Good Knocks
Auckland FC grand final preview, Warriors vs Dragons in NRL, White Ferns/Blackcaps in England, NZ Breakers offseason things, and more
Scotty’s Word
NZ Warriors have three games vs Dragons on Saturday. Here’s how they match up...
NRL
Warriors: 2nd | 8-2
Dragons: 17th | 0-10
NSW Cup
Warriors: 8th | 5-5
Dragons: 5th | 5-4
Jersey Flegg Cup
Warriors: 7th | 5-4
Dragons: 1st | 7-1
NZW absorb the absences of Mitchell Barnett and Kurt Capewell rather easily with Jackson Ford and Jacob Laban slotting into starting roles. This flows down to Tanner Stowers-Smith and Eddie Ieremia-Toeava filling bench roles, giving NZW a tremendous concentration of local juniors for this game. Most of whom grew up within a few kilometres of each other in South Auckland and all of whom played 1st 15 rugby union...
Ali Leiataua: Papatoetoe/King’s College
Leke Halasima: Mangere East/Southern Cross Campus
Jacob Laban: Te Aroha/St Bernard’s College
Tanner Stowers-Smith: Halswell/St Bede’s College
Demitric Vaimauga: Otahuhu/De La Salle College
Eddie Ieremia-Toeava: Otahuhu/De La Salle College
This is amplified by Taine Tuaupiki thriving at fullback and Samuel Healey playing in all 10 games. Both were recruited at the reserve grade level coming from Queensland Cup/New South Wales Cup and then starting in NSW Cup for NZW before building into greater NRL roles.
Add in how Luke Hanson, Kayliss Fatialofa and Makaia Tafua fill three spots on the extended bench. All three have played U21s for NZW. Hanson joined from Panthers at that level, Fatialofa’s worked through the full pipeline and Tafua returned to Aotearoa from a stint in Queensland at the U19 level.
Keep this stuff in mind when pondering how NZW view their talent and their recruitment plans. There are too many examples of excellent player development and recruitment at the U21 level or below in the two Andys era for me to list. All of the guys mentioned above are examples and there are deep cuts all through our NZW coverage.
As expected, Te Maire Martin is selected at halfback. I don’t think this will change as long as NZW win and/or Martin’s doing his job. The noise will increase with any detour from that track though. Martin is one of many players who have taken their opportunity this season, hence there are so many selection battles across the squad.
Martin had 194 kick metres vs Broncos. He has averaged 100+ kick metres per game in just one other NRL season (10 total). Kicking has been Martin’s weakest spot but he is an eager runner, excellent passer and rips in without the footy. Chanel Harris-Tavita can step up as a kicker as well and he’s a lefty which keeps the balance on both sides of the ruck.
Harris-Tavita averages 165 kick metres per game in his career and has averaged 170+ in the last three seasons. He has two games over 200 kick metres this season with 231 vs Eels followed by 372 vs Broncos. Harris did most of the kicking vs Broncos and has always stepped up to do more kicking when required.
The most notable stat zone for this game is how Dragons love offloads but don’t score many tries. They are second for offloads per game on 11.2 and 17th for tries scored per game on 2.2. These are the opposite for NZW as they are 14th for offloads on 8.5 and second for tries with 5.5.
Bailey Carmichael is the most interesting Kiwi-NRL junior for Dragons at the moment. He seems to be from Te Puke and he played 1st 15 for Rotorua Boys High School before moving into the Knights system. The middle forward had three years with Knights and played 17 games of U21s for them last year before moving to Dragons where he’s come off the bench for most of his eight games.
The Dragons NRLW squad has Kiwi Ferns Brooke Anderson after her move from Sharks, as well as veteran hooker Nita Maynard. They also have Trinity Tauaneai (Wainuiomata) in the NRLW squad while younger sister Paige and Seriah Palepale (Mangere East) are also in the system as young forwards.
Two Kiwi-NRL wing combos this round featuring two different rugby union wrinkles...
Dolphins - 1st 15
Jamayne Isaako: Eastern/Shirley Boys High School/St Bede’s College
Tevita Naufahu: St Kentigern College (NZ Schools in 2023)
Storm - Sevens
Will Warbrick: Ngongotaha
Moses Leo: Takapuna RU
If you didn’t know about Kaikohe’s Mason Barber he is 19yrs and on the cusp of NRL footy for Cowboys. He made the Australian Schoolboys team soon after leaving Aotearoa and is always in the Cowboys wider squad, having flashed his talent in NRL preseason earlier this year.
Barber has played nine games starting at centre in Queensland Cup for Mackay. He’s only got one try but he has six try assists, 33 tackle breaks and 18 offloads. Tackle breaks in all but one game and offloads in every game. Barber and Eels utility Te Hurinui Twidle are two excellent youngsters on the rise, both of whom can cover key positions for NZ Kiwis moving forward.
For paid subscribers
Spotlights on Taine Tuaupiki, Ali Leiataua, Jacob Laban, Samuel Healey
NZ Warriors NSW Cup deep cuts
White Ferns stats
Spotlights on Izzy Sharp, Bree Illing, Brooke Halliday, Rosemary Mair
Long list of emerging FC seamers
White Ferns lost the first T20I vs England and are 7-2 this year. Izzy Sharp scored with 26* @ 130sr and she is now on 53avg/136sr in T20Is this year with the third highest batting strike-rate for White Ferns. Sharp has been far more effective in T20Is than ODIs and she has now had four innings batting seven with 33avg/132sr, which seems to be the ideal role for her at the moment.
Sharp has either scored 20+ runs or been not-out in seven of her nine T20I innings since her debut last year. While staying consistent in both years, Sharp’s strike-rate has jumped from 104 to 136 and she had a socre of 29 runs @ 138sr vs South Africa earlier this year. That’s two good knocks down the order against two good teams and Sharp is 21-years-old coming off her best season of Super Smash.
Bree Illing took the most wickets for White Ferns with 2w @ 4.7rpo and the 22-year-old has also had a strong start to her T20I career. Illings on 23avg/5.7rpo in T20Is and she now has wickets in five consecutive innings for White Ferns with the four prior to this outing being ODIs which is the best phase of her ODI journey so far.
Illing is the most economical White Ferns seamer who has played more than one game this year (5.23rpo). Lea Tahuhu (5.44rpo) is right behind Illing and I’m curious if these two can play together, bumping out Rosemary Mair. Mair has been the worst T20I bowler for White Ferns this year and is averaging 97 since the start of 2025.
Mair is the third most expensive bowler for White Ferns in T20Is this year, behind Sophie Devine and Suzie Bates. They are all over 6.5rpo and the only bowlers over that mark. Devine’s tied for the second most wickets so no dramas there, but Mair and Bates aren’t taking wickets and are the only bowlers averaging over 30.
Bates was the most economical bowler vs England with her only over going for 4rpo. She’s also the only White Ferns bowler over 8.3rpo and the more England face her, their comfort in scoring off Bates will probably increase. Meanwhile, Nensi Patel is the most economical T20I bowler this year but that featured T20Is against Zimbabwe and she will need to snap up her opportunity when it comes to put pressure on Bates.
Mair has at least had many good years of T20I bowling and averaged 22 prior to the start of 2025. Brooke Halliday has struggled in this format despite being an awesome ODI batter and has never really shown any juice in T20Is. She has a career record of 14.7avg/98sr and is on 17avg/102sr this year, having had two 30+ scores in 43 T20I innings.
Halliday is a 1st 11 player and, based on selections, she is locked in with 1st 11 status through the T20 World Cup. She is a good fielder and has bowled two overs since the start of 2025, both of which were in 2025. Halliday’s not a bowler for White Ferns and has the lowest strike-rate for batters with 10+ runs this year, with the second lowest average.
That’s a pretty low baseline for locked in 1st 11 status. Mair is also in this zone and there is tremendous competition for selection, unlike previous years for White Ferns. Halliday has played every game this year and Mair’s played eight of the nine, so it’s going to be interesting to see if they can do something soon to ease the pressure.
Blackcaps Test bowlers since the start of 2024...
Matt Henry: 68w @ 16.3avg/3rpo
Will O’Rourke: 39w @ 24.2avg/3.6rpo
Jacob Duffy: 25w @ 16.2avg/2.3rpo
Zak Foulkes: 13w @ 28.3avg/2.8rpo
Nathan Smith: 10w @ 39.8avg/4.6rpo
Michael Rae: 8w @ 28.2avg/3.4rpo
Kyle Jamieson: 6w @ 15.5avg/2.9rpo
Ben Sears: 5w @ 32.2avg/4.8rpo
Blair Tickner: 4w @ 8avg/2rpo
Matt Fisher: 2w @ 19avg/3.2rpo
Smith and Sears are the only guys over 30avg. Smith has improved from 48.4avg last year to 19.6avg this year. Sears’ only Test was against Australa and he was solid against a good team. That list has 10 bowlers on it showing the depth available to Blackcaps and the lowest ranked guys in Michael Rae and Matt Fisher both took wickets on debut.
Jamieson and Tickner have only played a few Tests in this period. They are also the only bowlers who played before 2024 on that list with Jamieson averaging 19.7 in his career and Tickner averaging 29.1.
Musical jam...
Nick’s Notebook
Three Questions For Auckland FC’s A-League Grand Final Quest...
1) Does Steve Corica Keep The Same Team?
He bowled a bit of a doosra last week with the back three from the outset... only the third time that Dan Hall, Nando Pijnaker, and Jake Girdwood-Reich had all started together… and one of the others was with JGR as a left-back in the first game of FDV’s absence (then Sakai took a turn, then Elliot settled in smoothly). Goign back three from the start was a very rare goose.
The back three stuff was a successful late-game tactic last year but it’s been pretty sketchy this time around. However it worked to perfection away to an Adelaide team that struggled to pick the lock with that extra man back, allowing the backline to cover more width without losing shape. It also kept AFC cautious and their fine away form this term suggests that’s actually when they’re at their best, when they’re a little more conservative (especially through the midfield). Start by shutting down the opps and then build from there. Set pieces and counter attacks should mean that they still create a few chances even with a more defensive outlook.
It’s a grand final so we’re in ‘win by any means necessary’ territory and Steve Corica knows how that goes better than most. Don’t worry about trying to be expansive for the home fans, they’ll be cheering regardless, treat it like an away game and play spoilers first and foremost.
2) Where Does Francis De Vries Fit Into That Chat?
But there should be one change to the line-up because if FDV is fit enough then he’s gotta start. They didn’t need him last week, sweet as, but he’s the pipeline to Jesse Randall and he’s the best corner taker in the team. That’s basically where the counter attacks and set pieces stuff comes from, right? The question is whether he’s fit enough to go a potential 120 minutes because if he starts he probably needs to be, otherwise it might be wiser to sub him on after 60 mins or something. FDV has only played a combined 25 mins since his return so he’s pretty undercooked. Here’s some proof about that Randall Pipeline idea...
Jesse Randall Overall:
9 goals from 8.79 xG | 8 assists from 8.60 xA
Randall when FDV Starts (22 games):
9 goals from 8.46 xG (0.39 xG/game)
6 assists from 6.22 xA (0.28 xA/game)
Randall w/o FDV Starting (7 games):
0 goals from 0.33 xG (0.05 xG/game)
2 assists from 2.38 xA (0.34 xA/game)
His expected assist numbers actually get slightly higher without FDV… which you can entirely put down to him taking corner kicks in FDV’s absence (they love their inswingers so Randall will still be taking the left-sided ones, most likely, even with Franny back). But the goal scoring chances have shrivelled up into nothing, damn. He’s got less combined xG in the seven games since the last international break than he was averaging every one game before that.
3) Sam Cosgrove vs Harrison Devenish-Meares
A lot of Auckland’s season has boiled down to how they’ve used their Big English Striker. Sometimes they’ve overused him, putting crosses on his head that he frustratingly doesn’t convert. Sometimes they’ve used him brilliantly for lay-offs and flick-ons and allowed him to go hunting for second-phase chances where he’s an excellent poacher, bringing him into the play earlier and then working around him rather than making him the destination. Other times he’s gotten completely into the niggle with his markers and there have been games where that’s backfired and others where it’s worked massively in his team’s favour. Depends how much he’s able to wind them up.
There’s also an odd fact about how Cosgrove, who has 12 goals this season, has not scored after the 60th minute of any match. His penalty against Adelaide – the one that just dribbled over the line (although he thumped in the rebound anyway) – was in the 58th minute which is the third time he’s scored on 58’ having done so in two separate games vs Central Coast.
He’s the main man up top, the point of the arrow, and even with a sore ankle he’s not being subbed off in a grand final unless things go completely awry. That already makes him a key figure... but he’s up against the best goalkeeper in the league according to PFA Team of the Year. Harrison Devenish-Meares got more votes from his fellow players than anyone else in that team (including Cozza himself). Devenish-Meares has already had a couple of blinders against AFC this season and Sydney have only conceded four goals in their last seven matches (including extra time vs Newcastle). Every now and then, Cosgrove has one of those games where he can’t seem to figure out where the goal is and HDM is the type of goalkeeper who might just exacerbate a day like that. Fascinating match-up.
Also, the prior form is very good: Auckland FC have never lost to Sydney FC before
They had a 1-0 win (home) and a 2-2 draw (away) last season. This season has been a similar story where they won 1-0 at Mt Smart in February thanks to a Sam Cosgrove goal (20’). Next time they met was in Oz where Alex Popovic put Sydney ahead in the 84th min only for a Rhyan Grant own goal in the fifth minute of added time to salvage a 1-1 draw. That was the game immediately after Oli Sail’s injury when Michael Woud’s redemption arc began in earnest. Third time they met followed a similar pattern where Popovic again scored around a similar zone to make it 2-1 only for Guillermo May to grab an equaliser in the 90th... his second goal of the day. That was in Sydney.
Auckland’s Possession Percentages vs Sydney this season:
37% | 44% | 40%
When AFC have over 60% of possession they are 0-2-3 (W-D-L)
When AFC have over 50% of possession they are 2-6-5
When AFC have 50% or less of possession they are 10-5-1
When AFV have 40% of less of possession they are 4-0-0
That’s another way of saying the same thing: that Auckland FC do their best mahi from a foundation of Defence First.
For the Paid Subscriber Brethren & Sistren:
Charlisse Leger-Walker’s rising WNBA form
Southland Sharks NBL recruitment
Would Gianni Stensness & Tyler Boyd make the current All Whites?
The NZ Breakers have got their head coach and he’s a doozy. Gordon Herbert is a 67yo Canadian, currently the head coach of the Canadian national team (which possesses the two-time reigning NBA MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the frontman of a golden generation) and before that won the World Cup with Germany in 2023. He’s won trophies coaching domestically in Germany, France, and Finland... in fact he’s even got dual-nationality in Finland after having played and coached there for a long time. Obvious connection there with Petteri Koponen, the Finnish legend who previously coached the Breakers. Herbert has also been an assistant coach with the Toronto Raptors at another stage of his career so he’s done the NBA thing too.
You never know how these things will go, the fits aren’t always as easy as you’d hope, but compare this to Koponen for a sec. Koponen had never been a head coach, having only recently retired and moved into the youth coaching space. Herbert has coached in different countries with different languages at the top level both domestically and internationally for multiple decades. Never in the NBL but you’d imagine the cultural connection is easier for a Canadian in New Zealand/Australia than it would be in Germany or France yet he clearly didn’t have any trouble there either. This is the coaching coup that the previous ownership tried to convince us was true of Dan Shamir.
The Breakers have also confirmed another signing with Kuoat Noi given a two-year contract. He’s an Aussie-South Sudanese forward who joins from Sydney Kings where he was the Sixth Man of the Year two seasons ago and has won two championships in the past four years. This signing has a lot in common with Dejan Vasiljevic who is also a former Sydney Kings player (though was playing against them for Adelaide in the 2026 finals) and has also won two NBL championships in his career. Vasiljevic is 29 years old and Noi is 28 years old. They both bring leadership, they both bring experience, they both bring winning reputations in this league. Neither are turning up for their retirement tours, still with many years of top class ball to offer.
And they’re also both three-point shooters for a team that was terrible in that regard last season and whose two best players, Parker Jackson-Cartwright and Sam Mennenga, are both subpar jump shooters. Both are coming off down years from range. Noi hovered around 36% through his Sydney spell, peaking in that 6MOY season where he shot 39.2% but NBL26 saw him drop down to 33.5%. Better than the Breakers team average though not what he’s capable of. Vasiljevic shot 36.2% from threes last season... fairly steady with the year before though when he was in Sydney he was knocking them down at 41.5%, 37.1%, and 38.5% - those were his first three years out of university. But DJ in particular also has range beyond the perimeter, willing to try and capable of burying crunch shots from the logos, and as I’ve said before that reputation is even more valuable than the percentages (as long as the percentages stay good enough not to burst the reputation).
This has told us so much about how Dillon Boucher is trying to build this roster. Three-point shooting and championship pedigree are the priorities. Less of a priority is signing kiwi players at all costs but the thing about that is the Breakers have tried and failed to recruit the very best kiwi talent. Flynn Cameron chose Adelaide last year. Sam Waardenburg chose Melbourne this year. They didn’t land Taine Murray out of college. Finn Delany and Shea Ili and Tyrell Harrison weren’t available to them. Tai Webster was a nice mid-season get last time albeit an imperfect fit. However, they have landed Carlin Davison on a fresh deal and that’s massive not only for the team’s talent levels but also for the box office value of his dunks. Crowds weren’t good last season. This should be a much more entertaining team.
NZ Breakers in NBL27
Head Coach: Gordon Herbert
PG – Parker Jackson-Cartwright | Preston Le Gassick
SG – Dejan Vasiljevic | Izayah Le’Afa
SF – Reuben Te Rangi
PF – Kouat Noi | Carlin Davison
C – Sam Mennenga
That’s 8/11 roster spots filled, with room for a Next Star if they so desire. They inherited one last year so we’re not really sure if that’s something the current ownership are bothered with. Two of those three players will be imports – likely another forward and probably a ball-handling shooting guard. One more local player on top of that and development players as well. Those DPs will probably be pretty similar to last year’s crew of: Alex McNaught, Tukaha Cooper, Liam Judd, and Jack Andrew. All of them are having class seasons in the NZ NBL right now... but then so are a lot of dudes.
Remaining Free Agents from last season: Izaiah Brockington (Import), Karim Lopez (Next Star), Max Darling, Sean Bairstow, Rob Loe, Tai Webster, Taylor Britt, Rob Baker (Import).
Lopez is going to the NBA. Loe is probably retiring again. Britt has already had his option declined and Preston Le Gassic pretty much replaces him on the roster. Doubtful over Brockington and Baker returns though wouldn’t rule it out just yet. They definitely need a back-up centre so that could be a target for an import, though Mennenga’s starting position would mean that guy would need to be able to get minutes at PF so as not to come all that way only to pack a sad on the bench. That’s why I suspect that backup five role is the one to use the last local spot on. Plenty of kiwi options there... they might even want to upgrade Jack Andrew and clear room for another DP.
Musical Jam...
