Murky Estuary Waters
Murky Estuary Waters
Blackcaps appearances, Lydia Ko is sizzling, new Olli Harder & Dan Shamir gigs, Flying Kiwis transfers, plus lessons in winning from GS Warriors & Canterbury rugby
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Podcast
Reading Menu
Rolling Through This Football Ferns Squad for the Norway & Wales Friendlies (Football)
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Tonga, Samoa & Cook Islands Breakdown (NRL)
27fm Weekly Playlist: June 20 (Music)
Turns Out Trent Boult Is The Best Number 11 In Test Cricket (Cricket)
Michael Bracewell Is The Latest Slow-Cooked Blackcaps Test Cricketer (Cricket)
The Differing Fates of Junior Fa, Hemi Ahio & David Nyika at Kambosos vs Haney (Boxing)
Scotty’s Word
Lydia Ko continues to sizzle as a dominant LPGA Tour force, finishing 4th at the Meijer LPGA Classic. Ko has now registered four top-five finishes in her last five tournaments and has three consecutive top-five finishes. Ko finished 4th behind Jennifer Kupcho, Leona Maguire and Nelly Korda which provides lovely context around Ko's consistency. Here are their last five results each...
Ko: 3T, 12T, 5th, 4T, 4th
Kupcho: 16T, 17T, 18T, 40T, 1st
Maguire: Cut, Cut, 8T, Cut, 2T
Korda: 4T, 20T, 15T, 8T, 2T
Here are Ko's Meijer Classic stats by round...
Fairways Hit
7/13 - 8/13 - 11/13 - 8/13
Putts per Round
32 - 31 - 30 - 29
Greens in Regulation
14/18 - 17/18 - 18/18 - 15/18
Sand Saves
0/1 - 0/0 - 1/1 - 1/1
Learning with Golden State Warriors and Canterbury rugby. At some stage during the Brooklyn Nets evolution under kiwi Sean Marks, I pondered the importance of defence in winning championships. Nets were blowing teams away through their attacking prowess in the NBA and this force works directly against the 'defence wins championships' tale that we know so well. Nets fell short against the best defensive NBA team of last season (Milwaukee Bucks) and this is now reinforced by the presence of the two best defensive teams in the NBA lining up for NBA Finals in Boston Celtics and GS Warriors.
Celtics were one of, if not the best defensive team up until their Warriors match up. Then Warriors got busy in the finals with fabulous individual defence along with team principles and effort. Warriors won the championship and their NBA dynasty is as much about their defensive mana as it is about the flashy attack.
Canterbury won Super Rugby and finished the regular season with the fewest points conceded (268). Along with Auckland (284) they were the only teams to concede less than 300 points and Canterbury then restricted Auckland to just 7 points in the final. This is also evident in NRL where Panthers and Cowboys are the only teams to concede less than 200 points so far.
Panthers are immense defensively. Outside backs to most of the mahi to get down field, Nathan Cleary kicks long and accurately, then the forwards rip in to win tackles. Repeat that set after set. Cowboys are one of the hottest NRL teams after a summer in which they made defensive mahi a priority. Storm are slightly ahead of Cowboys on the ladder (224 points conceded) and their reputation is built around defence - to the point that their attacking flair is underrated.
Defence still seems really important to winning championships. Scoring points helps teams win games each week but to win championships and consistently compete in finals, defence must be a priority. Canterbury have a similar reputation to Storm in that they are always among the best teams of their respective competitions, with a guiding force being their defensive energy and schemes.
There is another intriguing aspect to this Warriors NBA championship as it's been widely reported that they have the most expensive roster in the NBA. Both NBA and NRL operate under salary caps but they are vastly different. Going over the NRL salary cap means drama and as there is no transparency in NRL salary cap numbers, it's all murky estuary waters. Going over the NBA salary cap results in the owner/s paying a luxury tax, that escalates every year the team is over the salary cap.
If the GS Warriors were in the NBA, they would be charged with 'rorting the cap'. Instead their owner/s is comfortable paying more and more money because it is an investment in winning. GS Warriors have factors such as a new arena offering immense earning potential to counter their increased luxury tax.
There are many NBA owners who do not want to pay extra money, thus their teams lose. Being over the NBA salary cap means the owner is investing in winning and as NBA teams keep increasing in value (owners can make at least 10x their investment), it's weird how some NBA owners hold their teams back due to being cheap.
NRL teams can't go over the salary cap, but they can invest in recruitment and pathways. This is the classic Kiwi-NRL Roosters salary cap sombrero idea as everyone thinks Roosters have tricky ways of juggling their salary cap, when the reality is their owners invest their money in flying kids from Aotearoa to Sydney for weekend fixtures (Joseph Manu) or setting up academies in Aotearoa.
I found this deep in an Aussie yarn that provides further Roosters context…
Storm have similar recruitment prowess but show nifty salary cap management in how they get the most out of players - like GS Warriors who elevated Andrew Wiggins' play and balance their high roster value with cheaper lads down the roster. Storm have always had to pay their best players, who are also among the best players in the league. Storm also snare cheap players from other clubs and either plug them into their NRL team, or for younger lads they develop them into NRL players.
In the NRL, the cheapest players are those on their first or second contracts. Most clubs can't get these players contributing every week but Storm have a top-tier development system that ensures these players are ready. Balance expensive players with the cheapest pocket of players.
Canterbury rugby has a culture under Scott Robertson where the best players don't want to leave and if they do, there is someone else ready to pop in who is probably cheaper. Other Super Rugby teams might have 'sexier' forward packs with bigger names, yet Canterbury still has the best forward pack. Lads like George Bower, Oliver Jager and Tom Christie play their roles perfectly as lesser known forwards, while Cullen Grace falls short on flash but is consistently one of Canterbury’s best.
Bryn Hall isn't the best halfback in Aotearoa, but he does the Canterbury job like Gary Payton II did the GS Warriors job and Nick Meaney does the Storm job. Everything about Canterbury rugby oozes GS Warriors/Melbourne Storm vibes and these organisations are the best in highly competitive sporting leagues, by quite a margin.
Defence is always a priority. Culture is always important and while this helps create a winning environment, culture allows the most efficient use of salary caps/finding value.
There is a mainstream media yarn about Tom Latham's lack of runs overseas and against quality opponents. Latham's stats tell that story but the only stat that really matters is how Latham averages 31.07 as skipper, while averaging 44.27 under Kane Williamson's captaincy. As Williamson has missed a bunch of cricket in the past 12 months, Latham has spent more time as captain and this is clearly impacting his batting mahi.
International rugby league is back! I've covered the relevant squads on the blokes side and a Kiwi Ferns squad breakdown is still on the hoist. The thought that sticks with me is how lovely the Aotearoa vs Tonga fixtures will be for local rugby league fans as the sport craves connection between the stars and community.
Auckland is the Polynesian capital of the world and Tonga's connection to community starts in Auckland. Many of the best NRL players are in this Aotearoa Kiwis squad and for local fans/children to see them up close, connecting with them is extremely important.
It's still intriguing to see how folks view NZ Warriors in this regard. Of course they stink - they have no connection to their community let alone home field advantage. People love to whinge about NZ Warriors though and that's why negative Warriors yarns get so much traffic. We have experienced this but at some point there is too much repetition in trying to churn out Warriors yarns just for traffic and clicks.
Allow NZ Warriors mahi to inform you about other person. Folks A) don’t care and are more interested in other stuff, B) are hopeful and optimistic, or C) they dwell in negativity.
Wildcard’s Notebook
Quick Blackcaps thoughts first off, the lads begin the third Test of their England series on Thursday night with the hope being that they’ll actually be able to keep the pressure going for four straight innings and win a match. Avoid the sweep and get some more World Test Championship points on the board. Hopefully also they’ll have a fit and healthy squad to choose from but damn that hasn’t been the case yet.
Nor for a while. This WTC title defence hasn’t gone too flash... in fact it’s been a disaster. The reigning champs have only won 2 out of 8 matches (1 draw & 5 defeats) so far and any hope of making the final has pretty much slipped away already. Heaps more could be said on this but the point I wanna chuck out there for now is about injuries and unavailabilities. The Blackcaps arguably have more top tier depth now than ever before but no matter how deep the talent pool is... when you’re missing guys like Kane Williamson or Trent Boult or whoever there is simply no replacement. Nobody else is coming in and averaging a sustained career 52+ with the bat like Kane, you know?
Here are the XIs for the five WTC cycle defeats...
Second Test vs India (Wankede, Dec 3-6 2021):
Latham, Young, Mitchell, Taylor, Nicholls, Blundell, Ravindra, Jamieson, Southee, Somerville, Patel
First Test vs Bangladesh (Mt Maunganui, Jan 1-5 2022):
Latham, Young, Conway, Taylor, Nicholls, Blundell, Ravindra, Jamieson, Southee, Wagner, Boult
Second Test vs South Africa (Christchurch, Feb 25-Mar 1 2022):
Latham, Young, Conway, Nicholls, Mitchell, Blundell, De Grandhomme, Jamieson, Southee, Wagner, Henry
First Test vs England (Lords, Jun 2-5 2022):
Latham, Young, Williamson, Conway, Mitchell, Blundell, De Grandhomme, Jamieson, Southee, Patel, Boult
Second Test vs England (Trent Bridge, Jun 10-14 2022):
Latham, Young, Conway, Nicholls, Mitchell, Blundell, Bracewell, Jamieson, Southee, Henry, Boult
This is all over a six month period, it’s not a long time in Test cricket. Extend it over all eight of the WTC cycle games and this is how the appearances shape up...
8 Matches: Tom Latham, Will Young, Tom Blundell, Kyle Jamieson, Tim Southee
7 Matches: Henry Nicholls
6 Matches: Devon Conway, Daryl Mitchell
4 Matches: Neil Wagner, Trent Boult, Ross Taylor
3 Matches: Matt Henry, Rachin Ravindra, Ajaz Patel, Colin de Grandhomme
2 Matches: Kane Williamson, Will Somerville
1 Match: Michael Bracewell
In conclusion: the more that Kane Williamson and Trent Boult play, the better. Ideally a bit of Neil Wagner too – can’t possibly imagine how they can justify leaving him out for a third match in a row after how the first two ended up.
If you’re wondering what Olli Harder’s gotten up to since leaving as West Ham coach, wonder no longer. Despite rumours linking him to coaching gigs in America, the 36yo kiwi instead swiftly took up a role at the top club in Norway right now: SK Brann. Returning to a league in which he arguably made his name as a top tier coach with Klepp... but he isn’t coaching Brann. Nope, he’s the club’s first ever sporting director.
Olli Harder: “I want to help build a solid foundation for this large club and I'm really looking forward to getting started. I want to help lead the club further in a positive direction, to help Brann to become the best club in Scandinavia.”
Having said that he will soon need to hire a new coach as Alexander Straus just last week was poached away by Bayern Munich. Straus hung around long enough for a 5-0 cup win over Arna-Bjørnar and the club currently leads the Toppserien by two points with a game in hand over Rosenborg. Vålerenga are also still in the hunt, although their chances took a big blow as they lost 2-0 to Rosenborg this past weekend. Ally Green came off the bench for a second VIF league appearance
Curious one there as Harder did a great job with the Hammers over a year and a half and his leaving there was the cause of plenty of speculation. Given how many players also followed him out the door (including Anna Leat) it seems like it was club dysfunction that was the issue, perhaps Harder felt he’d done as much as he could there and wanted to leave on a high rather than experiencing the impending comedown. Who knows.
But a move into a directorship role is certainly a pivot. Best of luck to him. Neither of the Norwegian qualifiers made the UCL group stage last season. Rosenborg went out in the first phase of qualifying, Vålerenga in the second and final phase. Brann have qualified for the upcoming qualifiers as 2021 Norwegian champs so Harder will be plotting ways to get them that step further and into the final-16 group stage.
Also if you were wondering what Dan Shamir’s gotten up to since leaving the Breakers...
That’s not a bad gig, to be honest. It’s not a head coaching gig but after a 32-60 record with the Breakers over three seasons maybe that wasn’t an option. Still, he’s much closer to home which was the priority reason in his leaving New Zealand and he’s going to be part of a team that wins a whole lot more than he’s been used to lately.
Olympia Milano are the most successful club in Italian basketball history and Ettore Messina is a legend of Euro hoops coaching – who spent several years between 2014-2019 as an assistant to Gregg Popovich at the San Antonio Spurs. Messina has won four EuroLeague championships with Virtus Bologna and CSKA Moscow. His Olympia Milano team were semi-finalists this past season.
Interestingly, one of Milano’s top players is Nicolo Melli who was a teammate of Steven Adams’ with the New Orleans Pelicans for a while there.
Maybe Coach Shamir can put in a good word for a few of his former players. Finn Delany is out of contract with the Breakers and expected to try and spread his wings in Europe. Not heard anything fresh on that situation for a while though. Also Tai Webster played EuroLeague with Zalgiris last term but it wasn’t a great season for the club and Webster has recently been released at the conclusion of his contract. We’ll see where he ends up next. He’ll have NBL offers for sure but could also certainly bag another good gig in Europe.
Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker (European Winter Window):
Daisy Cleverley –> HB Køge (Danish Elitedivisionen)
George Stanger –> Alloa Athletic (Scottish League One)
Jamie Searle –> Barnsley (English League One)
Liberato Cacace –> Empoli (Italian Serie A)
Stefan Marinovic –> Hapoel Tel Aviv (Israeli Premier League)
Only early days there, the windows in most leagues don’t technically even open until the start of July. We’ve got Stefan Marinovic getting a tidy move across Israel from the last placed team to the fifth placed team. Good step up there. George Stanger reunited with an old Hamilton coach to keep him in the Scottish third tier (after also suffering a relegation). We’ve had Jamie Searle join Barnsley in the past few days – another club who’ve been relegated but no dramas for Searle as he moves into a first team picture having been an U23 player for both Aston Villa and (more regularly) Swansea City.
Daisy Cleverley’s move to HB Køge is a huge one. The top club in Denmark for her first professional gig after a strong college career in America. That’s a great move. And then going against all the relegation chat of the previous paragraph the fact that Empoli did not get relegated means that Libby Cacace’s initial loan move from Sint Truiden to Empoli has now automatically become a permanent one.
We’re talking about a reported €3 million transfer fee there too. Not exactly loose change. STVV had paid something around €1.2mill for Cacace in the first place so a pretty useful profit margin for them. Some of that cash should filter back down to the Wellington Phoenix also. Not a much but some.
The January transfer went ballistic so you’d think we’d ease off a bit for this window, right? Only so many kiwi pros to go around, right? Eh not so fast. As it stands we’ve got a heap of players looking for new gigs which may not lead to big money moves the way that Chris Wood, Joe Bell, and Libby Cacace offered in January but there’s still all sorts of potential.
Some notable current Free Agent kiwi footballers: Winston Reid, Anna Leat, Ryan Thomas, Meikayla Moore, Andre De Jong, Vic Esson, Rosie White, Joey Champness, Katie Rood & Vic Esson. Not to mention a heap of folks still awaiting their first pro gigs. Or the various A-League contingent, headlined by Kosta Barbarouses on the male side and... well, pretty much everybody on the women’s side where one-year contracts are the norm.
It's possible I'm only noticing this because of the dip in form, but it seems recently that the Blackcaps have really struggled to read the pitch pre-game. Mt Maunganui, Lord's and Trent bridge have all seen combinations of the bowling attack that in hindsight (which is 20/20 obviously) haven't been suited to conditions. There may be factors behind the scenes, and there's an element of luck in this, but it seems to be at least a factor