Curious Observers
Curious Observers
NRL salary cap basics, Alex Rufer as Welly Nix captain & a Charlisse Leger-Walker check-in
Podcast
TNC Variety Show - Episode 41
The Niche Cast - Folding Circulars (Plunket Shield, All Whites, Wellington Phoenix)
Reading Menu
Kiwi-NRL Takeover Continues With Seven Young Hookers From Auckland Signed To NRL Clubs (NRL)
How Are The Welly Nix Fellas Gonna Stay Competitive This Season? (Football)
Flying Kiwis – November 16 (Football)
The Breakers’ Latest Prospect Seems Strangely Familiar... (Basketball)
2021/22 Plunket Shield: Same Old Joe Carter, Same Old Canterbury (Cricket)
Scotty’s Word
NRL player market - Marata Niukore and Isaiah Papali’i…
The NRL player market and how it is discussed can be pretty damn weird. While many folks love breaking down NBA salary caps and a decent chunk of NBA coverage revolves around fitting salaries into a salary cap, this is not the case for the NRL. There is no concrete information about player salaries in the NRL and the coverage of this is extremely basic, even though Australian media (and NZ media) love to throw salaries/contracts around.
This lack of transparency stops me from going deep into NRL salary cap assessment. Fans like to think they have some understanding of their club’s salary cap because of what the media reports, however figures reported by media can never be certain compared to the NBA. Keep this in mind as you read on because I’m using reported salaries - not as an exercise in gauging a team’s salary cap space but to introduce something that all the NRL player market news ignores.
First though, I’ve been a curious observer of the NRL player market and yesterday news came through that Isaiah Papali’i would be moving from Eels to Tigers for 2023. This comes after Marata Niukore sealed a move from Eels to Warriors for 2023 and it’s super silly to make deals for 2023 late in 2021; this is another flaw in the NRL player market. Why not do all the business for 2023 after the 2022 season in a free agency/trade window? Ah well, this is the NRL.
Both Papali’i and Niukore went to Eels on cheapish deals, now they have claimed more lucrative deals. These two started in Warriors Under 20s, both wound up at the Eels where they developed quickly and now they are cashing in. I view this as an interesting case of gaining value and while most players do not gain value at NZ Warriors, the Eels have a solid record of player development. In these cases, the Eels player development hinders their ability to re-sign players as they out-grow their initial value. Great for players, good for the club if the club has a good junior system where cheaper players rotate in each season.
The NRL salary cap took a hit during covid and this is another interesting wrinkle to ponder…
2021: $9.02mil (down from $9.6mil).
2022: $9.11mil (down from $9.7mil).
Clubs would have been planning for a $9.6mil salary cap this year, then it drops by almost $600,000. Similar case for 2022 and keep this idea in your quiver when chatting NRL with the homies as I reckon this is has amplified already tricky salary cap situations like we’re seeing with the Eels for example. Generally, ponder how tricky it would be to re-jig all your salary cap planning and how this plays out for a club or your favourite NRL club.
What’s interesting though, is that there is a jump up from $9.02mil this season to $9.11mil next season. Given that the initial salary caps were pushing $10mil, I believe the 2023 salary cap could be up around $10mil - depending on NRL’s cashflow. At the very least, I expect a decent rise in the salary cap and $9.5mil seems fair.
As an example of how weird NRL media is: Fox Sports have gone with $10mil salary cap for Redcliffe Dolphin fantasies while this yarn used the same $9.11 figure from this year. Rather hefty difference between the two huh?
Let’s use Marata Niukore as an example of why I think this is kinda important. Niukore is reported to have signed a $625,000 deal (similar range as the salary cap increase) and here’s the impact Niukore’s $625k salary would have on the NZ Warriors salary cap by year…
2021: 6.9% - percentage of salary cap
2022: 6.8%
2023: 6.57% (9.5mil)
2024: 6.25% (10mil)
I’d consider Niukore’s $625k deal a bit above average this year, however as his salary stays the same and the salary cap increases, Niukore’s deal looks a bit better. How can Papali’i get a more lucrative deal from Tigers for 2023 and beyond? Because the salary cap will increase.
Per Zero Tackle, NZ Warriors have Addin Fonua-Blake ($850k), Tohu Harris ($700k) and Shaun Johnson ($500k) locked down for the next two seasons at least. These deals will stay the same while the salary cap increases and as with that Niukore breakdown, the salary cap hit on these deals decreases as the salary cap increases. Peep this Shaun Johnson example (this is another example of weird NRL player market stuff as NRL.com reported his salary as $800k and Sydney Morning Herald used $900k) and I’ll settle with a salary of $850k for this example…
2021: 9.4% of Sharks salary cap.
2022: 5.4% of Warriors salary cap.
Seems like a great deal for Warriors huh?
An easier example is to use the $1mil mark. This season the salary cap was just over $9mil and soon it will hit $10mil which changes the value of a $1mil player (1/9th - 1/10th). Throw a whole new team to this equation for 2023 and there will be 30+ more roster spots, as well as a salary cap that could be the highest it’s ever been.
First and foremost there is no transparency in NRL salaries. Then most media report contracts as ‘four year/$2.5mil’ (Niukore example) which is an extremely basic way of reporting a contract. Then even if someone does some division to get 2,500,000 divided by four for the annual salary and impact on the salary cap, no one is reporting how the salary cap changes and will jump up for 2023.
All that matters in this context is the salary cap hit - how much salary cap space is used on a player?
Wildcard’s Notebook
Captain, Oh Captain...
It was going to be Steven Taylor. He’d been named and everything but then he retired. So the Nix needed a new captain and a couple days before the start of the 2021-22 season that decision has been announced: Alex Rufer will be the club captain. Oli Sail will be his vice-captain. A couple 25 year old kiwi fellas who’ve been at the club probably as long as any one in the squad other than Louis Fenton.
I was leaning towards David Ball, to be honest. I thought that in the absence of Taylor and Dávila, the last two permanent captains, the next leader might be an import too. Ball is definitely a leader on the park. He’s poised for a big season (at least the Phoenix need him to have one if they’re gonna be competing for the finals) and has shown great loyalty to the club in re-signing during covid when others were gapping the scene. Tim Payne would also have been a candidate given that he’s the natural successor to Steven Taylor on the playing field: the loud, committed, energetic centre-back.
But there’s more that goes into these decisions than that. Alex Rufer has been vice-captain the last couple seasons. He was overlooked when Dávila took over from Taylor yet clearly he’s a major figure within the sheds for this team. That was reflected in him first getting the vice-captaincy and now it’s been reflected in him becoming the Wellington Phoenix’s first homegrown club captain. And fifth overall after Ross Aloisi, Andrew Durante, Steven Taylor, and Ulises Dávila.
Know that these decisions aren’t made flippantly. Nor are they made entirely based on on-field importance. The wider squad will have had a say in things, directly and indirectly, and those intra-squad dynamics are something we don’t have access to. This is what Ufuk Talay had to say in the press release...
“We had a lot of in-depth meetings on who it would be and I think we’ve come to the right conclusion. Alex has been at the club for a long time. I think he knows the club’s values and expectations and I think he understands quite well my expectations and values that we have within the group. It was an easy choice and I think it was a great opportunity for Alex to step up. It’s [also] a great opportunity for Oli to also step up and play a leadership role.”
I’m a big fan of Alex Rufer as a player and I reckon he’s quite misunderstood. Certainly that was the case was when he was playing as a striker in his younger days but he’s since found his home as a hard-edged midfielder. I want to write about this actually, if I can figure out how to go about it. A profile on what Alex Rufer does well as a player just so people can get a clear image in their heads. He’s going to be physical. He’s going to pick up yellow cards. He’s probably not gonna score many goals although 0 in 88 A-League appearances is clearly a weird one – surely put him on penalty duty for the next one they win just to get the duck out of the way.
That physical presence in the midfield is massive, you want teams to think twice about attacking down the middle. Let them know they’re getting shouldered into the dirt if they try. But what I love most about Rufer’s game is his forward passing. Probably because he played a lot of striker as a youngster, AR is always looking for that inlet ball to the forwards’ feet. Advancing the play. There was a point late in Uffie’s first season (after covid hit) when they were struggling for goals where Rufer seemed to increasingly often come on with that purpose – to get the ball into the attacking third – breaking up an otherwise impressive Devlin/Steinmann partnership. Rufer’s the third best player of that trio but sometimes it’s more about fit/need than ability.
With Cam Devlin gone, Rufer will get to start the season in the middle alongside Clayton Lewis. Both those guys are among the many players in this group from whom a leap in production/performance would not only be a huge boost to the team but is also very feasible. For Rufer to do what he does best, as a guy who hasn’t always held on to his starting place in the team, he probably wants to feel valued and empowered. Well, now he’s the captain.
Also, no successful sports team is relying on one leader to carry them. All the great teams have leadership groups where a diversity of voices can have influence, where a number of players have that level of respect within the squad. This is a typically young Phoenix group but they’ve still got that core of dudes. Alex Rufer and Oli Sail (hell of a rise for that dude too). David Ball. Tim Payne. Gary Hooper. Clayton Lewis. That’s a very good thing for their prospects of not being crap this season.
CL-Dubs...
Two games into the new Pac-12 season, the Cougars are 2-0 and Charlisse Leger-Walker has been dominating as expected. Her two stat lines...
vs San Jose St: 32 MIN | 22 PTS (8/13 FG, 3/7 3P, 3/4 FT) | 4 REB | 6 AST | 3 STL
vs Nthn Arizona: 37 MIN | 22 PTS (7/22 FG, 2/9 3P, 6/7 FT) | 3 REB | 3 AST | 4 STL
Krystal’s not doing half too bad either herself, averaging 10 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.5 rebounds through these two healthy wins – they beat San Jose State 86-56 and beat Northern Arizona 62-54. Next up is Idaho in their first away game, that one’s on Monday morning NZT.
(As an aside here, I wish there were more high-angled cameras in sports coverage. Such a fascinating way to view a game from something close to directly above where the positioning of players becomes more obvious as you see the entirety of the game unfold – most coverage is very close-up focused which is fine but... mix it up sometimes)