Patterns & Clues
NZ Warriors weekend wrap, Auckland FC in the Aussie Cup. NZ-A cricket w/Curtis Heaphy, Finn Surman/Alex Paulsen/Ben Old/Macey Fraser updates, and more
Scotty’s Word
Three wins for NZ Warriors over the weekend with the NRLW team losing to Sharks being the only defeat. Bummer for the wahine who have now lost two of their three games in Hamilton. They are battling plenty of adversity and the young squad slipped up in the grind vs Sharks, which wasn't surprising, yet they are still only one point out of finals footy and have what should be an easier game vs Dragons coming up.
Weekend results
NRL: 32-18
NRLW: 14- 22
NSW Cup: 54-4
Jersey Flegg Cup: 26-10
Ladders
NRL: 4th | 14-8
NRLW: 7th | 3-5
NSW Cup: 1st | 20-5-1
Jersey Flegg Cup: 10th | 9-11-3
The NSW Cup Warriors win vs Eels was notable because half their team were Under 21s and they smoked the team that is now third. Similar for the U21s where Eels are now fifth and were beaten by then 10th placed Warriors. Every week I'm dropping notes about the NZW system below NRL for paid subscribers, as well as other Aotearoa rugby league bits and bobs. If Substack's not your preferred platform, the full newsletter is copied into Patreon for the generous folks funding our mahi.
The thing that has stuck with me after the win vs Titans is Eddie Ieremia-Toeava and how quickly he has settled into NRL, building towards a fabulous outing on the Gold Coast...
44mins, 1 try, 13 runs - 147m @ 11.3m/run, 1 tackle break, 20 tackles @ 91%
He stayed through the middle against Titans with Kurt Capewell playing the whole game at left edge and Leka Halasima coming on for Marata Niukore at right edge. Ieremia-Toeava played through the middle on debut vs Dolphins (24mins) and then played left edge vs Dragons (32mins), then he cruised through 44 minutes as a middle forward vs Titans.
The consistency and maturity of the 20-year-old doesn't stand out for these young NZW forwards because it's aligned with how Demitric Vaimauga, Leka Halasima, Tanner Stowers-Smith and Jacob Laban have entered NRL. Halasima has the best highlights but his ability to play 80mins at edge forward as a youngster is similar to how the others have gone about their mahi quietly and efficiently.
Laban's out injured at the moment and Vaimauga didn't play the Dolphins game, so here are the minutes for the young forwards in their last two games (which were both wins)...
vs Dragons
Leka Halasima: 48 (start)
Demitric Vaimauga: 41
Tanner Stowers-Smith: 33
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava: 32
vs Titans
Tanner Stowers-Smith: 41 (start)
Demitric Vaimauga: 31
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava: 44
Leka Halasima: 26
Ieremia-Toeava built towards this NRL stint by churning out 80mins in NSW Cup and has had three years of winning footy in reserve grade (at 18/19yrs). He has made 57 tackles with just one missed tackle and 98.2% efficiency, covering middle and edge. This is similar to how Stowers-Smith has entered NRL footy as he played 40+ games of NSW Cup and at 21-years-old he has played 30+ minutes in his last three games after hitting that mark in one of his first seven games.
Last week I put a spotlight of Christchurch's Jordan Riki for paid subscribers and he had another strong outing for Broncos vs Knights...
vs Knights: 1 try, 14 runs - 140m @ 10m/run, 6 tackle breaks, 1 offload, 34 tackles @ 87%
Riki is a reliable edge forward at 25 years old, reflecting his status as a high pedigree junior in Aotearoa. The Hornby junior has added running oomph to his gritty mahi this season and this propels him into top-tier NZ Kiwis status.
Riki's last four seasons
2022: 22 games, 74.8mins, 76m, 92.17% tackling
2023: 22 games, 75.3mins, 80m, 91.77% tackling
2024: 22 games, 78mins, 81m, 92.68% tackling
2025: 19 games, 77.5mins, 106m, 92.71% tackling
Raiders had an NRLW win vs Bulldogs and that means they won't finish with one win this season - against 11 players. Raiders won 56-24 and after struggling through the first half of the season with a squad full of NRLWahine, the Aotearoa flavour has helped them grab a couple wins.
Madison Bartlett (Wairoa), Kerehitina Matua (Manurewa) and Amelia Pasikala (Wairoa) didn't play vs Bulldogs. Isabella Waterman (Sydenham) returned to the team on the wing to give Raiders four NRLWahine in their back five along with Mackenzie Wiki (Manurewa), Leianne Tufuga (Otara), Cheyelle Robins-Reti (Taranaki). Tatiana Finau (Mt Albert) was starting edge forward - her second game starting and playing 60+ minutes in her five appearances this season.
Roosters and Broncos are the best teams in NRLW. Both had big wins over the weekend with Amber Hall (Richmond) playing 30+ minutes in her seven games this season and she has a 17-1 record in three years with Roosters.
Broncos defeated Knights with Kerri Johnson (Kaikohe), Mele Hufanga (Southern Cross Campus/Ponsonby), Gayle Broughton (Hawera), Annetta Nu'uausala (Otara) and Brianna Clark (Sarina - QLD) in the team. Azalleyah Maaka (Gisborne) was also 18th-wahine vs Knights and that's her fourth game in that slot, plus she is cousins with Kalyn Takitimu-Cook who made her NRLW for NZW this weekend.
The NZ-A cricket squad was named for their upcoming tour of South Africa. I'm working through the nitty gritty stuff for paid subscribers beyond the wall. One player I want to highlight is Curtis Heaphy. He is one of the youngest players in the squad and was part of the group who toured Bangladesh earlier this year.
Curtis Heaphy - 22yrs - CD
FC: 37.41avg/37sr
LA: 49.62avg/68sr
T20: 30.9avg/113sr
In Bangladesh, Heaphy scored 15 runs @ 7.5avg in the two one-dayers and 71 runs in his one innings of the longform series. Heaphy was part of the young batting trio who almost led all three competitions for runs in Aotearoa last summer as he finished first for Ford Trophy runs, Matt Boyle (22yrs) was the leading run-scorer in Super Smash and Rhys Mariu (23yrs) was a few runs behind Nick Kelly in Plunket Shield.
Heaphy played a sneaky role in the Super Smash championship for Central Districts which blossomed into a knock of 50* @ 132sr in the Global Super League a month ago. That was Heaphy's only batting innings of the tournament so his last two scores are a gritty 71 and a swift 50* in overseas conditions.
2024/25 Plunket Shield: 445 runs @ 37avg/38sr - 12th
2024/25 Ford Trophy: 502 runs @ 71.7avg/78sr - 1st
2024/25 Super Smash: 195 runs @ 27.8avg/111sr
Heaphy can play as a wicket-keeper. He doesn't do it it regularly for CD as they have Dane Cleaver and Mitch Hay is in the NZ-A squad, but Heaphy did get a game as wicket-keeper in Bangladesh during the one-day series.
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
Auckland FC did what the Wellington Phoenix weren’t able to do by winning their Aussie Cup quarter-final. In AFC’s case, they needed penalties to get past Sydney FC. Lachlan Brook scored his first goal for the club with an 85th minute tap-in but then they conceded immediately to Joe Lolley (87’) to force extras. Nothing to split the two sides from there until Sydney FC bottled the penalty shootout missing three of their four attempts. Guillermo May also missed his but Sam Cosgrove, Francis De Vries, and Jake Brimmer were all sweet from the spot as AFC took the 3-1 shootout triumph.
Last round, Logan Rogerson switched to the left wing when Brook came on - this is Rogerson who played almost exclusively down the right for AFC last season. The same thing happened here, meaning they had a right-footed left winger and a left-footed right winger. Lots of cutting inside and hopefully dragging defenders away from the touchline to allow the fullbacks to access that room.
Two of the Sydney penalties were as bad as you’ll ever see. It was a slippery night in New South Wales, as was visible throughout the match, and that may explain the shenanigans… but Michael Woud did save one of the others and it’s always a boost for a goalie to win a shootout. Oli Sail is cup-tied so young Eli Jones was on the bench again... but there’s no doubt that Sail’s presence puts pressure on Woud to perform (even though I’m pretty confident that Woud is still the number one, as explained last Monday). This was another good outing from MW.
We’ve learned that Nando Pijnaker is going to be out for a couple of months after undergoing ankle surgery. That means that AFC won’t have Nando for the start of the season and Tommy Smith has also departed, leaving a hole in central defence. Hiroki Sakai has slid into the middle for the last two cup games, creating room for Callan Elliot to start. That’s probably not what they want heading into week one though... surely there’s central defensive depth on the way now that they’ve sorted their imports.
Having said that, Semi Nabenu is highly regarded (but currently out due to concussion protocols) and Luka Vicelich benefited again with another cameo off the bench in this match. Vicelich barely even played for the reserves until a couple of months ago and now he’s made two first team appearances. Part of the gig of covering teams like this is looking for patterns and taking the clues that the clubs offer us with their selections. Luka Vicelich’s rapid elevation (including the reserves winning games with him at the back) is one of those patterns/clues.
Michael Woud and Dan Hall are the only players who’ve done all 300 minutes through this Aussie Cup run. Hiroki Sakai and Guillermo May are only marginally behind having been subbed off late in the last round with the result already settled. Additionally, Cam Howieson, Felipe Gallegos, Marlee Francois, Logan Rogerson, and Jesse Randall have started all three games.
The Wellington Phoenix have a tendency to scoop up players from NZ age grade squads. Their academy is already providing several reps as it is, but it seems like after every U17 World Cup they raid a few more. There are Men’s and Women’s U17 WCs coming up in the remaining months of this year which means we can look forward to even more of this… though let us first take a peek at the previous instances, starting with the 2024 Women’s U17 WC because that’s what sparked this paragraph.
That squad was entirely NZ-based except for two players in Australia (Mary Brown and Maddison Sawkins) and one from England. The English dual-national was Katie Chellenbron, who at the time was in the Milton Keynes Dons system. This weekend she debuted off the bench for the Wellington Phoenix U18s all the way on the other side of the globe.
At the 2024 U17 Women’s World Cup, there were six Wellington Phoenix players in the 21-woman squad:
Alyssha Eglinton, Brooke Neary, Ela Jerez, Emily Humphrey, Grace Bartlett, and Katie Pugh.
Since that U17 WC, an additional five players have linked up with the Phoenix:
Amber De Wit (Nomads), Harriet Muller (Moturoa), Katie Chellenbron (MK Dons), Natalie Young (Hamilton Wanderers), and we might as well count Pia Vlok (Auckland United) even though she’s not joining the academy but the first team as a scholarship player, same as Ela Jerez before her.
At the U17 Men’s World Cup, there were 7/21 players already signed to the Nix:
Anaru Cassidy, Gabriel Sloane-Rodrigues, Luke Supyk, Jesper Edwards, Eamonn McCarron, Athan Thompson, and Paris Domfeh (a few of those haven’t been glimpsed much this year – including Domfeh who has moved north to Auckland City)
Since that U17 World Cup, the Welly Nix have picked up five more of them:
Dylan Gardiner (Hamilton Wanderers), Nathan Walker (Fencibles), Luke Mitchell (Hamilton Wanderers), Nick Murphy (Christchurch United), and Matt Foord (Cashmere Technical).
That’s just good recruitment. The Nix keep going after the best prospects in the country and offering them your superior coaching and facilities... although Auckland FC are now around to rival them for the top northern players. They’ve already added Matt D’Hotman to their reserves from that U17 World Cup and will have just as big a presence in the Men’s U20 World Cup squad coming up very soon. And even though the ALW team has been delayed for two more seasons (laaaaame), Auckland FC have declared their intention to start building up their women’s development structures right away (I see no reason why they can’t get a Women’s National League team ready for 2026 to help ease the way into the 2027-28 A-League).
If you read through Flying Kiwis last week, as you should have if you’re here reading this, then you’ll have come across a rare update from the Utah Royals about Macey Fraser. Having missed the second half of last season due to the ankle injury she suffered at the Olympics (she’d had an issue with the other ankle injury before that too), she returned fit and firing for the 2025 NWSL term and during preseason even seemed to threaten the starting eleven. She did indeed start two of the first three games of the season… but it was a monkey paw situation where she was stuck out on the wing where she was less effective and soon got benched. Then came a knee injury that kept her out for a couple of months.
That knee injury healed ages ago. Since then she’s been lifted off the injury list and has returned to full training. She’s even been involved in a street ball tournament hosted by NBA legend Steve Nash. Yet the coach continues to not pick her. Every line-up announcement has at least one comment asking where Macey Fraser is, but it was only last week that one of the journos around the team finally put the question to that coach. This is what he said...
Jimmy Coenraets, Utah Royals coach: “There's a whole background of why or why not Macey is involved in the game squad. I think that takes about 6 or 7 months of history and it's nothing Macey against us, not us against Macey. Macey's doing well at practice. She's doing her job. There's just other things happening for her right now which make it hard for us to involve her in the game squad. It's not about not wanting or not willing, it's just more like it's really a private matter that right now is keeping her out of the game squad. That's something as a coach, you have to take into account as well. Players have to want to really participate and feel in a very good spot to be able to participate. And that's just not always the case.”
You could read that as a criticism of her attitude. You could read that as there being personal reasons removing her from consideration. You could read that a lot of ways because for all those words he doesn’t actually say anything. In fact, he contradicts himself by claiming she’s somehow doing well at training yet isn’t in a good spot to play games. It’s nonsense word salad that only makes me more suspicious.
By the way, this is not the coach who signed her. That was Amy Rodriguez, former USA international and one-time roommate/teammate of Katie Bowen at a previous incarnation of the Utah Royals. Jimmy Coenraets is the Belgian bloke who replaced Rodriguez, whose profile on the Royals website claims that his “coaching philosophy emphasizes player development, both on and off the field. He fosters a positive and productive team environment and is known for his dedication to detail and commitment to winning”.
His Utah Royals team are currently last, having won 1/17 games this year. They were last in 2024 as well (granted, results were slightly better under Coenraets than under A-Rod).
Anyway, this situation feels eerily familiar... because Fraser is far from the first top kiwi talent to pop over to America and get stitched up by selections and unfair treatment. Almost all of them bounce back in their next gigs though. Here are a few recent examples...
Macey Fraser signs with Utah Royals for a record A-League fee but only plays sparsely throughout two years, with injuries only partly to blame and almost no explanation from the club in either season. Currently fit and training with the team but not being considered for squad for some obscure reason. Utah were the worst team in NWSL in both years and recently traded away one of USA’s very best emerging internationals, Ally Sentnor, who plays in Fraser’s exact position. Sentnor requested the trade.
Katie Bowen playing 91 minutes all season for NC Courage in 2022... then instantly becoming a regular starter for Melbourne City and Inter Milan. She’s got Champions League qualifiers coming up next week. Albeit, NCC do get credit for specialising her as a CB.
Milly Clegg joins Racing Louisville in 2024 and only makes one substitute appearance late in the season for a non-playoff team, despite being available on the bench for the whole second half of the year. They then loan her away to Halifax Tides in Canada for the 2025 season.
Grace Wisnewski joins USL Super League club Lexington SC and doesn’t get a run of starts until right near the end of the season despite Lexington finishing dead last. She then leaves and immediately joins a Champions League club in Denmark where she goes straight into the line-up.
Gabi Rennie going underrated at her college teams then promptly being awesome as a professional in both Finland and Sweden. Same deal with Maggie Jenkins in Turkey. Others, like Jacqui Hand, Hannah Blake, and Daisy Cleverley, had much more successful college careers but couldn’t earn any NWSL draft buzz so they signed really good deals in Europe instead (in Blake’s case that was after a couple years in the A-League).
Musical Jam...