Primed/Dazed
Primed/Dazed
Warriors lose to Broncos in Napier, NBL top dogs, Dontae Russo-Nance & Perth Wildcats, Auckland City win the OCL, plus domestic football roundups
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2023 NRLWahine: Breaking Down All Aotearoa Wahine in NRLW (Rugby League)
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Stay Ready Broncos With Deine Mariner & Xavier Willison (Rugby League)
The 2023 Wellington Phoenix Offseason Preview – Part 1: The Women (Football)
The 2023 Wellington Phoenix Offseason Preview – Part 2: The Men (Football)
Joseph Parker Did The Knockout Thing Against Faiga Opelu, So That Was Nice (Boxing)
2023 Kiwi County Tour: Matt Henry Slugging, Ajaz Patel's 10 Wicket Baggy (Cricket)
Forecasting The Blackcaps 2023 ODI World Cup Squad (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
Tough weekend for NZ Warriors footy as the NRL team lost 22-26 to Broncos and the NSW Cup team lost 14-24 to Panthers. As noted in Friday's newsletter dispatch, the Kiwi-NRL Broncos were fabulous in their returns to Aotearoa led by Jordan Riki's energy and two tries for Deine Mariner. Waikato's Xavier Willison also came off the bench and I broke down the Mariner/Willison pocket in a Kiwi-NRL Spotlight yarn.
Warriors were well below par and looked off. That is most evident in their 70% completion rate and how various individual decisions compounded Warriors woes. This was especially intriguing given how Warriors were coming off a break and should have been primed for this encounter in Napier. Warriors definitely weren't primed and instead seemed to be in a bit of a daze.
Warriors only lost by 4 points though and had a few small aspects of the game swung in their favour, they would have won. Warriors also won most stat categories apart from the scoreboard and completion rates which flows into possession. Given Warriors are still third for NRL completion rates, this is not the status-quo and they probably should have lost this game by more.
But Broncos were missing so many players to State of Origin?
That was the storyline heading into the game and Sky Sports commentators kept bringing up an old school theme of 'Baby Broncos'. Let's break this down…
Warriors were missing four starters in Mitchell Barnett, Te Maire Martin, Dylan Walker and Wayde Egan. Broncos were missing five players to Origin in Selwyn Cobbo, Reece Walsh, Patrick Carrigan, Thomas Flegler and Payne Haas.
Both teams were missing players. Broncos still had their best halves combination in Adam Reynolds and Ezra Mam. Broncos also have the NRL's best centre pair in Kotoni Staggs and Herbie Farnworth. Kurt Capewell and Jordan Riki start every game as edge forwards for Broncos. Billy Walters and Cory Paix have rotated through dummy half all season for Broncos.
Baby Broncos? Like 29-year-old Corey Jensen and 33-year-old Martin Tauapu?
This was not a crappy Broncos team. NRL success depends on whether a team can win when missing top-17 players and Broncos have immense depth, which is why an elite young talent like Mariner had to wait this long to make his first appearance of the season.
Broncos also came prepared for the challenge of playing against Warriors. Coach Kevin Walters had his team condense their defensive line and this stunted Warriors attack as their was less space in the middle. Missing Walker and Egan meant less Warriors passing/craft through the middle as well. This is different to Bulldogs for example, who have had their middle torn apart by Warriors in both games this season.
While these examples below both result in overlaps, they show Jesse Arthars hovering around the dash mark and Mariner leaving 15m to the sideline. This bumps all the Broncos players closer together where there aren’t many gaps for Warriors to target…
I’m curious to see how this looks when the full game is available on Youtube as these examples may just be Warriors overlaps. It felt like Broncos did this around halfway as well when Warriors weren’t shifting and I’ll dive into it during the week. Broncos were also aggressive on the edges with two levels (sagging to counter Addin Fonua-Blake, forward for the shift). Jordan Riki leaves his opposite Jackson Ford to rush Luke Metcalf…
This involves Metcalf playing his first game in the halves. While Metcalf is an eager runner, he lacks the crisp passing composure of Te Maire Martin and Broncos were eager to put pressure on Metcalf's distribution.
All of which came in a 4 point loss. Warriors had many good players and were still able to find space through the middle via Addin Fonua-Blake and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, as well as down the flanks. This is not a loss to generate concern, this is a loss that shows how niggly NRL footy is. Regardless of what the other team is up to it's very difficult to win NRL games when playing a smidge below your best.
NZ Warriors stat profile
Tries: 13th - 40
Penalties Conceded: 5th - 72
Missed Tackles: 6th - 401
Offloads: 13th - 84
Dummy Half Runs: 16th - 71
Set Completion: 3rd - 81%
Kick Return Metres: 3rd - 2,310
Kicking Metres: 4th - 7,572
Linebreaks: 8th - 55
Post Contact Metres: 10th - 5,795
Run Metres: 8th - 19,933
Tackle Breaks: 5th - 402
Of course, this game featured pitch-invading abundance. Don't let this overshadow what is happening with rugby league in Aotearoa as a crowd of 16,195 turned out in Napier. Only five games were played this round and that was the second biggest crowd of the round, beaten by 20,661 folks in Newcastle. Eels hosting Cowboys and Rabbitohs hosting Raiders in Sydney both had smaller crowds than Napier.
This continues a theme of rugby league games played outside Auckland this year...
All Stars in Rotorua: 17,644
NZ Warriors trial in Christchurch: 12,000
NZ Warriors vs Knights in Wellington: 16,676
Meanwhile at Mt Smart...
vs Bulldogs: 18,595
vs Cowboys: 23,695
vs Roosters: 20,395
I'll ease up on comparing these figures to other sports in Aotearoa. Aotearoa loves rugby league. Warriors games at Mt Smart are big events in Auckland. The funkiest aspect is the stuff outside Auckland and after seeing a fizzed up crowd in Rotorua for the All Stars game, there are now three more examples of folks around Aotearoa engaging with NRL footy.
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
There’s a new leader atop the NBL, folks. Well, sort of. Two defeats in a row have seen Otago Nuggets drop down into the chasing back, beaten by Hawke’s Bay over the weekend. Otago are 7-2 while the Canterbury Rams and Auckland Tuatara are each 7-3 but when more than two teams are tied for the same win tally apparently they split them by points differential (it’s head to head if it’s only two teams level) and Otago are the worst of the three in that regard. Long way to go yet though. Including further games between all of those challengers.
The Nuggets losing to the Hawks was a funky one; safe to say it was a win that Hawke’s Bay needed a lot more than their opponents did. I’ve written a lot about the Hawks in previous emails, with their lack of depth and reliance on the streakiness of their shooters causing a halt for a team that initially looked like a title contender. So ‘twas great for them to see two bench players (Jordan Hunt & Derona Ruakawa) each scoring at least 15 points on better than 50% shooting while import Ira Lee was superb for his 24 points and 11 rebounds including the bucket that gave them the lead with three seconds remaining.
HBH then backed that up with a 106-87 offensive explosion away to Southland Sharks. Jordan Ngatai scored 27 points with 7/13 from deep. Hyrum Harris scored 20 on 8/9 field goal shooting. Then those two bench lads added another 29 combined points as well. Strong areas for the Hawks who rise to 5-6 with those wins, returning to the top six (albeit with the most games played of any team so far).
The Wellington Saints are the other team on the rise to be wary of – they beat the Rams 91-84 with every starter in double figures for scoring, led by Isaiah Mucius with 27. Kyle Adnam dished another 10 assists. And this was without Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa who who is due to return to the team soon. The Saints have won three of their last four games, scoring 100+ points in two of those wins... and allowing 100 points in the loss. The Rams win was their first whilst scoring less than triple figures.
Meanwhile the Auckland Tuatara keep on rolling with their fourth win in a row, topping Manawatu 104-98 in a high scorer. Reuben Te Rangi was excellent for his 30 points (9/17 from the field). Rob Loe had a cheeky 25 points and 11 rebounds... only the 3 assists though, bit greedy from him compared to recent numbers. Also Franklin Bulls ground out an 81-70 win over Nelson Giants which has them sitting at 6-3 and right there in the hunt themselves. If Tyrell Harrison comes back soon then it’s a clear top four in the championship quest. Already kinda is considering the Rams, Tuatara, Nuggets, and Rams are the four teams with winning records currently.
There was always a fierce rivalry between the NZ Breakers and Perth Wildcats, particularly around that golden era when no other Aussie NBL team could win a championship except for those two. Some magnificent postseason battles between the foes. But that rivalry is a little different right now because with the signing of Dontae Russo-Nance as a development player for the Wildcats, Perth currently have as many kiwis on their roster as the Breakers do.
That will change when the Breaks add out a few more names. Rob Loe feels like a pretty obvious one for them to go and get done plus there’s plenty more local big man talent in the NZ NBL to continue filling things out, Sam Timmins being high on that list as one of their own free agents. Not to mention the rest of their DP spots. Might just be that they’re waiting to see what happens with their imports – remember the Breakers have not yet re-signed a single import since the ownership change... but there’s interest in bringing back all three from last term.
As it stands though, it’s 5v5 between the Breakers and the Wildcats. Don’t need a single Aussie on the court when these two face off. What a possibility! The Breakers five would have a bit more size about it but then the ‘Cats are the ones with all the scoring. Not only did they bring back both Webster Brothers on renegotiated terms but they added an absolute steal in Hyrum Harris while Jack Andrew will serve DP duties alongside DRN – and also alongside Michael Harris, an Aussie shooter who is currently nailing threes for the Otago Nuggets.
Kiwis in NBL24
NZ Breakers – Tom Abercrombie, Izayah Mauriohooho-Le’afa, Tom Vodanovich, Dan Fotu, Alex McNaught (DP)
Perth Wildcats – Corey Webster, Tai Webster, Hyrum Harris, Jack Andrew (DP), Dontae Russo-Nance (DP)
Melbourne United – Shea Ili, Flynn Cameron
Cairns Taipans – Sam Waardenburg, Sam Mennenga
SEM Phoenix – Reuben Te Rangi, Anzac Rissetto (DP)
Brisbane Bullets – Tyrell Harrison
Tasmania JackJumpers – Walter Brown (DP)
The Russo-Nance thing is awesome. He’s signed a three-year deal with the first as a DP and then the next two as a fully contracted squad member (not sure if there’s a club option involved there or not). The 18yo Aucklander is straight-up one of the very top basketballing prospects from Aotearoa right now, in fact he even partook in the Basketball Without Borders global camp during NBA All Star weekend, one of 40 international youngsters to be involved with that and the only New Zealander this year.
DRN was Youth Player of the Year with the Auckland Tuatara in 2022 and had transferred from Saint Kentigern College to Oak Hill Academy in Virginia (same high school as Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony) to presumably prepare him for a college career... but college ball is no longer the be all and end all for foreign prospects. If you’re after a degree and a great life experience then sweet as. If you’re aiming for the NBA then suddenly there are other (and perhaps better) pathways now open... and that includes the NBL. Russo-Nance signing a three-year deal means saying later bro to the college idea and locking in on the early professional pathway instead.
We’ve seen the Next Star system pivot towards international players over the last two years. Russo-Nance isn’t a Next Star but he is a prospect with hopes of making the NBA someday and we have also seen a heap of local players elevated to the big league from out of the NBL. So far only Aussies... but we live in hope. Before Steven Adams retires he is going to have some kiwi company in the NBA, you can bank on that.
Good news: Auckland City won the Oceania Champions League for the eleventh time overall and the ninth time in the last eleven tournaments. It didn’t come easy for them though, jeepers. Nor has anything this OCL with the exception of one default win in the group stage.
After needing penalties to get past local Vanuatu side Black Bird in the semis, it took extra time to beat Suva of Fiji. Goals from Angus Kilkolly (34’) and Ryan De Vries (45+3’) had them up two at the break and things were looking swell. Kilkolly’s was a penalty down the middle after Nathan Lobo had his heels clipped. RDV’s goal was a super bit of work running in behind, showing strength to hold off his man, then burying a wicked left footed strike. But then Gerard Garriga got sent off after an hour and life comes at you fast with ten men.
To be fair I’ve got no idea what GGG actually did wrong. He was already on a yellow when he tumbled over an opponent going for a header. Bit clumsy but not really dangerous. The other dude then got up and pushed him while Garriga stayed down hurt from the landing but a yellow card went his way too and that was the end of his tournament. Suva then scored almost immediately catching ACFC out with some soft back post defending off a cross and then in the 84th minute a deflected long shot dipped under the bar to send us all to extra time.
However then came Suva’s turn for a red card, ironically it was the same bloke who saw yellow in the Garriga incident getting his own second booking. Soon Cam Howieson slid one into the bottom corner on 108’ before De Vries added a second right at the end for the 4-2 victory. Up with the trophy. Auckland City are going to the Club World Cup again… although you’ve never seen it happen quite like this before. Not a single clean sheet across four games, with both knockout fixtures needing extra time. Still, doesn’t matter how you win as long as you do and Auckland City always do.
Now onwards with the Domestic Football Roundup...
ACFC have dropped to third for having missed three weeks of Northern League footy, Eastern Suburbs keeping their own room tidy in the meantime with three straight wins. The latest of those was a 1-0 squeaker away against Auckland United with a first half goal for Jake Mechell proving the diffo. Remember Eastern Suburbs have three players in the U20 World Cup squad too: Adam Supyk, Aaryan Raj, and Jackson Jarvie (all three of whom started the Argentina game... although that’s nothing to brag about).
Nobody scored more than twice in the Northern League in round eleven. Manurewa edged Bay Olympic to move up to second in City’s absence, also putting three points between themselves and AK Utd. Melville beat Western Springs 2-1 to keep the latter from jumping ahead of Auckland United and thus bring Melville right into the top four mix, along with Birkenhead United who drew 2-2 away to Hamilton Wanderers – two more goals for Derek Tieku who now has 13 for the season... no other Northern player has more than seven (Nicolas Bobadilla of Rewa Martin Bueno of ES).
Ah but the most notable result was the 2-1 Takapuna win over West Coast Rangers. From 1-0 down after 85 minutes to a Luke Allport double off the bench sending them to victory. Second minute of stoppage time was the clincher. That was Taka’s first win of the season and it means that every Northern team has at least one dub… plus it gets Taka off bottom on goal difference over Manukau United, albeit still in the relegation zone. Taka and Manukau are on 5 points. Bay Olympic are on 6 points. Then it’s WCR on 13 points... so looking like a three horse race for two relegation spots.
The Central League featured a 5-2 Wellington Olympic win away to Western Suburbs. First loss of the season for WS with Ben Mata scoring a couple goals in his 100th appearance for Olympic. That opens up a six point gap at the top for Olympic over Suburbs, although it does seem that Wests have scooped up Josh Rogerson in a transfer going back the other way. Rogerson was one of the lads who joined Olympic for the OCL qualifiers then stayed on for the first seven games (even scoring a couple goals, not bad for a defender). But Western Subs announced him, Oscar Hough, Ryan Harrison, Bruno Penney, and Fraser Brown all as new signings this morning. New old signings, to be more specific. All Ole Academy lads. Most of them back to play during their US college offseasons.
Only two other Central games. Waterside Karori beat Whanganui Athletic 3-1 to ensure that WA have now lost nine out of nine since promotion. Napier City Rovers also beat North Wellington 3-1 to jump ahead of Petone and Miramar Rangers and into the last National League qualifying spot, granted that’s with an extra game played. There have been byes there as well due to the heavy Wellington Phoenix contingent in the U20s. And also apparently Stop Out’s pitch got wrecked or something so they had to postpone their match. We’ve all been there before, aye?
Two massive results down South. First was that Cashmere Tech drew 1-1 with Christchurch United which thus broke the last remaining perfect record across the motu. United are still undefeated but they’re no longer perfect. No surprises whatsoever that the two goals were scored by Garbhan Coughlan and Sam Philip... each their league-leading 13th of the season already.
That was a big result but not really a shock result. The shock result of the week was Coastal Spirit getting up over Dunedin City Royals 1-0. Okay, that wasn’t a huge shock either, especially not when Coastal were at home, but it does cause a blow to DCR’s hopes of keeping pace with the top two and challenging for the Natties. Technical dropped points yet they still gained one on DCR.
There had been chat that Western Springs’ women would be in big trouble if they defaulted consecutive games. Like, kicked out of the league kinda trouble. So after missing last week they returned despite the ongoing mediation process with their club board and you know what? They won 3-0 away to Hibiscus Coast. All three goals scored in the first half. Elsewhere there was a 2-0 for West Coast Rangers away to Hamilton Wanderers and also a win for Ellerslie 3-0 away to Northern Rovers - ol’ Rovers still without a point after eight games as defending champs... not that it really counts with a completely new squad this year.
That’s because their coach and best players all went to Auckland United but while AUFC have seemed to be figuring that sneaky merger out lately they still aren’t all there yet because they hit a brick wall in the form of the national champions this week. Popped 4-1 at home by Eastern Suburbs. Goals for Saki Yoshida (9’), Nicole Mettam (33’), Zoe Benson (46’), and Deven Jackson (53’) with Rene Wasi getting a consolation on 66’. All four of those Subs girls were big parts of their National League title and this was a superb way for them to leave things before representing Aotearoa at the first ever women’s Oceania Champions League next week. Or... it would have been had they not pulled out of the competition. Didn’t like the rushed scheduling of the tournament and weren’t happy with how it was being run. So that’s a bummer. Ah well, onwards with the local domination instead then.
Finally, we now know the identities of the six teams that’ve qualified for the first ever Women’s Southern League. This after the Mainland comp wrapped up its single-round robin fixtures. We’ve got Coastal Spirit, Cashmere Technical, Universities of Canterbury & Nelson Suburbs from the Mainland Region and from Southern it’s Dunedin City Royals & Roslyn Wakari. Six teams spanning close to the entirety of the South Island from Nelson down to Dunedin. Should be fun.