Impending Movement
Impending Movement
Michael Bracewell injury ramifications, All Whites vs Sweden preview, White Ferns spinners, NBL kiwi leaders, Wellington Phoenix women signings & more
Podcast
Subscribe: Apple | Spotify | Youtube
Reading Menu
Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Style and Depth Update (Rugby League)
All Whites vs Sweden/Qatar: Squad Yarns & Preview (Football)
Flying Kiwis – June 13 (Football)
Getting Up To Date With NZ Breakers Offseason Activities Ahead Of NBL24 (Basketball)
2023 Kiwi County Tour: Henry Shipley & Tom Latham Appear (Cricket)
Forecasting a Football Ferns FIFA World Cup Squad (Football)
27fm Weekly Playlist: June 12 (Music)
Scotty’s Word
Time to update Blackcaps ODI World Cup matters with Michael Bracewell ruled out due to injury. Bracewell was being brewed as a role-player for Blackcaps for the World Cup in India where his spin bowling and batting would offer balance to the 1st 11.
The rise of Bracewell has been interesting to observe. Regardless of how folks feel about his promotion as an all-format Blackcaps, selectors and decision-makers were obviously working towards this World Cup with his selection. Bracewell's maturity and pedigree has seen him develop as he tastes higher levels of cricket, now commanding opportunities in IPL and T20 Blast where he performed admirably... then got injured.
Looking back through Bracewell's career stats in First-Class, List-A and T20 cricket, there wasn't much there to suggest that he would become a 1st 11 World Cup option in 2023. Good seasons in each format were followed by poor seasons with numerous examples since his debut in 2010/11.
It was the 2021/22 Super Smash that blasted Bracewell into his Blackcaps zone (478 runs @ 79.6avg/149sr) and that was his first Super Smash averaging over 40.
Yet in the summer prior to his Test debut in 2022, Bracewell scored 190 runs @ 19avg in Plunket Shield. That's how he earned that Test debut.
A different way to slice this is comparing Bracewell to Canterbury veteran Cole McConchie who may now be in contention for the World Cup squad. These two are essentially the same cricketer. Across all formats McConchie has had run-scoring peaks greater than Bracewell as well as the same dips, he has flashed his bowling ability, and he has captained a winning team.
The same case for Bracewell's slow domestic grind then swift Blackcaps rise can be made for McConchie. If McConchie had got the same opportunities as Bracewell, he may have done as well or better than Bracewell. Folks from Canterbury may think that McConchie is better than Bracewell and that's a fair argument to make.
Below are the batting/bowling averages for these lads across the formats along with Rachin Ravindra and Mitchell Santner for context. Bracewell has a better T20 record (including IPL/Blast etc) but McConchie's longform stuff is notably better than Bracewell.
Michael Bracewell
FC: 32.28avg/44.82avg
LA: 34avg/38.21avg
T20: 29.67avg (132sr) / 17.22avg (7.31rpo)
Cole McConchie
FC: 37.79avg/37.8avg
LA: 26.98avg/49.55avg
T20: 21.7avg (123.6sr) / 32avg (7.42rpo)
Mitchell Santner
FC: 30.88avg/44.12avg
LA: 28.44avg/35.36avg
T20: 23.81avg (132sr)/ 24.35avg (7rpo)
Rachin Ravindra
FC: 38.77avg/50.96avg
LA: 31.28avg/56.84avg
T20: 15.52avg (121sr) / 26.94avg (7.45rpo)
How do Blackcaps fill the Bracewell hole? McConchie or Ravindra could be selected in the squad as spin cover. I lean in favour of McConchie based on his experience and maturity. All of Ravindra's Blackcaps opportunities have been down the order but he is a top-order batter for Wellington, their best batter last season. Ravindra’s true value will be evident when when he gets top-order opportunities.
McConchie is best suited to this opportunity as a role-player who probably won't play. Then again, Blackcaps already have two spinners in Santner and Ish Sodhi. Combine that with plenty of seamers competing for selection and there is a chance that Blackcaps simply roll with two spinners in Santner/Sodhi for this World Cup.
In previous email newsletters, I shared my 1st 11 with a somewhat radical combo of three spinners (Santner, Sodhi, Bracewell) and three seamers (Boult, Southee, Henry). I view the all-round ability of Santner and Bracewell favourably, hence I liked this bowling unit. Bracewell's absence allows me to move towards a more mundane team make up.
My initial squad had Will Young outside the 1st 11 and I'm now adding him to the batting line up and bumping all the bowlers down a spot...
Finn Allen, Devon Conway, Daryl Mitchell, Will Young, Tom Latham, Glenn Phillips
Mitchell Santner, Matt Henry, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee, Trent Boult
Alongside Young in spots 12-15 for my initial squad were Tom Blundell, Lockie Ferguson, and Kyle Jamieson. Jimmy Neesham, Mark Chapman, Cole McConchie, Henry Nicholls, Adam Milne, Rachin Ravindra, and Henry Shipley are now battling for one extra squad spot (assuming a squad of 15). Ideally Kane Williamson is available and he takes that last spot.
There is enough versatility in the batters selected to cover top-order holes either by putting Blundell in the top-order, or having him bat lower to bump Latham or Phillips up the order. This makes it tricky to select Nicholls, while Neesham and Chapman are contenders as powerful hitters. With Jamieson and Ferguson already in my squad, there is little need for another seamer which is where McConchie or Ravindra join the mix with their spin bowling.
I'd roll with Neesham but everyone will have different selections.
With Williamson and Bracewell's injuries, Blackcaps World Cup optimism is decreasing. Even without Williamson, I like the talent in this batting unit now that Conway is one of the best batters in the world and as noted in today's Kiwi County Tour, Mitchell is sneaky excellent. Allen and Phillips are x-factor freaks. Young and Latham are solid batters who can grind out an innings if required.
I reckon my 1st 11 can make the semi-finals for the fifth World Cup in a row. Depending on how many Aotearoa vitamins I've had, I might be optimistic enough to hope for a third final in a row with that team.
Support The Niche Cache
Priority: Subscribe on Youtube
Join the Patreon whanau. Monthly donation and an extra podcast every week.
Make a sporadic donation through Buy Me A Coffee.
Paid Substack subscription - what extra content would you like as weekly bonus?
Tell a friend.
White Ferns announced their squad to tour Sri Lanka and this is all about the spinners. White Ferns spinners are better than WF seamers and spin should be celebrated as a strength of wahine cricket in Aotearoa.
Amelia Kerr
ODI: 28.46avg/4.45rpo
T20I: 21.43avg/5.81rpo
Eden Carson
ODI: 10.33avg/3.87rpo
T20I: 11.64avg/5.5rpo
Fran Jonas
ODI: 44.5avg/4.62rpo
T20I: 16.28avg/4.57rpo
Conditions will make touring Sri Lanka niggly. WF can easily account for Sri Lanka in Aotearoa, but scoring runs in Sri Lanka won't be easy for a WF batting unit that under-performs when it matters most. Apart from Lea Tahuhu, WF seamers are a bit lacklustre and this amplifies the spin intrigue for their Sri Lanka excursion.
Three funky indicators for Aotearoa rugby league in 2023...
1) NRL crowds in Aotearoa. NZ Warriors get 20,000+ crowds in Auckland and their trips to Christchurch, Wellington, Napier have also featured hefty crowds.
2) There are as many wahine preparing for their first NRLW season as there are returning players.
3) South Island explosion. This week Canberra Raiders announced that they will send an Under 18 team to Aotearoa to play games against Canterbury and South Island teams in July.
Kiwi-NRL youngsters are coming from all regions across Aotearoa but kiwis know that Canterbury dwells in sporting excellence. Lots of hard mahi from Canterbury and Southern Zone Rugby League has enhanced rugby league in the region, now offering a Kiwi-NRL pipeline that will also produce NRLW talent. Canberra Raiders taking a development tour to the South Island is the latest checkpoint in rugby league's growth down south.
Musical jam...
Wildcard’s Notebook
The All Whites play Sweden on Saturday at 5am in the first of two games this international window. Interim coach Darren Bazeley’s without Chris Wood, Ryan Thomas, and Sarpreet Singh but otherwise has pretty much a top strength side (within reason), something also true of Sweden though with a European Championships qualifier to follow against Austria we’ll probably see their second eleven in our game. No worries there, might make it a funky clash.
Here’s the starting team I’d most like to see...
Oli Sail
Tim Payne, Michael Boxall, Bill Tuiloma, Libby Cacace
Marko Stamenic, Joe Bell
Eli Just, Marco Rojas, Matt Garbett
Max Mata
That’s Rojas at the ten and Garbett out wide, a pretty fluid attacking set around hold-up man Mata. Lots of movement and hopefully some decent possession then with the likes of Greive, Waine, McCowatt and a few others to chuck on for the last half hour to change the pace and get more direct. A quality bench is a massive asset in international footy where those raw elements become more important without the opportunity to really hit the training paddock week after week together.
The fear is that we get stuck with a Baze Ball back five instead and spend the whole time defending... but I dunno. Bazeley’s not a silly man. He’s seen the back four shape work much better against China and at the U20 World Cup. Also these things aren’t set in stone. A back five can still be a very attacking formation when used that way with fitting players. The All Whites are absolutely more suited to do that than the U20s were: Cacace and Callan Elliot can give them genuine attacking outlets from wide as wingbacks must do. Nando Pijnaker can just slide into the CB trio. We’ll see how it goes.
A number of these All Whites dudes could be moving clubs soon. Max Crocombe will be for sure after news that he’s rejected the contract offer on the table from Grimsby Town. Once we’d passed a month without word, that was always likely to be the outcome. Nik Tzanev was also linked with a move to Blackburn Rovers recently, while Oli Sail’s Perth Glory stint becomes official at the end of the month. Same deal with Clayton Lewis to Macarthur. Tommy Smith will be released by Colchester at the same time and Marco Rojas might be a free agent before all of them – with reports saying he’ll return to Chile after the break but only to sign the documents for his early release. Callan Elliot is an impending ALM free agent too, don’t forget.
Matt Garbett won’t be moving but his transfer to NAC Breda will become official at the turn of the month (aka when the transfer window opens in Europe). Marko Stamenic has long since announce his switch to Red Star Belgrade and that’ll also become real in two weeks. That’s a lot of movement, right?
It could become more if guys like Callum McCowatt and Elijah Just get offers, while Francis De Vries will surely be hoping to leverage his international recall into another chance at the pro level. In fact, he’ll be back in Sweden where he was playing prior to his injury so he could even go knocking on a few doors with his CV. Potentially half this team will be playing somewhere new next season... and that’s only the blokes. Could be a flurry of Football Ferns packing their bags too in the wake of that World Cup spotlight too.
NBL Kiwi Stat Leaders (min 5 games)
Points Per Game
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 20.7
Tai Wynyard (Canterbury Rams) – 19.1
Reuben Te Rangi (Auckland Tuatara) – 18.6
Derone Raukawa (Hawke’s Bay Hawks) – 17.6
Tom Vodanovich (Wellington Saints) – 16.8
Rebounds Per Game
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 10.9
Tai Wynyard (Canterbury Rams) – 10.7
Sam Timmins (Otago Nuggets) – 9.4
Hyrum Harris (Hawke’s Bay Hawks) – 9.0
Sam Dempster (Nelson Giants) – 8.9
Assists Per Game
Taylor Britt (Canterbury Rams) – 4.7
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 4.5
Quinn Clinton (Canterbury Rams) – 4.0
Alex McNaught (Nelson Giants) – 4.0
Hyrum Harris (Hawke’s Bay Hawks) – 3.9
Three Point Percentage (min 1 attempt per game)
Rangimarie Dougall-Mita (Wellington Saints) – 52.4%
Kaia Isaac (Canterbury Rams) – 47.4%
Richard Rodger (Taranaki Airs) – 45.5%
Francis Mulvihill (Wellington Saints) – 44.4%
Tohi Smith-Milner (Wellington Saints) – 44.4%
Minutes Per Game
Jordan Ngatai (Hawke’s Bay Hawks) – 37.2
Ethan Rusbatch (Hawke’s Bay Hawks) – 34.8
Reuben Te Rangi (Auckland Tuatara) – 33.1
Isaac Davidson (Franklin Bulls) – 32.9
Sam Dempster (Nelson Giants) – 32.5
The Wellington Phoenix women have begun building their squad for year three. Already under contract were Alyssa Whinham and Chloe Knott. Alongside them, the first two bits of business have been bringing back a couple of locals: Emma Main and Michaela Robertson. Two solid, commendable decisions right there.
Robertson joined last season as the first actual Wellingtonian to play for the team. And although she hadn’t played ALW before, as someone a little older than their typical first season signings she was able to make a swift adjustment. That speed and sharpness, despite her small size, always a welcome boost to the team. Only issue with Mickey Robertson was the lack of goals. That’s not been a problem for her at lower levels but in the ALW only 1 goal and 0 assists in 948 minutes was definitely hitting the unders.
In contrast, Emma Main only played the last two games off the bench as an injury replacement player but had an assist in each. Two goal contributions in 65 minutes was the quickest ratio in the entire ALW for anyone with multiple goals+assists. Yeah, very small sample size there. Fair enough. However for a team that didn’t often have the cutting edge to match the overall performance that’s not something to be ignored. Main did train with the team a lot last year, also working with the reserve team. She’s well known to new coach Paul Temple and fully worthy of the pro deal. Main will mostly be used as a winger/forward though she can also operate in midfield.
Plenty more work to be done from there... although it may not be fast work. The prevalence of one-year contracts means lots of flexibility and there are a few Nix players pushing for World Cup selection who may soon find themselves with chunkier offers from Australia and especially overseas. That’s okay though, that’s what a club like the Wellington Phoenix should be aiming for.
Good news incoming with official confirmation that Aston Villa goalkeeper Hannah Hampton will be leaving the club at the conclusion of her contract in a few weeks. Hampton, a regular England call-up and part of their Euros winning squad, has been linked with a bunch of rival WSL clubs with champions Chelsea seeming to be the top candidates.
If you’re wondering what’s so interesting about that, well, Anna Leat was her backup. Villa will have to sign another goalie and that could go yet prove to be a spoiling factor here... but with Hampton leaving, Leat has a genuine chance to be a starting goalkeeper in the Women’s Super League next season. She’s definitely put a strong case forward already.
That’s not really how it’s being portrayed even amongst Villa fans but stay vigilant because the evidence exists. Hampton finished the season in wicked form as Aston Villa securing their best ever finish of fifth place, also working her way back into the England squad while Leat was stuck watching from the sidelines. However prior to those final months it had been a genuine battle between the two, and had Leat not gotten injured at the wrong time then Hampton may never have had that stretch of form at all.
There was a spell of about a month early in the season when Leat served as first choice while HH was away from the squad for injury/disciplinary reasons and the level didn’t drop at all. This was AVFC manager Carla Ward speaking back in October...
“Leat has been outstanding. There has been a lot of talk about when Hannah is coming back, but I think that is highly disrespectful to Leat. We now have two exceptional keepers that are pushing each other every day and we know we can rely on them, but they will have to fight it out.”
In the end, Hampton played 15 WSL games and Leat played 7. About two-third against one-third. Both of them had injuries which caused some back-and-forth while Leat also got a lot of opportunities in cup games. But, again, it was only in that latter portion of the season where Hampton pulled away. Up until then it was dead level.
Hampton: 15 GM | 1.87 GA/90 | 64.0 SAVE% | 5 CS | -0.30 PSxG/90
Leat: 7 GM | 1.29 GA/90 | 66.7 SAVE% | 1 CS | -0.31 PSxG/90
(Glossary: games, goals against per ninety minutes, save percentage, clean sheets & post-shot expected goals per ninety)
Hampton conceded more goals on average thanks in large part to playing more matches against title contenders but other than that it’s all extremely similar with their stats. Equally excellent shot stoppers behind the same strong defensive unit.
Where they differ most is with their possession stuff, as Hampton tends to launch the ball more often and more accurately, as well as being better at getting up for crosses and sweeping for through balls. Leat doesn’t yet have this reputation, but she’s the better short passer and although she’s roughly the same age as HH, she’s had a couple years less experience at this level so expect plenty more growth in other areas if she does get the reins as the number one.