Crunching Tape
Warriors vs Storm fallout, Steven Adams playoff prep, Auckland FC's premiership push, Marko Stamenic, Kiwi County Tour, NRL quick-hitters, and more
Scotty’s Word
Bad weekend for NZ Warriors. The 14-42 loss vs Storm was stink but that usually happens regardless of how NZW are tracking and Storm can destroy any team when they click into motion. Forget any old thoughts you may have about Storm because they are the most entertaining NRL team and have been for a few years now which, along with a consistent appreciation of Aotearoa, makes them an enjoyable team to follow from the Kiwi-NRL perspective.
That loss was compounded by two losses vs Sharks in the tiers below. NZW had a 20-28 loss vs Newtown Jets who are the reserve grade outfit for Sharks and a 22-28 loss vs Sharks in the U21 Jersey Flegg Cup. Both losses were in Auckland.
Two positives...
The NRL bench played big minutes. 42mins for Bunty Aofa, 49mins for Jackson Ford, 41mins for Demitric Vaimauga, and 36mins for Leka Halasima. Rocco Berry got through 80mins and Taine Tuaupiki spent more time at fullback. All of which will be useful as the season rolls along.
The U17 Harold Matthews Cup team won their first finals game vs Roosters. They won 20-4 in this game after losing 24-26 to Roosters last weekend. Last year they had three consecutive finals wins on their way to the championship so they have now won four finals games in a row.
Another thing...
NZW signed Jye Linnane from Knights for three years and he'll start with NZW later this year for summer training. Linnane is a half who has had back-to-back knee injuries but I'm less buzzed about Linnane and more intrigued about a few bigger trends that are part of this signing.
There is a weird crossover with Knights because they have three young halves from Aotearoa in Haami Loza (Mangere East/Otara), Cullen Gray (Hikurangi), and Ryder Crosswell (Dannevirke). Hold up, the Knights also had Ryder Williams (Marist) as a late inclusion on their U21 bench this round and this seems to be the same Ryder Williams who recently had an NRL development contract with Titans at 17-years-old.
Williams was number 23, the last spot on the bench for the Knights Jersey Flegg Cup team, while their starting halves combo was Loza and Gray. That makes it three halves from Aotearoa in the same Knights U21 team. Crosswell is a bit younger having played SG Ball Cup.
NZW already have a bunch of Aussie halves in their system and now we can add Linnane to that group. Meanwhile, Knights have a bunch of kiwi halves and Linnane will soon depart for Aotearoa. NZW want Aussie halves and Knights want kiwi halves. Weird huh?
NZW stockpiling Aussie halves is part of a trend during the two Andys era of young Aussies embracing the move to Aotearoa and Kiwi-NRL juniors returning to Aotearoa. While the halves stuff is a bit goofy, the fact that young Aussies are happy to move to Auckland can only be a positive because they believe that Mt Smart is the best spot for them to grow.
Luke Metcalf is the obvious bloke. Tanah Boyd is from Gold Coast and was part of the halves equation for Titans, but he was happy to move to Auckland where he is playing reserve grade. Luke Hanson left Panthers and was followed by Jett Cleary. All these examples are positive reinforcement for the NZW development system but none is more notable than Ivan Cleary sending his youngest son to Mt Smart because he believes that's the best place for Jett's development.
Samuel Healey is the starting hooker in NSW Cup and he left Sharks to pounce on an opportunity. Tallan Egan joined older brother Wayde at Mt Smart ahead of last season.
This goes back to the goofy Newcastle stuff: Jack Thompson left Knights mid-way through the U17 campaign last year to join NZW and was a key figure in their Harold Matthew Cup success. Thompson hasn't played yet this year so I can't double down on him but this is part of the trend.
There are others who left Australia to join NZW this year such as Jackson Kite, James Marriott, Mitchell Bebbington, and Saxon Day. Some have links to Aotearoa but they all seem to have grown up and played all their footy in Australia, before joining NZW U21s.
The NRL team has guys like Mitchell Barnett, Kurt Capewell, and Jackson Ford who all embraced moves to Aotearoa. This group isn't any different to previous eras though and the major change is how young Aussies view NZW as a good spot for their development.
At the same time there has been a bunch of lads moving back to Aotearoa. There are the top-tier examples like James Fisher-Harris, Marata Niukore, Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad, Te Maire Martin, and Erin Clark. Then there's Taine Tuaupiki who was only at the Queensland Cup level having spent most of his life in Australia and then returned to Aotearoa to start in NSW Cup and build his way up.
Moala Graham-Taufa, Daeon Amituanai, William Fakatoumafi, and Caleb Laiman all returned from Australia to join NZW. Amituanai and Fakatoumafi had previously been in the NZW system before departing during the Redcliffe-Warriors era.
The U21 team this week featured Caelys-Paul Putoko (Titans), Kahu Capper (Roosters), and Jarome Falemoe (Knights) who all returned from Australia. Harry Durbin and Makaia Tafua were both played junior footy in Queensland before returning to Aotearoa when the two Andys era started.
Falemoe is a good place to wrap this all up because he was with Knights a few weeks ago and returned to Auckland. He went through Southern Cross Campus with Leka Halasima and has a similar, not quite Halasima levels, power/mobility combination.
This was a bad weekend for NZW. But there is nothing bad about young Aussies wanting to come to Auckland and there is nothing bad about Kiwi-NRL juniors returning to Aotearoa.
Tyrone Thompson's NRL Debut was covered here
Kiwi-NRL quick hitters...
Joseph Tapine (Harbour City - Wellington) last four seasons
2022: 25 games, 56% wins, 47 offloads, 165m/game, 95.1% tackling
2023: 24 games, 50% wins, 59 offloads, 155m/game, 93.7% tackling
2024: 24 games, 50% wins, 52 offloads, 166m/game, 94.3% tackling
2025: 4 games, 75% wins, 13 offloads, 153m/game, 94.6% tackling
Mawene Hiroti (Western Suburbs - New Plymouth) this season
2 games, 2 tries, 179m/game, 85.4% tackling
Naufahu Whyte (Bay Roskill) minutes per game in recent seasons
2023: 35
2024: 33
2025: 52.3
Salesi Foketi (Manurewa) is 19yrs averaging 36.3mins per game with 94.5% tackling for Roosters.
Jeremy Marshall-King (Whakatane) has the best tackling efficiency of his career ( ninth season) with 95.9%. Also averaging 0.8 offloads per game which is the highest of his Dolphins career.
Starford To'a (Mt Wellington) is on 129m/game and 91.3% tackling for Tigers this season, both are career highs. Also has five tries and four try assists in five games.
Alec MacDonald (Auckland) has made 123 tackles with one missed tackle. He now has more tackle breaks and offloads (both two) than missed tackles.
For the paid subscribers I explore the depths of the Bulldogs development pipeline from the Kiwi-NRL perspective. I also roll through three young men and women who didn't make my '10 best young cricketers' yarns after I published the women's breakdown over the weekend. Between the 10 best, honourable mentions and the players listed beyond the wall there are at least 15 young men and women who are on the rise as an example of the cricketing talent emerging from the mangroves in Aotearoa.
New Zealand's 10 Best Young Cricketers After The Summer Of 2024/25
New Zealand's 10 Best Young Women's Cricketers After The Summer Of 2024/25
Kiwi County Tour update ahead of day four being played Monday night...
Brett Hampton - Hampshire
14ov, 1w @ 3.2rpo | 26 runs @ 137sr | 9ov, 1w @ 4.8rpo
Logan van Beek - Leicestershire
82* @ 79sr | 23ov, 4w @ 4.3rpo | 25 runs @ 38sr
Blair Tickner - Derbyshire
20ov, 2w @ 4.3rpo | 26 runs @ 39sr | 12ov, 3w @ 4.9rpo
While the battle between van Beek and Tickner is ongoing, there is a theme of van Beek being awesome that needs to be highlighted. Here's his Plunket Shield mahi from the summer...
Bat: 367 runs @ 28.2avg/52.5sr, 1 x 100, 1 x 50
Ball: 36w @ 20.6avg/3rpo
Van Beek was the leading wicket-taker and the only bowler who took 30+ wickets. He also finished third for Wellington runs and was one of four Wellington batters who hit a century. Here are his last two winters in County Championship - both for Worcestershire...
2023: 59 runs @ 19.6avg/51sr | 8w @ 20.2avg/4rpo
2024: 144 runs @ 24avg/52sr | 13w @ 28.7avg/4.1rpo
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
There’s a small side-idea that I’ve been toying with over the last few days since writing about the Steven Adams + Alperen Segun Double Big line-up that’s been so good for the Houston Rockets of late. Except for today, when they got blown out by the Denver Nuggets... although the Nuggs were in must-win mode for their playoff seeding whereas the Rockets were rusty after resting most of their players, including Adams, for the previous two games.
Anyway, the Rockets have finished up in the second seed with a 52-30 record. First time they’ve made the playoffs since 2020, breaking a drought of four seasons. Feels eerily similar to Adams’ first season in Memphis when they went from 38-34 in ninth to 56-26 in second. The Rockets were 41-41 in eleventh last time. Steven Adams debuts for a team and they launch into immediate contention. Funny that.
That’s not the idea I was getting at though. The idea is that the Eastern Conference leaders Cleveland Cavaliers play lots with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, and the Western Conference leaders Oklahoma City Thunder’s preferred starting five includes both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein. It’s becoming increasingly common to see two big men, with the league swinging back in that direction in that cyclical way that it always does... although Adams plus Sengun is by far the most effective of them.
The reason Adams/Sengun works so well is probably not the reason that everyone gets excited about. Yeah, sure, they’re big and physical and they rebound the hell out of everything. But what makes that set work so well is that they’re also both really skilled players in those positions. Sengun’s got all sorts of ways he can score. Adams remains a deeply underrated passer from multiple areas. Adams in particular is also a renowned defensive communicator which is huge when rolling out change-up sets. It’s not all about old-fashioned rugged basketball... the Rockets actually play faster with Adams and Sengun. In the 162 mins they’ve shared, Houston averages 101.50 possessions per 48 minutes while their overall team average is 98.6 possessions. But of course they do also rebound outrageously well together. It’s just that rebounding alone doesn’t make this work… having intelligent, versatile, skilled bigs is what makes it work.
The Rockets will face the winner of the play-in game between Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors. That’s going to be good fun either way – Adams was awesome in the playoffs against the Warriors a few years ago (despite missing the first couple games with covid) and of course there’s a point to be proven if he faces the Grizzlies team that traded him and then got worse.
Another thing I’m pondering is how Adams has an unfair reputation of not being as good in the playoffs as he is in the regular season. The series before that Warriors-Grizz one a few years back saw him benched against the Timberwolves for struggling to deal with the outside threat of Karl-Anthony Towns. That felt like coaching issues as much as a Steve-o issue (Taylor Jenkins was fired by Memphis recently) and it’s an outlier in his overall career. But I haven’t crunched the numbers/tape to prove anything yet.
If you want more where that came from, you’d better get in on the Paid Substack stuff because there’s additional Steven Adams yarns, plus some stuff about the Breakers latest signing and the Wellington Phoenix Women beyond the (pay)wall.
Marko Stamenic did something pretty incredible this morning as his Olympiacos side won 1-0 against AEK Athens to confirm their Greek Super League championship with three games to spare. This means that Stamenic has won consecutive league titles in Denmark (with FC Copenhagen), Serbia (with Red Star Belgrade), and Greece (with Olympiacos). Plus Olympiacos are in the final of the Greek Cup to be played in a month so he’s one game away from making that three straight league and cup doubles in three different countries. Absolutely unprecedented for a kiwi player.
Stamenic was an unused sub in the game that decided the title – his biggest contribution to the match was in helping break up the post-game niggliness which saw both teams end up with red cards after the final whistle. Lots of tempers on display there. Stamenic has only featured once in his team’s past 11 league matches (at least he’s kept busy in the cup during that time), though with three dead-rubber games left he should hopefully get a nudge in there.
It’s been an annoying season and it’s obvious he won’t be back next time... best case scenario that’ll mean hanging out with Nottingham Forest though another loan deal seems likely. Probably to the English Championship... maybe even to another country where he can keep the league and cup double streak going.
Auckland FC drew their fifth game of the last six on the weekend, grinding out a 2-2 draw away to Sydney FC. Nothing to worry about there as they take their undefeated streak up to 12 matches. AFC put points on the board early and have maintained their lead on the table ever since despite various line-up changes and all sorts of challenges... whilst remaining impossible to beat. When knockout footy begins, that’s all that matters. Survive and advance. Although it is a funny coincidence that the Wellington Phoenix and Auckland FC have the same number of wins since the third derby.
Western United lost away to Western Sydney on Sunday so if anyone was fretting, Auckland FC remain four points clear with three rounds remaining. There is even a chance they could secure the Premiers’ Plate this upcoming week. That’d require winning away to Melbourne Victory and seeing Melbourne City lose to Western Sydney, plus Western United failing to win away to Brisbane Roar on Thursday. With that conglomeration of events, AFC would move to 50 points with City in second on 43. No catching with two rounds left. More likely is that Auckland will seal the deal at home against Perth Glory in the penultimate round... that’d be the most enjoyable outcome for the fanbase. Home crowd and all that. Especially if they let them do the trophy then and there. The magic number is six after last round.
Also, gotta say I did enjoy the brief glimpse of Tommy Smith as an emergency striker at the end there. Much more than the ongoing trend of Cam Howieson as a secondary starting forward. What they need is a fit Max Mata who, statistically, seems to be their most effective dude. The updated stats are that AFC has a +2.05 goal difference per ninety mins with Mata on the pitch and a +0.38 GD/90 without him. That’s the most drastic differential of anyone in the squad to have played significant minutes.
The Wellington Phoenix Men are currently 11th with their coach coming off contract, falling short of expectations even after considering the players that they lost in the previous transfer window.
The Wellington Phoenix Women just missed the finals for the fourth straight season, another disappointing outcome that’s seen so many of last season’s problems (creativity, losing narrowly in Australia, not enough experienced players) repeated... and their coach is also coming off contract.
It’s been a shocking past six months for the Welly Nix but in a humorous happenstance, both of their Central League teams are top of the table after three weeks. The Men’s U20s have won 3/3 games with a +10 goal difference. The Women’s U18s have won 3/3 games with a +22 goal difference. So at least the pathways are good. If they can recruit next year’s crop of senior players as well as they recruit their academy intakes then they’ll be sweet.
Musical Jam...
