likely a keeper is to save the shots that they face.
Leat conceded three times from an xG of 4.7 which is a remarkable rate. She had a save percentage of 90% (17 saves from 20 shots faced)... and one of those goals conceded was a penalty. Two clean sheets. Really good distributions stats too, completing 95.2% of passes under 30 yards (so, excluding long balls). You play like that at age 20 in your first season as a pro and you’d better believe that scouts are gonna be paying attention.
This is only going by confirmed situations so, for example, Stefan Marinovic is presumably a free agent now at the conclusion of his season in Israel (his team got relegated) but no word on any contract offers or a release yet.
Still waiting to hear that Ria Percival’s option has been picked up by Tottenham. She was a key player before her injury so it’s surely only a matter of formality even if she is going to miss probably the first half of next season. Spurs are the only WSL team yet to reveal those deets.
CJ Bott wasn’t mentioned as Leicester City released a few players, one of which being Esme De Graaf who is returning to the Netherlands to play for Feyenoord. Key point there being that De Graaf played 21 games at fullback for the Foxes last season so there’s Botty’s pathway into the starting team, mate. Elsewhere promoted Liverpool released Meikayla Moore, annoyingly but predictably.
Also while there hasn’t been word on Vic Esson’s spot with relegated SC Sand, the club has announced a new goalkeeper signing for 2022-23 which they referred to as a “replacement for the vacant position in goal”, suggesting that Esson won’t be extending her short-term stay (as expected).
Andre De Jong’s contract with AmaZulu is coming to an end after three years. They’ll have a new manager next season which could factor into things. He played way more this past term than he did in either of his previous campaigns but it remains to be seen whether that was enough. Also I recall some hints that Ashleigh Ward was training with a WSL Championship club around the time of one of the recent Footy Ferns camps. Now that her season is done, that could be something to keep an eye on.
And last but not least we’ve got Jacqui Hand extending her deal with Åland United through until the end of the year. She had initially only signed for half a season but has made an immediate impact with goals and assists and pretty much made it a no brainer for the club to keep her around.
Some other notable kiwi free agents at the moment include Winston Reid, Daisy Cleverley, Rosie White, Joe Champness, and as of recently Kosta Barbarouses too. The chat for a few weeks now has been that James McGarry will sign with Newcastle Jets.
Steven Adams: WNBA Fan
Curious to see that Steven Adams was spotted sitting courtside for not one but two consecutive home games for the Washington Mystics in the WNBA. Not sure what his connection is to the Mystics or what he was doing in Washington but s’pose when there’s good basketball to be viewed you go on ahead and view it. It’s always cool to see how many NBA guys actually genuinely support the WNBA... plenty other sports could learn from that kinda solidarity to be honest.
The first game he was sitting with old mate Jerami Grant, a former teammate on the Oklahoma City Thunder who now plays for the Detroit Pistons, as well as having a hug and a chat with the great Candace Parker after she delivered a big game-winning performance for the Chicago Sky (CP claiming that she’s a huge fan of him lol)...
The second game he was getting photos in with Washington’s Japanese guard Rui Machiru...
Also here’s his exit interview which the Memphis Grizzlies finally uploaded in full...
Good yarns.