Negligible Validity
Negligible Validity
Blackcaps ODI priorities, Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker, South Island Rugby League, Football Ferns squad predictions & more
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How The Aotearoa Warriors Spine May Operate In 2023 (Rugby League)
How The Aotearoa Warriors Forward Pack May Operate In 2023 (Rugby League)
What To Expect From Aotearoa Warriors Coach Andrew Webster (Rugby League)
Where Are We At With The Wellington Phoenix Women These Days? (Football)
Football Ferns vs USA: Record Crowds & Brewing Hype (Football)
Flying Kiwis – January 24 (Football)
Kiwi Steve in the NBA #5: A Legacy of Clutch Buckets (Basketball)
2023 Women's T20 World Cup: White Ferns Squad Breakdown (Cricket)
2022/23 Women's Super Smash: Update #6 (Ciao White Ferns) (Cricket)
Joseph Parker vs Jack Massey: Easy Mahi, No Need To Panic (Boxing)
Scotty’s Word
In this week's Variety Show podcast, my comrade highlighted some baffling kiwi media coverage around Joseph Parker. Football Ferns vs USWNT also produced some baffling coverage and somewhere among these two sits the Blackcaps ODI series loss to India.
Folks can learn about the importance of a fixture, series or tour through the actions of the team they support. Most sporting competitions have too many games as they are all thirsty to please broadcasters and teams must prioritize. Through their actions, Blackcaps informed folks that this summer tour of India was not a high priority. Blackcaps are clearly not desperate to win ODIs and T20Is in India, instead opting for a fabulous development opportunity for their 2nd-3rd 11 cricketers.
Last week I rolled out my 1st 11 of kiwi cricketers. Some of them played in ODIs against India and didn't perform. I've got Finn Allen and Henry Nicholls as 2nd 11 cricketers. Blair Tickner and Jacob Duffy are competing for a 2nd 11 spot, leaving the other as a 3rd 11 cricketer along with Henry Shipley. Trent Boult's status flows down to impact all seamers and as noted in the 1st 11 yarn, Lockie Ferguson sits in the void between 1st-2nd 11s depending on Boult's status.
What happens when the 'B' squad of seamers are gathering development experience in India? India scores lots and lots of runs. Ish Sodhi didn't play a game of that ODI series, leaving Mitchell Santner, Michael Bracewell and Daryl Mitchell as the only 1st 11 lads who bowled in that series.
Keep this in mind if you care about the T20Is vs India. Shipley, Ben Lister, and Michael Rippon are 3rd 11 cricketers. Mark Chapman and Dane Cleaver feel like 3rd 11 cricketers, but a generous spirit has them as 2nd 11 cricketers. The further Blackcaps move away from 1st 11 players, their chances of winning decrease.
Hence the reaction to Blackcaps losses in India has been interesting to observe. Especially considering that we have a recent example of Blackcaps rolling out a strong ODI group for a series win in Pakistan... only a few weeks ago!
The best Blackcaps in Pakistan ODIs were Kane Williamson and Tim Southee. Both are chillin' in Aotearoa at the moment.
Those Pakistan ODIs were part of the World Cup Super League and the Tests were part of the World Test Championship. This tour of India holds none of that context, hence it's a development exercise. Among the kerfuffle of Blackcaps losses in India, you may have heard that Blackcaps dropped down the ICC ODI rankings. Meanwhile in the WC Super League, Blackcaps are 1st.
There is more WC SL cricket to be played. England play three ODIs against South Africa and Bangladesh that could shake up the ladder, then Blackcaps host Sri Lanka in games they should win.
Blackcaps won an ODI series in Pakistan that boosted their WC SL campaign, yet a random tour of India is used as headline bait. Blackcaps are 1st in WC SL, yet the ICC rankings are used as headline bait. One tour featured the best kiwi cricketers, yet poor 'development' performances get the dramatic treatment.
Blackcaps told us where their priorities sat with this Pakistan/India portion of the summer. This also applies to selection where Finn Allen is clearly being given time and space to mature into his role. Allen batted in 10 ODIs last year with a record of 39.5avg/94.39sr and his first eight ODIs were overseas, mainly against weaker nations before one game against Australia.
Allen played in ODIs against India in Aotearoa late last year, then his development escalated with ODIs in Pakistan and India. Touring Pakistan/India is only matched by touring Australia as the most difficult challenges for young kiwi batters. Many young kiwi batters have been exposed in India or Australia over the years and this experience is useful in sparking improvements.
Ponder Allen's role as well. Allen is there to whack boundaries and snatch momentum in favour of Aotearoa. This is obviously useful in T20I cricket and is becoming more important in ODI cricket - India scored 340+ runs in the two games they batted first vs NZ. Allen's is a volatile role and yet his first 13 innings of ODI batting saw him score 20+ runs in 10 innings, 30+ runs in six innings.
Consecutive ducks in India is the first time Allen has registered consecutive scores below 10 runs in ODIs. Funnily enough, this was his first time playing international cricket in India.
Allen had scores of 29, 1 and 25 in Pakistan. Both of his 20-odd knocks featured 100+ strike-rates, then the Kane Williamson safety net was sitting at #3. Here we see the same recipe that works for Blackcaps in T20I cricket as Allen goes bonkers at the start and Williamson is ready to rebuild if Allen doesn't fire. Don't hate on Williamson the T20I batter - Blackcaps are consistently good at T20I cricket because of Williamson.
Williamson wasn't playing in India and Nicholls played the #3 role. Nicholls didn't play in Pakistan - laying out Blackcaps priorities. Nicholls has one score over 40 in his last 10 games of cricket and this includes a ho-hum Ford Trophy stint of 21.75avg/82sr - usually Nicholls is dominating for Canterbury with Tom Latham and Matt Henry.
Nicholls didn't carry any run-scoring foundations into this Indian tour and struggled. Despite Blackcaps success in Pakistan, there weren't many runs from Latham, Daryl Mitchell or Michael Bracewell. Glenn Phillips scored runs in Pakistan and then joined Nicholls, Allen, Latham and Mitchell as kiwi batters who didn't perform in India. Regardless of what their Blackcaps World Cup status is, all of these batters will benefit from this experience.
Hearty kiwi cricket fans should zone in on Super Smash and Ford Trophy where intriguing Blackcaps such as Will Young, Neil Wagner, Ajaz Patel, Kyle Jamieson and Tom Blundell are playing. Hmm, maybe Williamson and Southee lace up for Northern at some point?
I'm also enjoying the youngsters who are impacting domestic games at the moment. Rachin Ravindra and Dean Foxcroft are doing Super Smash MVP things from their respective teams. Will O'Rourke is cut from the same tall-bloke cloth as Jamieson/Shipley and he's playing all three formats for Canterbury. Zak Foulkes has 7w @ 10.57avg/6.16rpo in his first three games of Super Smash with Canterbury. Foulkes also scored 32 runs @ 123sr batting #6 in a supporting role to Cam Fletcher for Canterbury's most recent win.
Foulkes and Katene Clarke are my favourite youngsters in Super Smash. Northern's K-Clarke duo is extremely funky with Ka-Clarke playing a hyper aggressive opening role and Kristian Clarke bowling in all three formats. Every domestic team has layers of funk and as Super Smash is the most visible format, this is where folks will learn the most about kiwi cricket.
Best non-White Ferns in Super Smash as of Friday morning...
Most Runs
Natalie Dodd: 2nd - 272 runs @ 45.33avg/111.47sr
Rebecca Burns: 4th - 228 runs @ 32.57avg/123.24sr
Amy Satterthwaite: 5th - 224 runs @ 74.66avg/113.7sr
Kate Ebrahim: 6th - 216 runs @ 43.2avg/104.34sr
Kate Anderson: 7th - 216 runs @ 36avg/102.36sr
Saachi Shahri: 8th - 186 runs @ 23.25avg/101sr
Bella Armstrong: 9th - 165 runs @ 27.5avg/135.24sr
Sam Barriball: 10th - 137 runs @ 19.57avg/92.56sr
Most Wickets
Gabby Sullivan: 1st - 12w @ 13.16avg/6.03rpo
Leigh Kasperek: 2nd - 11w @ 13.63avg/6rpo
Missy Banks: 3rd - 11w @ 18.54avg/7.84rpo
Nicole Baird: 4th - 10w @ 9avg/5rpo
Amy Satterthwaite: 6th - 9w @ 16.55avg/5.51rpo
Emma Black: 7th - 9w @ 16.66avg/6.52rpo
Kate Ebrahim: 8th - 9w @ 17.77avg/6.4rpo
Sarah Asmussen: 9th - 9w @ 17.88avg/6.7rpo
Amie Hucker: 10th - 9w @ 21.33avg/6.85rpo
Suzie Bates (1st) and Amelia Kerr (3rd) are the only White Ferns in top-10 for runs, Jess Kerr (5th) is the only WF in top-10 for wickets. The crux of this idea serves as a concerning note in the White Ferns T20 World Cup squad breakdown while also throwing up a positive twist. With WF playing in Super Smash, the best players are solid domestic troopers or youngsters on the rise. Even with WF and the Under 19 crew away, women's Super Smash is still really fun- possibly to be boosted with overseas imports.
Makes me wonder why TVNZ will broadcast some Super Smash games yet rarely showcase Super Smash in their evening news. Apparently men's golf and Premier League football featuring no kiwis is more important.
Also makes me wonder why Senz do radio segments about NFL quarterbacks and the significance of the FA Cup, while ignoring kiwi sports.
Sidenote: Players are fighting for their rights in CBA negotiations with NRL. Men and women are working together for the best situation, which involves a far better system for women in NRLW. Women's sport will enjoy fabulous growth in the next decade and sports will be competing for talent. Last winter I highlighted how Katelyn Vaha'akolo and Mele Hufanga played league and union on weekends. Hufanga was a standout at the World Cup and she will have every NRLW team wanting her talent, yet NRL is neglecting NRLW rights. Cricket comes to mind as a leader in this regard with the best opportunity for young women (contracts, U19 tours etc). A multi-sport athlete will have professional opportunities in multiple sports, it's up to that sport to make themselves the most attractive option.
Wests Tigers announced their junior squads this week and gave Oliver Lawry a special mention. Lawry may be from West Coast or Christchurch having played 1st 15 rugby for St Thomas of Canterbury College, league for Halswell Hornets and West Coast. Lawry was named in the Balmain SG Ball squad...
"New Zealand recruit, Oliver Lawry also took part in a handful of NRL training sessions over pre-season, and is a big and skillful half."
Tigers have their SG Ball (U19) and Harold Matthews (U17) juniors split between Balmain and Western Suburbs. While they have just the one Tigers Jersey Flegg (U21) team, they are one of a few NRL teams with double the junior representative base as other teams. Warriors only have an SG Ball team right now, while Tigers have five squads between U17-U21s. That's not a negative note about Warriors because I'm enjoying their mahi, just laying out the vista of murky NRL junior stuff.
Lawry played as a half for league and #10 for 1st 15. His highlights package features a strong kicking game and nifty running, both of which were on display in the South Island Under 20s team early in 2022. Lawry was named in the Junior Crusaders squad and as starting halfback in the NZRL U18 NZ Schools team last year.
Lawry joins Taani Fangupo (Panthers U21s) as players from the 2022 South Island U20s team now in NRL systems. The NZRL U20s competition will start again in a few weeks.
Don't have Lawry as a confirmed West Coast/Greymouth product, but it's fun to add that Griffin Neame is a hearty Greymouth geezer.
Lawry joins Jack Sandford as Canterbury 1st 15 lads who are now in NRL systems. Sandford was fullback for Christchurch Boys High School before moving to Canberra where he won SG Ball with Sione Moala (Manurewa - Bulldogs) in 2021. Sandford played NSW Cup for Raiders last year and is currently training with their NRL squad.
Four halves played in the NZRL U18 Schools vs Clubs game last year. Lawry was joined by William Piliu (St Paul's/Mt Albert) in the Schools team, the Clubs team had Phranklyn Mano-Le-Mamea (De La Salle) and Afaese Fa'avae (Rongotai/Wellington). Don't have any info on Fa'avae, while Piliu and Mano-Le-Mamea are in the Warriors SG Ball squad.
Tanner Stowers-Smith was named in the Junior Crusaders squad last year via St Bede's 1st 15 and also made the NZRL Clubs team through Halswell/South Island. Stowers-Smith is in the Warriors SG Ball squad and could sneak up to NSW Cup if he impresses.
I also caught a whisper that Felix Fa'atili could pop up in the Sharks SG Ball squad. Felix and Caius, along with Jordan Riki went to St Thomas of Canterbury College. Felix joined Caius at Wynnum in Brisbane which appeared to be somewhat linked to Broncos and Caius could emerge with Broncos in the coming seasons. Caius played 17 games of U21s with Wynnum last year, Felix started in U18s and then played 16 games in U21s.
That's a whole lot of South Island rugby league yarn.
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
We’re entering the final few days of the January transfer window in European football which means that the deals should be ramping up about now and the Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker shall be amongst it. Here’s a scoop to start you off with today...
The anticipation all along had been that Matty Garbett would find himself a loan out for the rest of the season in order to build up some first team experience. He has played senior footy for Falkenbergs back in his Sweden days but for Torino so far it’s all been youth stuff outside of one Coppa Italia appearance and some preseason friendlies. Heaps of unused sub days thanks to those extended Serie A benches but yeah a loan made the most sense in the short term.
However the rumours were mostly about Serie C clubs and it was getting to be a surprise that nothing had happened to this point. S’pose we now know why, that very active agency of his were searching further abroad. NAC Breda are a second tier club in the Netherlands – meaning he’ll be playing at the same level as fellow Ole Academy graduate Ryan Thomas. Thommo’s PEC Zwolle are at least looking at automatic promotion if not the Eerste Divisie title. NAC Breda are further back but still very much in the playoff hunt. Garbett is one of multiple new signings they’ve made this month, as well as hiring a new coach.
Just gotta wait and see that it actually happens first, though. As we know Garbett’s agency has a long history of linking him with transfers of... shall we say, negligible validity.
Moving on and Ria Percival signed a new contract with Tottenham this week which will keep her at the club until the end of the 2024-25 season (when she’ll be 35 years of age). This is fantastic news because as you no doubt know she’s still recovering from the ACL injury she suffered with the Fernies back in April. Recently got back into running and non-contract training and has been hard at work in the gym but still a fair while away from proper footballing activities.
So for Spurs to be giving her a new contract at 33yo before she’s even recovered from a serious knee injury... votes of confidence do not come much stronger than that. But the feeling is justified. Percival was a key player for Spurs last season as they logged their best ever WSL finish. This term she’s been absent and their midfield has been a mess and they’re lingering dangerously close to the relegation zone. There’s no doubt that they’ll be desperate to get her back before the season is through... and the Football Ferns wouldn’t mind it either from their most capped player given the small matter of that home World Cup.
Chris Wood was in the stands for Nottingham Forest yesterday as they lost 3-0 in the home leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Manchester United. Annoyingly, Wood is cup-tied after featuring prominently for Newcastle United (who beat Southampton 1-0 in the first leg of the other semi) earlier in the competition. What’s more is that it’s an FA Cup weekend coming up and Nottm Forest are already out of that cup, dropped 4-1 by Blackpool in a bit of a turn-up. So after making his debut in the 1-1 draw with Bournemouth he’ll have to wait two full weeks for appearance two.
That might not be the worst thing though. They rushed him into the Bournemouth game despite having not yet had a single training session with his new club... and it did show as the combinations were nowhere to be seen. Steve Cooper defended that decision as a “no-brainer” and whilst it didn’t work out too well on the day it should benefit everybody down the line by accelerating that settling-in process. I thought this was a very interesting quote from the gaffer about how he planned to integrate Wood into the team...
Steve Cooper: “For us, it was a no-brainer. We’re really pleased he’s got the first game out of the way, because he can’t play now for a couple of weeks, with being cup-tied. He’s got a couple of weeks where we can really get to work with him, talk about our identity and the role we want him to play. I didn’t want to overload him with information in 24 hours. I know he’s experienced. We thought he’d just play a little bit of excitement and adrenaline. He’s really excited to be here - and we’re really excited to have him - so we just wanted him to be just enthused to go and play. He’s seen the away supporters and the noise they make as well. It’s a special club to play for, and we’re all lucky to play and work here, so it’s good we’ve got him.”
The biggest and most dramatic transfer of the week was Abby Erceg getting traded to Racing Louisville. Already wrote about that in Flying Kiwis so the recapped version is that she had intended to stay to North Carolina Courage for the remainder of her career but the club had other plans which appeared to blind-sight even Abby as they flipped her and Carson Pickett for Emily Fox.
Again, all the intricacies were discussed in Flying Kiwis so peek there for the full yarn. Suffice it to say that this feels a lot like another NZ stalwart who’s been doing that high-level underappreciated mahi for the better part of the last decade in the USA: Steven Adams. When the OKC Thunder traded him, it wasn’t because they stopped rating him. It was because they were pivoting into a rebuilding phase and he no longer matched their time-line. Similar thing with Erceg at NCC... with the main difference being that the Thunder can actually be trusted to embark on a rebuild properly. The Courage have been a shambles off the pitch for the last two years and frankly as much as she was settled and embedded there... it doesn’t feel like a bad thing whatsoever for Erceg to be freed up.
She and Pickett are all-in on the Louisville experience, they’ve made that much clear already. There those two can provide the backbone of the defensive line for a young franchise seeking to make the playoffs for the first time in their third year of existence. Will be funky to see if they make Erceg the captain now. Weirdly the team named four co-captains last season (bet the refs hated that), with Gemma Bonner, Emily Fox, Jess McDonald, and Nadia Nadim getting those honours. Bonner has left for Liverpool and Fox was traded for Erceg while Nadim did her ACL back in September so yeah gotta think Erceg will at least be on the long list.
RL head coach Kim Björkegren: “Emily Fox is one of the best outside backs to the world, so of course I will miss her. Also she was really popular in the group. So it was not an easy decision. But we also knew that she had one year left on her contract, and that means that in 5 months she has the chance chance to sign for a new club. So, this was probably the last chance for us to get something from that deal. And when North Carolina offered us two (very) good players with Carson Pickett and Abby Erceg, it was a difficult decision but in another way also an easy decision to make because I think that kind of experience is exactly what we need on this young squad.”
One more for ya here... Myer Bevan has re-signed with Canadian club Cavalry FC. Back at it on a two year deal (with a club option for a third). Bevan scored 6 goals in 14 games for the CPL club last year. Injuries prevented him from expanding upon that tally but he clearly did enough for them to leap at the idea of having him back. Happy days and hopefully plenty more goals.
I’ve been writing a bit about Milly Clegg lately, and ended up editing out a few chunks to keep the thing on message... one of those chunks was a bit about the Wellington Phoenix Women’s success at developing international players.
Grace Jale was the only capped SheNixer when they kicked off their first season and she only had four caps dating back to the 2018 Oceania Nations Cup. Hadn’t played for three years. She’s now a regular Ferns selection and possibly even a first choice starter (although she no longer plays for the Nix).
The first active Phoenix player to get a Ferns debut was Kate Taylor against Norway last June. Since then she’s been joined by Mackenzie Barry and Grace Wisnewski. Three players who’d never played professionally prior to their Nix gigs and are now full internationals all with a shot at making the World Cup squad (Barry feels like the best bet, especially as she can provide cover across the entire backline). And of course existing Fernies like Betsy Hassett, Paige Satchell, and Emma Rolston have popped up to bolster the team’s international representation.
Lily Alfeld has been called up to several squads without being capped (most but not all since she joined the Nix). Alyssa Whinham and Brianna Edwards have been called up once each without playing. Marisa van der Meer and Michaela Robertson were part of the wider Olympics squad before they joined the Phoenix (initially named as travelling reserves but then FIFA expanded the squads to include those players too). They along with the likes of Michaela Foster and Milly Clegg surely aren’t too far away. Might not happen before the World Cup but would bet decent money that at least four of those players, if not all of them, earn caps within the subsequent World Cup cycle (for which Jitka Klimková will still be the coach).
Of course they did raid the previous U20 World Cup wave for their inaugural squad so, like, you could claim they cheated a bit there. Milly Clegg, Zoe McMeeken, Charlotte Lancaster, Te Reremoana Walker, Alyssa Whinham, Kate Taylor, Ava Pritchard, Brianna Edwards, Grace Wisnewski, and Marisa van der Meer were all a part of that U20 squad.
But then that’s not the point. The point is that the Phoenix exist to provide a stepping stone to the professional realms for those exact kinda players (ideally bolstered out by some more experienced players so that they can be a little more successful than they were last season). Plus they won on the weekend so that was cool too.
A post-USA tour Football Ferns World Cup squad prediction...
GK: Vic Esson, Anna Leat, Erin Nayler
DEF: Ali Riley, CJ Bott, Claudia Bunge, Katie Bowen, Meikayla Moore, Rebekah Stott, Elizabeth Anton, Mackenzie Barry
MID: Ria Percival, Betsy Hassett, Malia Steinmetz, Daisy Cleverley
FWD: Olivia Chance, Hannah Wilkinson, Paige Satchell, Grace Jale, Gabi Rennie, Jacqui Hand, Indiah-Paige Riley, Ava Collins
Tell ya what, it gets very tricky for the last few places – particularly with a return to 23-player squads at major tournaments. The goalkeepers are settled so no worries there. Liz Anton is the backup LB at this stage so she makes it ahead of specialists like Ally Green and Ashleigh Ward. And while she did a commendable job against the Americans it’s still hard to find room for Anna Green in the squad – although if she can get a run of games for Sydney FC that could yet change. Chuck in Mack Barry for versatility and Rebekah Stott for experience.
Only four midfielders so can’t quite fit Wisnewski in there. There’s just no room with Chance and Bowen and Stott all capable of covering those spots. Annalie Longo will be here if she can recover from injury in time. Sorta wanna see it before I can believe it though - Ria Percival still isn’t back playing and her ACL injury happened five months before Longo’s. We’re six months out from the World Cup. The maths ain’t kind.
Finally the strikers and wingers... wouldn’t be at all shocked if JK picks an extra defender and only seven forwards but I prefer the two players for every position idea (with a bonus goalie). Therefore Ava Collins has snuck in as player #23 and a lot of this does have to do with that USA series. There’s still time for another forward to emerge and take her spot but Collins’ workrate and pressing ability do really suit this team’s style of play and if she’s not particularly creative, at least not at this early stage of her career, well... who is?
This team doesn’t have an abundance of attacking threats so you might as well pick the one who defends the best – meaning that Emma Rolston would be an unlucky absentee for the second World Cup in a row. Collins started ahead of Rolston in the Ferns vs USA games and Rolston’s recurring injuries simply haven’t allowed her to get on a roll, so to speak, for the Phoenix yet (and she’s currently suspended). That could still happen and this pick could change. But that’s where it’s at right now.