Ninety Minutes Away
Ninety Minutes Away
Wellington Phoenix buzz, Warriors & Kiwi-NRL nuggets, NBL efficiency, Carlos Ulberg, White Ferns (non)development contracts & more
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Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Don't Play Like Panthers vs Panthers (Rugby League)
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Connelly Lemuelu Keeps Brewing With Dolphins (Rugby League)
Flying Kiwis – May 14 (Football)
Notes From The Wellington Phoenix’s Semi-Final First Leg vs Melbourne Victory (Football)
New Zealand's 10 Best Young Cricketers After The Summer Of 2023/24 (Cricket)
Blackcaps vs Pakistan T20 Series Debrief (Cricket)
Breaking Down The Blackcaps 2024 T20 World Cup Squad (Cricket)
2024 Kiwi County Tour: Nathan Smith Update & Will Young vs Tom Bruce/Will Williams (Cricket)
Previewing The Tall Blacks’ 2024 Olympic Qualifying Campaign (Basketball)
Scotty’s Word
Here is a first draft of our Tamaki Makaurau vs Aotearoa rugby league squads…
Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (City Newton) | Taine Tuaupiki (Waikato)
Ronald Mulitalo (Otara) | Jamayne Isaako (Christchurch)
Matthew Timoko (Otahuhu) | Rocco Berry (Greytown)
Roger Tuivasa-Sheck (Otara) | Joseph Manu (Waikato)
Deine Mariner (Marist) | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Waikato)
Kieran Foran (Ellerslie) | Dylan Brown (Whangarei)
Shaun Johnson (Hibiscus Coast) | Jahrome Hughes (Wellington)
Moses Leota (Mt Albert) | James Fisher-Harris (Northland)
Brandon Smith (Waiheke) | Jeremy Marshall-King (BOP)
Jesse Bromwich (Manurewa) | Joseph Tapine (Wellington)
Conelly Lemuelu (Otara) | Briton Nikora (BOP)
Sitili Tupouniua (Marist) | Jordan Riki (Christchurch)
Isaiah Papali'i (Te Atatu) | Tohu Harris (Hawke's Bay)
Bench
Keano Kini (Northcote) | Nelson Asofa-Solomona (Wellington)
Josh Aloiai (Glenora) | Griffin Neame (Greymouth)
Naufahu Whyte (Bay Roskill) | Leo Thompson (Hawke's Bay)
Bunty Afoa (Pt Chev) | Xavier Willison (Waikato)
Josiah Karapani is a late inclusion into the Broncos team for tonight's game vs Sea Eagles, making him the fourth Kiwi-NRL youngster to make their debut this season...
Jacob Laban: Te Aroha
Zyon Maiu'u: Te Atatu
Solomon Alaimalo: Hornby
Josiah Karapani: East Tamaki RU
Karapani started in the 2020 NZ Warriors SG Ball team and left for Rabbitohs when the pandemic destroyed all NZW junior teams. There was plenty of buzz about Karapani at Rabbitohs but he made a strange departure ahead of this season and, given the Rabbitohs dramas, that was a good move for Karapani.
Named at centre to make his NRL debut, Karapani has played wing in all of his Queensland Cup games this year for Burleigh. Perhaps Deine Mariner could switch to centre to put Karapani on the wing, either way both were centres who have ticked off the centre/wing versatility that ensures more opportunities.
Josiah Karapani in Q Cup this season
8 games, 6 tries, 6 linebreaks 3.5 tackle breaks/game, 153m/game, 84.6% tackling
A few NZ Warriors nuggets...
Despite Rocco Berry dropping out of the NRL team, NZW still have a funky St Patrick's Silverstream angle. Toby Crosby has earned a NSW Cup call up and Maui Winitana-Patelesio has been named on the Jersey Flegg bench after playing SG Ball earlier in the season.
Lots of dummy half depth has seen a few changes in positions. Paul Roache is now playing in the halves for NSW Cup with youngsters Makaia Tafua and Jacob Auloa getting the dummy half reps. Like Roache, Etuate Fukofuka was a dummy half last year and he is now a small forward in Jersey Flegg with Jeriko Talisau and Winitana-Patelesio covering hooker.
SG Ball lads now playing up the grades
NSW Cup: Sio Kali, Motu Pasikala, Jacob Auloa, Kayliss Fatialofa
Jersey Flegg: Nganatatafu Vake, Rapael Sio, Rodney Tuipulotu-Vea, Jeriko Talisau, Alvin Chong Nee, Augustino Filipo, Francis Tuimauga, Maui Winitana-Patelesio
Jacinta Savage and Sophie Oldershaw have retired from cricket. Savage and Oldershaw struggled to earn consistent selection for Canterbury and Otago respectively, lacking runs and wickets last summer…
Jacinta Savage
HBJ Shield: 181 runs @ 20.11avg/61sr | 9ov, 1w @ 49avg/5.44rpo
Super Smash: 6 runs @ 3avg/75sr | 1ov, 1w @ 12avg/12rpo
Sophie Oldershaw
HBJ Shield: 20ov @ 4.9rpo
Super Smash: 9ov, 3w @ 21.33avg/7.11rpo
The funkiest angle here though is that Savage had a White Ferns development contract in 2020 and in typical White Ferns development styles; those contracts led to no development.
2020 Development Contracts
Bella Armstrong: 1xT20I, meh for Auckland
Skye Bowden: Fabulous youngster but yet to elevate
Rebecca Burns: 2xT20I, shunned from WF
Eden Carson: Up and up
Caitlin Gurrey: Shunned from WF
Fran Jonas: Up and up
Jacinta Savage: Retired
Jess Watkin: Shunned from WF
2021 Development Contracts
Kate Anderson: 4xT20I, played vs Pakistan and dropped for England series
Bella Armstrong: 1xT20I, meh for Auckland
Sarah Asmussen: Holding steady for Canterbury, meh for NZ-A last summer
Claudia Green: Holding steady for CD, yet to leap up to WF
Fran Jonas: Up and up
Nensi Patel: Holding steady for ND, solid for NZ-A last summer
Molly Penfold: Up and up but yet to dominate domestic, let alone settle into WF role
Gabby Sullivan: Holding steady for Canterbury
Armstrong earned back to back development contracts and then a White Ferns debut last year, followed by her worst domestic summer...
HBJ Shield: 52 runs @ 10.4avg/57sr
Super Smash: 16 runs @ 4avg/76sr
As White Ferns prepare for a busy winter overseas, the same observations of that development contract phase still apply...
Dubious talent identification. Domestic cricket performances mean very little. Nothing to suggest players improve in White Ferns environment. Players are not put in positions to succeed. Favourites continue to be selected without performing. White Ferns is not a reflection of the best female cricketers in Aotearoa.
Carlos Ulberg is the best UFC fighter from City Kickboxing right now. Ulberg has won six fights in a row and is the most active CKB lad since the start of 2023. Kevin Jousset is the only other CKB fighter with consecutive wins in this period and he is from France but trains with CKB.
City Kickboxing in UFC since start of 2023
Carlos Ulberg: W, W, W
Kevin Jousset: W, W (France)
Israel Adesanya: W, L
Dan Hooker: W
Kai Kara-France: L
Shane Young: L, L
Blood Diamond: L
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
The Wellington Phoenix’s semi-final decider against Melbourne Victory tomorrow night is officially sold out. Not a seat left in the house. Not sure what the specific number will get to because that depends on corporate seats and whatnot but it’s going to be in excess of 32,000 people and quite possibly the biggest home crowd the club has ever garnered.
Welly Nix Record Home Attendances
32,792 vs Newcastle Jets (W 3-1) Sky Stadium on 7 March 2010
24,278 vs Perth Glory (D 1-1) Sky Stadium on 21 February 2010
24,105 vs Western United FC (W 3-0) Sky Stadium, on 22 May 2021
23,648 vs Melbourne Victory (D 1-1) Eden Park on 15 February 2019
22,233 vs Perth Glory (D 2-2) Eden Park on 30 May 2021
The first two of those were finals games. The third was the first game in Wellington post-covid, ending a stretch of 433 days without a match in Aotearoa. The fourth and fifth were both games in Auckland where the bigger population and relative scarcity (up until very soon) always seems to draw a big turnout. Note also that the Phoenix have not lost a home game in which they’ve stacked 22k+ into the stadium... although the Wellingtonian football community will have some bad memories of the Football Ferns losing 1-0 to the Philippines in front of a 32k sellout at the World Cup last year.
Point being it’s going to be massive. Ninety minutes away from a potential grand final. Unless there’s an extra thirty plus maybe even penalties on top of that – the possibility of a penalty shootout is comforting knowing how good Alex Paulsen is against spot kicks but also terrifying knowing that the Nix would have to find five confident takers themselves. Victory won a shootout to get here in the first place. Nah, best hope it doesn’t go that far... the Nix have managed 90+5th minute result-altering goals against Melbourne Victory in each of the other two home games they’ve played against them this year so they tend to find a goal eventually.
I’ve written a preview of this tie which is still mostly relevant. I’ve also written a reaction piece to the first leg. And as much as I’d like to offer further preview notes I really just don’t know what else there is to say. I’m trying to keep a clear head and not take too many preconceived ideas into the match. Instead, here are some questions that I’ll be pondering along the way...
How many minutes will Oskar Zawada be available for?
Will Arzani/Brimmer/Folami start for the Victory or remain as impact subs?
Who would take the penalties for the Nix if it goes that far (beyond Zawada and Rufer)?
Will the Phoenix be able to unlock the Victory defence through set pieces?
Are we going to break the club’s biggest ever home crowd record?
Can the Nix get Ben Old (and that left side of the attack in general) more involved this time?
Finn Surman: Over or under 3.5 blocked shots from him, personally?
The Victory have had more red cards than any other team this season and that parochial home crowd is going to be loud and influential... this isn’t a question but only because I don’t want to tempt fate so I’m simply going to hint at a meaning that you can surely comprehend.
The Nix love to defend but have had trouble getting out of their own half in phases of all four mettings with MVC so which team wins the possession battle?
Knighthood for Alex Rufer, when?
One other idea... across four games against the Welly Nix, the Melbourne Victory have attempted 78 shots for just 5.8 Expected Goals. That’s 0.074 xG per shot. Incredibly, 35 of those shots have been blocked. From those 78 shots and 5.8 xG, the Victory have scored twice in 360 minutes. The Wellington Phoenix, on the other hand, have taken 27 shots for 3.26 xG (0.121 xG/shot) and have scored three times.
There’s a hectic finish to the English Premier League gonna happen this weekend but the real ones will be focusing on an even closer battle in the Scottish Women’s Premier League instead. That’s where Victoria Esson’s Rangers will be trying to keep their domestic treble hopes alive and add to a glamorous few weeks for kiwi footballers winning trophies. Marko Stamenic got the Serbian league title, with a cup final to follow. Callum McCowatt won the Danish Cup. Esson’s already won the Scottish League Cup a few months back and may soon add an SWPL medal to that (not to mention the Scottish Cup final that they’ve qualified for).
In order to do so, they’re going to need Celtic to drop points though. The two teams played a few weeks ago in the Cup semis and Rangers won 2-0 with Esson keeping a cleanie. They met again straight afterwards in the SWPL and Esson got another cleanie – she’s suddenly having a great run of games at a time when Rangers are competing for trophies on multiple fronts... almost makes it worth how little she played at other times during the season (all in all, the manager has balanced that nicely between Esson and Scottish international Jenna Fife). But it was 0-0 in that SWPL match. And RFC’s lack of a winning goal is probably going to cost them the championship.
Both teams played midweek. Both teams shot out to 3-0 leads. Celtic ended up beating Hearts 3-1. Rangers conceded a couple late ones but held on for a 3-2 victory vs Hibernian. Rangers play Partick Thistle on the final day while Celtic face Hibs (who hopefully got some confidence from those two late goals). Rangers and Celtic are level on points but Rangers won’t make up a goal difference gap of 16 goals in one day so it’s all about whether they can better that Celtic result. 1.10am on Monday is when both games kickoff. Then a week later Rangers face Hearts in the Cup final.
By the way, Vic Esson has made the last two SWPL Team of the Weeks. Fantastic form. With Anna Leat playing WSL games in England at the moment we’ve probably never had two goalkeepers of this level at one time before.
Speaking of Football Fern depth... Macey Fraser has linked up with the Utah Royals. The visa stuff must be all sorted. Spanish defender Ana Tejada, who was signed at the same time, has also just arrived. The coach has said there’ll be “a process of getting them acclimatised” so don’t expect anything this week... but with Utah tracking last they’ll be keen on the reinforcements soon enough. Milly Clegg made the bench for the first time in Racing Louisville’s loss to Washington last week so she’s on debut watch. Exciting times. Also here’s an Emma Pijnenburg yarn (it’ll help if you understand Dutch, though a few of the interviewees do speak in English)...
NZ NBL Best Defensive Ratings (Overall)
Lachlan Olbrich (Canterbury) – 89.2
Cam Gliddon (Auckland) – 93.5
Sam Timmins (Franklin) – 93.5
Jarrell Brantley (Franklin) – 94.8
Rob Loe (Auckland) – 96.2
Tom Vodanovich (Auckland) – 97.0
Tyrell Harrison (Manawatu) – 98.0
Corey Webster (Auckland) – 98.5
Hyrum Harris (Wellington) – 98.7
Izayah Le’Afa (Wellington) – 100.4
These numbers are from the ever-magnificent SpatialJam.com, and are limited to those who’ve played at least 100 minutes. Normally I like to do these stat grabs focusing only on the kiwi players but this one I’ve included imports because of the context it provides when you realise that seven of the top ten defensive ratings are from kiwi players anyway.
Defensive Ratings are a team stat based on when those players are on the floor so for example having four Tuatara players there is not a coincidence – they’re sharing minutes and benefiting equally from that. But over the course of a season it does offer some tidy evidence as to which players are having that kinda impact. Meanwhile all the top players for Usage Rate are imports until you get to Corey Webster at eighth and then Rob Loe at thirteenth.
Shooting Splits for the NBL Players in the Tall Blacks Squad
Flynn Cameron: 49% FG | 44% 3PT | 88% FT
Hyrum Harris: 57% FG | 15% 3PT | 84% FT
Tyrell Harrison: 61% FG | N/A 3PT | 80% FT
Izayah Le’Afa: 39% FG | 35% 3PT | 76% FT
Jordan Ngatai: 44% FG | 34% 3PT | 76% FT
Ethan Rusbatch: 41% FG | 39% 3PT | 100% FT
Reuben Te Rangi: 45% FG | 31% 3PT | 66% FT
Tom Vodanovich: 57% FG | 44% 3PT | 61% FT
Corey Webster: 47% FG | 38% 3PT | 81% FT
Finally, there’s a new Earth Tongue vid and they simply do not miss. Not with the tunes, not with the accompanying visuals...