Intuitive Ideas
White Ferns vs India, Blackcaps Notebook, Footy Ferns at the SheBelieves Cup, Joe Bell's Brøndby Debut & more
Podcast
Reacting to Football Ferns and a good hour of Blackcaps/Ford Trophy chat on Monday’s Patreon Podcast:
Reading Menu
2021/22 Ford Trophy: Central Stay Undefeated, All Eyes On Auckland (Cricket)
2021/22 Ford Trophy: Undefeated Central, Twilight Taylor And More (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
White Ferns vs India…
Aotearoa’s cricketing wahine have looked lovely in three wins over India, wrapping up the series with two more games to play. In covering the WF I’m super aware of my negativity as my WF yarns tend to come with a hearty dose of reality while Aotearoa’s media sit more in PR mode. I’ve felt insecure with my WF yarns as the distinct difference in our coverage and the mainstream’s coverage leads me to feel like my insights are wrong. When you’re highlighting issues on an island by yourself, it can mess with your intuitive ideas.
Thus now is not the time to do a big ol’ yarn about some of the below notes. I’m letting this simmer and will balance optimism/reality prior to the World Cup as these wins could genuinely spark confidence and mana. There is also a clear trend of WF winning games that don’t matter.
From July 1st 2018 to end of 2021, the WF were 4-22 in ODI cricket. Three of these wins came in the third/final game of a series after losing the first two games. The fourth win was the third game against England last year, after losing the first two and then losing the last two games.
2018 vs England: Loss (142 runs), Loss (123 runs), Win (4 wickets).
2019 vs India: Loss (9 wickets), Loss (8 wickets), Win (8 wickets).
Early 2021 vs England: Loss (8 wickets), Loss (7 wickets), Win (7 wickets).
Mid 2021 vs England: Loss (30 runs), Loss (13 runs), Win ( 3 wickets), Loss (3 wickets), Loss (203 runs).
This same vibe was evident early last year when a Aotearoa 11 competed well against England in two warm up games. England only won the first game by 20 runs and the Aotearoa 11 won the second game. Claudia Green and Brooke Halliday earned WF promotions from this series, while various players scored plenty of runs and wickets. Everything was lovely.
England then won the first two ODIs by hefty margins and Aotearoa won the third game. England then won all three T20I games. Six games all up, five losses and four of these losses were margins of at least 5 wickets.
On top of this trend, we can’t overlook how niggly it is to try and play professional sports fresh out of lock up. South Africa showed that vs Blackcaps and India have a distinct advantage over other World Cup teams as they get a full five game series ahead of the World Cup, while the other teams go through their lock up process. Indian superstar Smriti Mandhana averages 41.70 in ODI cricket, departed lock up after this series had started and is yet to play in this series.
This isn’t just a case of WF winning games that don’t matter, or a general ‘warm up’ vibe as the World Cup is the focus. Factor in the lock up process and India playing without Mandhana (who like all World Cup players must adapt to Aotearoa) for a complex boil up of factors that have me … curious about WF performances moving forward.
It would be rude of me to throw this all up in a proper WF yarn while they are winning three games in a row. They might sweep India and I’ll have to balance the vibes. There are clear trends evident here that provide ample reason to chill on the hype. One more thing…
It’s nice to see the likes of Lauren Down, Frances Mackay, Hannah Rowe, Maddy Green and Rosemary Mair perform nicely. This fits the narrative put out by WF PR about needing team-wide performances to back up the best players, while also covering up some low key important notes.
Sophie Devine’s ODI batting is not as good as her T20/T20I batting. Devine has 46 runs @ 15.33avg in this series and after averaging 30+ for seven consecutive years, Devine is now averaging 25 or below for the third year in a row. Devine’s last 50+ score was October 2020 and she has two 50+ scores since start of 2019.
Amelia Kerr might be Aotearoa’s best batter - at the expense of her bowling. The Kerr sisters are my favourite Aotearoa wahine cricket thing and this isn’t about Amelia, this is about the selection tactics that left Leigh Kasperek out of the squad. I reckon there is a clear move to rely on Kerr as the frontline spinner with support from Mackay, Amy Satterthwaite and Fran Jonas.
Kerr has 3w @ 52.33avg/5.60rpo in this series. Kerr averaged below 22 in each of her first three years of ODI cricket and this has steadily worsened starting in 2019; 29.87avg, 33.85avg, 40.83avg, 52.33avg. In this period Kerr’s batting has swiftly developed and despite Kerr’s excellence, there seems to be a lot of responsibility on a 21-year-old who took a mindful break from international cricket.
Hence the Kasperek/Kerr combo is fantastic as Kerr operates as the pure talent she is, with Kasperek there to ease the bowling burden. The more runs Kerr scores, the better it will appear but tap into what is happening with her leggies. Again, this is not about Amelia Kerr - this is about her role and squad selection.
Blackcaps Mixer…
Blackcaps depth gets plenty of Niche Cache chat and below I’ve laid out this depth. All these blokes have played for Aotearoa already apart from highlighted blokes (*) and these lads all fit my ‘plug and play’ mould. This isn’t about development, it’s about Blackcaps depth that can help win a Test today.
Batters: Hamish Rutherford, Mark Chapman, Glenn Phillips, Martin Guptill, Rachin Ravindra (Spinner), Tom Bruce, Finn Allen, Michael Bracewell*.
Wicket-Keepers: Cameron Fletcher*, Dane Cleaver*, Tim Seifert.
Seamers: Blair Tickner, Doug Bracewell, Lockie Ferguson, Scott Kuggeleijn, Jacob Duffy, Ben Sears.
Spinners: Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Ajaz Patel, Will Somerville.
Plenty of options available there.
NRL Trials Wash Up…
Good feature from Rabbitohs about Otara’s Josiah Karapani here…
Cowboys coach Todd Payten made special mention of Griffin Neame (Greymouth) and Daejarn Asi (Christchurch)…
NZ Warriors thing…
Pay attention to everything but Reece Walsh. The Aussie media only focus on Walsh and I suggest that this attention is better used to focus on NZ Warriors juniors from Aotearoa to help you understand legit Warriors matters; Kepu twins, Ali Leiataua, Rocco Berry, Viliami Vailea, Taniela Otukolo, Junior Ratuva etc.
Walsh is the polish as well, so you’re better off learning how everything else works (playing style and development pipelines) as the Walsh stuff is easy to see, feel and understand. Then you will also pay more attention to guys like Garrett Smith (from Knights), Adam Cook (from Raiders) and Jayden Corrigan (from Northern Pride) who have all taken up summer training opportunities with the Warriors.
Most Warriors fans know very little about their own juniors or legit recruitment moves. All of which is evident in their trials, just try look past the flashy stuff and challenge yourself to learn about other Warriors matters. Then you might feel better, more positive and respect their mahi through obscure times.
Wildcard’s Notebook
Football Ferns at the SheBelieves Cup
As someone who watches a lot of football, I can honestly tell ya I’ve never seen a player score three own goals in one match. Let alone in one half. Let alone as a perfect hat-trick (left foot, right foot, head). Or, I hadn’t ever seen that until Meikayla Moore did so for the Football Ferns against the USA this morning.
She then got subbed off in the 40th minute, a merciful exit from a game which had unfolded quite literally like a nightmare for her. Piney made the point in commentary that they could have waited until half-time to make the sub and I sorta tended towards that feeling too at the time – though let’s be honest thinking back on this game it’s not the early sub that Moore’s gonna remember worst.
Unfortunately that performance is going to get a bit of social media traction (it was her 50th international cap too, one more cruel twist) but Meikayla Moore is an excellent defender who has made a habit of rising to the occasion already in her career. Fully expect her to bounce back swiftly and should her Liverpool team avoid a calamitous collapse down the stretch of their season then she should be playing WSL later this year.
There’s always blame to be dished out when goals are conceded. From MM’s perspective, the second one was a bit of a fluke as an attacking header hit her in the face and randomly went bottom corner. Good indication that the fates were in a foul mood But the first two were shanked clearances that displayed the same fault: she was too flat-footed when the crosses were coming in. If she’s stepping into those clearances then they end up in the stands for throw-ins. Defending them on her heels means that she’s not in control and what happened can happen. Believe me when I say that Moore’s a strong enough character to recognise that and learn from this.
Folks also ain’t wrong when they ask why so many dangerous crosses were coming in at all. The USA team not only have amazing players but those players are also amazing athletes. Even with a second string eleven that was true. Their slowest forward was probably faster than our fastest defender and any time they could get the ball wide or in transition they looked like they could score.
The Ferns are building towards something good. There were great spells in both this game and the Iceland game where they held possession nicely with positive intent. But there was also a harsh lesson on display against USA that a more ambitious passing game does have risk to its reward. You have to be sharp with your technique because cheeky turnovers will be punished. Especially with attacking fullbacks who can get caught out of position in those instances.
I’ll write more about this She Believes Cup thing after the third game (against Czech Republic). Would have preferred to do game recaps but the timing of the matches has been peskily unkind to my schedule. Honestly, not a heap of new info on display from these two games anyway. Still working through some of the same riddles under new coach Jitka Klimkova which will take much more time and many more fixtures to get right. Gotta recognise the shift and give them that space for now, trusting that they’ll be ready by the World Cup next year.
In the meantime, a couple of ideas that have been simmering. One is that Anna Leat is the Ferns’ number one keeping option but I already thought that before this tour so nothing’s changed. Another is that I reckon the best midfield combination sees Rebekah Stott at CDM with Ria Percival allowed more of a free roaming box to box role like she plays with Spurs where she can lead the press and make those late runs into the area. Probably with Katie Bowen as the other midfielder.
A further idea is that these two games have been by far the best that Paige Satchell has looked as a Football Fern. Always had that pace and directness but now there’s better purpose to her play. Still got reservations about her final ball but for sure it’s improving. She was the most impressive in the Iceland game while Claudia Bunge gets that nod for the USA game. Both currently benefitting heaps from A-League exposure early in their pro careers - it’s not the strongest or most lucrative competition out there but it’s a fantastic launching pad for Aussie players and now a few more kiwis are finally getting on that buzz.
Then also I think there needs to be at least some acknowledgment of the ring rust in this squad. Thirteen players have started across these two games. Erin Nayler has barely played for over a year. She’s currently preparing for her new season in Sweden. Betsy Hassett is also in Scandinavian preseason mode. USA-based Abby Erceg, Katie Bowen, and Ali Riley all only got back into training within the last few weeks (and two of them are at new clubs). Daisy Cleverley and CJ Bott don’t even have clubs at the moment. Meikayla Moore and Paige Satchell aren’t every-match starters for their teams. Really, that only leaves Liv Chance, Hannah Wilkinson, Claudia Bunge, and Ria Percival who you could say came into this tour in above-average form.
Doubt that’s a coincidence when you look at how poorly they started against Iceland, conceding in the first minute and looking extremely shaky for the first ten or so. They settled nicely after that but weren’t able to break down a solid defensive team. Work in progress. Can’t expect them to go from zero to a hundred that quickly. But that game should have been a draw had they not been so sleepy early on.
Looking forward to seeing how they do against Czech Republic on Thursday - so far they’ve finished both previous tours under Jitka Klimkova on a relative high note.
Bellinho
It was a warm welcome to the Danish Superliga for Joe Zen Robert Bell. Back from a few training games in Portugal and immediately into the starting eleven for Brøndby for the first game back after the winter break. Away to Nordsjælland. A game that they were expected to win. Bellinho debuting at the base of a five-man midfield. And Brøndby delivering a comfortable enough victory, true to expectations.
Brøndby had the better of the first half in snowy conditions but had to wait until the second half to finally see that net ripple. Carl Björk should have scored in the 48th with a diving header open at the back stick but no worries because Anis Slimani was in the right place to turn one home on 56’. Initially the goal was ruled out for offside but they overturned it on VAR. Ten mins later Slimani slid one through for Andreas Bruus running in from the right wing and he slammed it under the keeper for 2-0. That was how it finished. Catch some highlights here.
Joe Bell slotted easily into the midfield role vacated by Morten Frendrup who has signed for Genoa in Italy. Striker Carl Björk was the other debutant, staring for BIF in place of the club’s top scorer Mikael Uhre who has moved to Philadelphia Union in MLS. They also lost a number of other key players from last season’s championship squad in the summer so there is a bit of pressure on Bell (and Björk) to fill those boots if Brøndby are going to hang in the title challenge. That quest took a boost when FC Midtjylland (fresh off a 1-0 Europa Conference League win over PAOK a few days earlier) were dropped 2-0 at home by AaB. That means that FC København go top after winning 2-0 over OB. Only three points between the three of them now.
To be honest though, it was a quiet debut for Bell. He was solid but unspectacularly so. He did spray a couple of passes in the first half but settled in nicely after that and overall proved a sturdy and reliable presence in midfield, although the deeper role did mean there wasn’t much sight of his attacking abilities. Here, have a pass chart...
Bill Tuiloma, Undercover Set Piece Menace
All three of those goals scored within the last year. One in a preseason friendly this week. One in an international game a few months back. One in the MLS 11 months ago. A preseason friendly doesn’t really count but still the trend is clear. Also, if the ball’s being crossed into the area instead he’s pretty mean on the end of those too, just sayin’.