Further Hypothesising
Further Hypothesising
All Blacks haka and Sevu Reece, plus Wellington Phoenix yarns
Podcast
TNC Variety Show - Episode 32
The Niche Cast: Giving The Mehrtens (Blackcaps/Kiwi-NRL Preview)
Reading Menu
Michael Maguire Is Building A Hearty Kiwi-NRL Whanau At Wests Tigers (NRL)
Roster Tweaking & Other Offseason Occurrences with the NZ Breakers (Basketball)
Further Thoughts About Steven Adams’ Fit With The Memphis Grizzlies (Basketball)
White Ferns In England: T20I Series Wrap / ODI Preview (Cricket)
Blackcaps In Bangladesh: Finn Allen's Aotearoa's Best Slugger (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
Another episode of All Blacks rugby…
Fairly comprehensive All Blacks win over Argentina last night. This started Akira Ioane joining younger brother Rieko at the front of the haka, a row behind Brodie Retallick. The All Blacks are rolling out each captain at the front of the haka with Sam Whitelock, Ardie Savea and Retallick at the front for the last three Tests.
At the front is very different to ‘leading the haka’. Aaron Smith and TJ Perenara get that honour, with Perenara my personal favourite. The low key joy of All Blacks Tests overseas is helpful camera angles and while this is deep in the mangroves, for some reason Sky Sports persists with their camera folk laying down in front of the haka for an angle where you don’t see much. The last two Tests in Australia don’t have that angle, praise god as all you need are wide angles to really embrace the haka.
Why an Aotearoa broadcaster does the worst job in filming haka continues to baffle me.
Any way, in previous Tests Akira had been a few rows behind Rieko. Rieko has made the front left (opposing players view) spot his own in recent years and last night’s haka saw Akira move to the front right spot where the Ioane brothers stood either side of Retallick. Haka gives kiwis a feeling that can’t be explained, we all know it and we’d all love to do a haka for the world to see. Imagine doing a haka alongside your brother, then graduating to stand side by side with your brother at the front of a haka.
Unlike the Tests vs Australia, Aotearoa enjoyed a hefty possession advantage vs Argentina with 62 percent of the footy. This skews all the stats in Aotearoa’s favour and makes it tricky to gauge individual stats as all the All Blacks enjoyed a nice stat bump with the backline getting busy. I’ve been low key fascinated by Sevu Reece and I’ve touched on Reece in previous emails as he impacts a game of rugby in many different ways.
Reece is 179cm tall and 84kg. He’s obviously a dynamic athlete but Reece doesn’t have Rieko Ioane’s size and mobility package for example. These levels of footy (either code) are like the NBA where players who are 187cm (6ft 2 in) or shorter are at a disadvantage. 187cm is Beauden Barrett’s height, George Bridge is 186cm. Damien McKenzie makes up for his lack of size with footy wizard traits, while Reece lacks size and the sublime skills of his peers.
Reece is an All Blacks winger though and that immediately puts him as one of the best wingers in the world. Hence, when I see Reece popping up in weird spots I take notice. We know the All Blacks are constantly delivering tricks and like Melbourne Storm, the All Blacks are extremely creative in their footy. Who gets the hit up off a line out? Reece…
Peep David Havili close by Reece because they seem to have an imaginary rope connecting them. This phase below features an All Black maul which was again effective despite the change in forward personnel, although this specific maul was shut down just after Perenara joined in and they needed to re-up…
Who is at first-receiver? Havili, with Reece next up. Havili takes his run and Reece is there to help secure possession. Reece releases from the ruck and immediately calls for the ball as he spots an opening on the try line…
Reece may be the smallest bloke in the All Blacks team, perhaps the smallest on the pitch. Reece loves defence and impacts the game without the footy, while his attacking use goes far beyond general wing play. This bloke rips in at every chance and this points to another All Blacks trend. Want to copy the running hooker style? You’d better have a running hooker. Want to copy the wide-running loose forward style? You’d better have loosies who are as mobile as they are big. Want to copy the ball movement? You’d better have forwards who can all pass both ways. Want to copy the 60min sub rotation? You’d better have the bench talent. Want to copy the Reece wing role? You’d better have a winger like Reece.
Super weird and cool at the same time…
Wildcard’s Notebook
More Welly Nix Women’s Squad Predictions
2pm on Friday afternoon is not normally when major announcements are made, generally speaking that’s when you announce something that you want to bury at the end of the news week. But this was a little different. It was a race against time and a battle against Australian football bureaucracy and when those races/battles are won, albeit with some concessions, then you don’t waste a second of time before revelling in the glory of victory.
The Welly Nix W-League team is happening and it’s happening immediately. This very season, a season which kicks off in November a mere two months from now. Although whether it begins on time or not is a covid dependant thing given the restrictions in place in both Aotearoa and Australia right now – the Nix will be based in Aussie to start next season, both in the A-League and W-League (though there are hopes to bring games home along the way, perhaps even a permanent relocation to NZ for the men later in their longer season... fingers crossed). But regardless the work begins immediately to appoint a coach and to build a squad.
Two months ago I wrote a piece hypothesising on what a Wellington Phoenix W-League team might look like. That was based on zero inside info, and working off the contract situations of players at that current time. As we well know, August was a boom for kiwi footy transfers so plenty has changed since then. There’s even a new Football Ferns coach in place. This was what I came up with at the time...
Now the team is a reality and the scenarios are quite different. In order to maintain the veneer of the W-League existing for the betterment of Australian players (and Australian players alone) the SheNix will have to have a quota of Aussie in the squad – a squad that’ll be 18 strong by the sounds of it. That’s fair enough, especially as a compromise for backing the league down in letting kiwis be registered as locals, but I was anticipating a number more like four or maybe five. Instead it’s seven. Seven Aussies.
There has been a trade-off of sorts where Football Australia will cover a minimum salary’s worth of pay for one New Zealand player on every other team. If they have any. In other words, Claudia Bunge at Melbourne Victory will have the baseline of her salary covered by FA while the Victory only have to pay whatever she earns on top of that. A pay subsidy, you dig?
But considering NZ players count as imports for Aussie teams, same as in the A-League, that’s not nearly as helpful as it sounds. It’s nice, sure. But it’s not something that’ll be widely used given there are only four visa spots on each roster. Maybe more so at the moment when American-based imports are harder to bring in. Honestly, I can see it being best used by clubs trying to poach the best performing Phoenix ladies same as what happens with the fellas.
There’s no min/max of NZers decreed, meaning that if any of those four import spots were to be used by the WPX then it’d come at the expense of a kiwi player. Remember we’re dealing with expansion here too so it’s not like any Aussies are losing their place – the league is being added to, these are players who otherwise wouldn’t be playing. With two more teams to be added next season though maybe they’ll ease things up in season two.
Anyway, that mock squad was built of 22 possibly-available NZers at the time. Since then Paige Satchell and Liz Anton have re-signed with Aussie clubs. Emma Rolston and Anna Leat have signed overseas. Rosie White (who was there on the guess that they might be able to get offseason loans from USA/Scandinavia) has been ill and hasn’t played for a couple months. Actually that might make her more likely to get a loan for some minutes in the legs but yeah. And most dramatically we now know there are only 11 spots available for NZers in the squad.
No idea who the Aussies will be that they scoop up but hopefully they can find a few loopholes. Australians with a kiwi parent. Those who might go the Gianni Stensness/Joey Champness route and switch allegiances. Rebekah Stott plays as a local for Melbourne City after all. Given the limited NZ spots, I wouldn’t expect them to sign any foreign players at first either. Not much point, the Aussies will have to carry that load. So who might the lucky eleven NZers be?
For starters there are five players from the Olympic squad who don’t currently have pro/college teams: Annalie Longo, Erin Nayler, Anna Green, Marisa van der Meer, and Michaela Robertson (Betsy Hassett could be a smokey too as her season in Iceland finished up overnight and she’s potentially off contract now but we’ll leave her out for now).
The fact that Nayler hasn’t signed elsewhere yet could be a hint. She’s coming off a difficult season with Reading where she only played one league cup game so she might want a year playing regularly to get things back on track. Annalie Longo was a big part of the announcement, posing with a scarf for pictures and everything (really weird seeing her in yellow, aye?), but that was in her new role as NZF’s Women’s Development Manager so it’s not necessarily a clue as to her playing situation. Longo was superb for the Victory last W-League season so would be an ideal Phoenix presence but it’s up to her. Likewise Anna Green gave up the pro stuff overseas a couple years back, now working as an accountant in Wellington. But she’s continued to play for the Ferns and for Capital and she’s gotta be in prime contention, surely. Nayler, Longo, or Green would all make excellent inaugural captains too.
Mickey Robertson is as close to a safe bet as possible. She’s been training with the boy’s academy for a wee while so she’s already effectively with the club. Green has been too, btw. Meanwhile Tui Dugan and Macey Fraser were also part of the unveiling and referred to as part of the team’s academy system. Fraser has spent time training with both the Ole Academy and WeeNix – the two best male player development systems in the country by a long way – and even if she didn’t have that Wellington base then her form in the Premiership would (coming up at Canterbury but playing for Southern last season) have her high in the running. As for Dugan, at 18yo her age might be the only barrier but she played for every game for Capital last Prem season, and comes with the tick of approval from Paul Ifill so again the connections run deep.
Then it’s a matter of looking at the FFDP squads for the rest of them. The early rumour is that coach Gemma Evans will go from the FFDP to the Phoenix in a logical transition and you’d imagine quite a few of that squad are in the mix to do the same. It’d make sense: that programme is there to create a professional-style environment for the best domestic players on the scene and now the Phoenix has emerged to add another step on the ladder above them. Curious to see if this affects the FFDP’s future given NZF’s involvement in both.
If there’s one complaint about the FFDP, which has produced solid results cultivating pro players, it’s that it tends not to have enough of a presence from the dominant Prem club in the nation: the Canterbury Pride. Probably because Cantabs players don’t fancy relocating to Auckland. Luckily Wellington cuts the distance in half so that should help.
Meaning that, hypothetically speaking, we could have a squad which looks something like this...
GK – Erin Nayler, Georgia Candy
DEF – Anna Green, Mikaela Hunt, Rebecca Lake, Marisa van der Meer + 2 Australians
MID – Macey Fraser, Charlotte Wilford-Carroll + 3 Australians
FWD – Mickey Robertson, Kelli Brown, Arabella Maynard + 2 Australians
HeNix Squad Update
This was semi-expected news. The two shining lights in the current academy crop (both fresh off a trip to the Olympics) are now on board with senior deals. The club had to sign anther U21 player and another goalkeeper to bring themselves up to A-League requirements and here’s two of the former and one of the latter. Three year deals for each. Boom.
Paulsen currently shapes to be club’s backup goalie behind Oli Sail at 19 years of age. Risky but rest assured he’s the best goalie in the country in his age range, a superb shot stopper and confident with ball at feet too. Old meanwhile made his A-League debut late last season. He’s a skillful midfielder with deceptive strength (though that’ll need to improve at the A-League level) and great balance and vision. Scores them and sets them up both. They’ve already been training full time with the squad in preseason so would have been a part of the group either way.
This brings the HeNix up to 18 registered players so still at least two more to go – who could potentially both be imports. Old and Paulsen join Ben Waine as the only players contracted to 2024 which is a season beyond Ufuk Talay’s current deal as manager.
Flying Kiwis Sneak Preview...
Olivia Chance - Celtic FC (Scottish Premier League)
At half-time against Glasgow City, Celtic found themselves in a bad place. They were 2-0 down against the 14-time defending champions and while it may only have been the second game of the season it was still shaping to be a potentially disastrous result for their title hopes. So they went with the trump card. They subbed on Olivia Chance.
Two goals later and Celtic went home with a 2-2 draw. Liv Chance’s first two goals for the Hoops and both were assisted by Chinese international Mengyu Shen, who herself was also brought on at HT.
Chance was the one who played the initial ball through for Shen in transition for the first goal which sparked the whole move. Then she followed it up by dashing half the length of the field in support and popped a clinical finish into the bottom corner. The second goal obviously a tap-in after some twinkly feet from Shen but again: right place right time huge goal.
Celtic actually started decently as Caitlyn Hayes had a close call with an early header among a few other moves that didn’t quite click together but then Clare Shine smashed in a low shot from a narrow angle for Glasgow City after half an hour and a Lauren Davidson strike seven mins later extended the GC lead. Ruthless stuff from the champs. Until the second half, that is. Celtic even had a few opportunities to maybe win it later on but they’ve gotta be chuffed with the 2-2 draw under the circumstances.