Breach Territory
Blackcaps improvement ideas, Warriors vs Titans WTF, Kiwi-NRL consolation, Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker, NBL stats, Domestic footy roundup & more
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Aotearoa Warriors Diary: Gold Coast Titans Pop Out Concert (Rugby League)
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: The Reuben Porter Slow Grind To NRL Footy With Tigers (Rugby League)
Auckland FC Signing Tracker & Squad Profiles (Football)
White Ferns Tour Of England Preview (Cricket)
Anatomy Of New Zealand's 2024 T20 World Cup Shambles (Cricket)
27fm Weekly Playlist: June 21 (Music)
Scotty’s Word
Tough times covering Blackcaps and NZ Warriors at the moment. Both include a stunted 'wtf just happened' leftover vibe and both situations are fascinating because I keep coming back around to an optimistic outlook. Being deep in these mangroves leads me to curiosity about how both groups respond, rather than an overwhelming melancholy.
Following up from our recent Blackcaps coverage, here are some quick Blackcaps thoughts for each format...
T20s: More aggression, confidence, swag. Tim Robinson, Mitch Hay, Bevon Jacobs feel like interesting lads in this equation. Pivot away from a Kane Williamson style to a vibrant kiwi way of T20 cricket.
ODIs: Expertise. Last World Cup showed how tricky ODI cricket is, especially when not playing much of it. NZ will play more ODIs and Ford Trophy is a staple of the summer, so 50-over skills can be developed. This requires crafty cricketers (bat, ball, mental) and I'm curious about Nathan Smith, Dean Foxcroft, Zak Foulkes, Josh Clarkson.
Tests: Find some grit. There isn't much of a link between drawn Tests and World Test Championship success for NZ, but the current Test group have a habit of crumbling under pressure. Four draws in their last 31 Tests reflect that. A winning record of 16-11 since the start of 2020 is nice but Blackcaps aren't good enough at grinding through a Test, not as good as kiwis would hope. Here are their Test losses since the start of 2020 and the margins...
vs Australia: 279 runs
vs India: 372 runs
vs Bangladesh: 8 wickets
vs South Africa: 198 runs
vs England: 5 wickets
vs England: 5 wickets
vs England: 7 wickets
vs England: 267 runs
vs Bangladesh: 150 runs
vs Australia: 172 runs
vs Australia: 3 wickets
11 losses and only one less than 5 wickets or 100 runs. Maybe that's because Blackcaps win all the close games, or maybe they just aren't as gritty as the BJ Watling era. Increasing losses on New Zealand soil only strengthens the lack of grit idea.
T20 Blast update
Cameron Fletcher: 88 runs @ 29avg/127sr
Will Young: 56 runs @ 9avg/77sr
Ben Lister: 8w @ 26avg/7.8rpo
Tom Bruce: 89 runs @ 14avg/107sr
For reference here are the career stats of Lister (bowling only) and Smith...
Ben Lister
ODIs: 39.5avg/6rpo
T20Is: 28.7avg/8.5rpo
FC: 25.7avg/2.7rpo
LA: 32.9avg/5.3rpo
T20: 24.3avg/7.8rpo
Nathan Smith (batting | bowling)
FC: 27.4avg/49sr | 26.7avg/2.8rpo
LA: 26.4avg/95sr | 31.9avg/5.5rpo
T20: 14.3avg/125sr | 23.4avg/8.3rpo
White Ferns basics in warm up win vs England Development..
NZ: 274/5 | England: 230
Suzie Bates: 44 (59)
Sophie Devine: 55 (41)
Amelia Kerr: 38 (43)
Molly Penfold: 3w @ 5rpo
Amelia Kerr: 3w @ 3.9rpo
Sophie Devine: 1w @ 5.6rpo
Ede Carson: 1w @ 5.8rpo
What happens when Gold Coast Titans host NZ Warriors? Titans get their first home crowd over 15,000 for the season...
vs Dragons: 14,537
vs Dolphins: 13,898
vs Sea Eagles: 13,336
vs Storm: 13,096
vs Cowboys: 12,125
vs Rabbitohs: 14,434
vs Warriors: 22,702
Folks should be open to Warriors being better than they are right now - better with fewer games played by the seniors. That's my intuition, though the Shaun Johnson and NZ Warriors situation is less vibey and more factual than that implies: Despite the focus on Johnson from most media outlets, he isn't that important to winning.
The perception of Johnson is that he's the leading man for NZ Warriors yet results suggest otherwise. Johnson's got a 25% winning rate this year and the only season worse was 2022 with 24% winning. Five losses in a row for Johnson and he's played in all eight losses this season. None of it makes sense but there is a solid link between Johnson playing and NZW losing this season.
Which leads into Johnson being injured. It sucks for him but it could be good for the team. Coach Andrew Webster doesn't seem capable of making drastic changes so there may be just enough injuries/suspensions from the Titans game to force changes.
One thing I didn't cover in the Sunday morning breakdown of Warriors woes was that the coach Webster system isn't working. It was so fun to chat through last year with intricate shapes, threats in each channel, and defence that fans can be proud of. Poof, it's vanished. What does coach Webster stand for and what is the team's identity right now?
Also reckon that NZ Warriors loving the State of Origin period is a myth. NZW had a home loss to Storm followed by 666 vs Titans, while losing Mitchell Barnett for both Origin camps and Kurt Capewell for this camp. Just like the 'big Warriors forward pack' myth, there is nothing to suggest that the Origin phase helps NZW.
The beauty of the loss vs Titans was that Titans are a lively Kiwi-NRL team. Keano Kini, Kieran Foran, Erin Clark, and Isaac Liu were all awesome.
Clark is in his best season with 102m/game (first year over 85m/game) and 97.9% tackling. He’s a fast middle forward who could add his own style to a massive Aotearoa Kiwis forward pack or rep Samoa.
Foran played hooker for Aotearoa Kiwis last year. He never turns down Kiwis selection and he should be an automatic squad member. Hard to pick Foran to start ahead of Jahrome Hughes/Dylan Brown in the halves, while Brandon Smith/Jeremy Marshall-King will return to the dummy half mix. But Foran deserves to be there with his immense mana and passion for Aotearoa.
Kini is so fun. He was in the Aotearoa Kiwis squad last year and here's how the Kiwis development boost looks...
2023: 6 games, 1 linebreak, 104m/game, 65.2% tackling
2024: 8 games, 3 tries, 4 try assists, 202m/game, 72.9% tackling
Here is a Brandon Smith & Jeremy Marshall-King comparison for this season (per game)...
Brandon Smith
54.8mins, 35.1 kick metres, 2 tackle breaks, 62m, 28.1 tackles @ 90.1%
Jeremy Marshall-King
76.6mins, 3.7 kick metres, 1.1 tackle breaks, 52.4m, 40.4 tackles @ 91.9%
Reuben Porter played in another win for Tigers and he's now 2-0 when playing 30+ minutes. Porter had 66mins in the win over Raiders and while others take care of the oomph for Tigers, Porter loves the hard mahi. Porter had 33 tackles vs Titans and then 31 tackles @ 94% vs Raiders. Being cheaper than Isaiah Papali'i while getting through similar mahi without the footy ensures that Porter can add value to Tigers.
Tigers allowed Papali'i to join Panthers next season and Asu Kepaoa to join Panthers asap. Panthers also picked up Taniwharau junior Austin Dias a few weeks ago from Sea Eagles, doubling their Kiwi-NRL crew in reserve grade. Kepaoa and Dias played alongside Daeon Amituanai and Preston Riki this week for Panthers in NSW Cup, adding more Kiwi-NRL flavour with the impending departure of James Fisher-Harris.
Sea Eagles had a big win over Rabbitohs in NSW Cup and this saw (former Roosters Kiwi-NRL junior) Bayleigh Bentley-Hape from Northland score two tries for Rabbitohs. The Sea Eagles team had Oliver Lawry (Halswell) and Devante Mihinui (Glenora) playing their first NSW Cup games after being in U21s. Lawry started at centre and Mihinui came off the bench.
Remember that the Aotearoa Kiwis team who defeated Australia last year had just one NZW player in Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad at fullback. Here is an Aotearoa Kiwis squad with no NZW players...
Fullback: Keano Kini
Wingers: Ronaldo Mulitalo, Jamayne Isaako
Centres: Joseph Manu, Matthew Timoko
Halves: Jahrome Hughes, Dylan Brown
Middles: James Fisher-Harris, Moses Leota, Joseph Tapine
Edges: Briton Nikora, Isaiah Papali'i
Hooker: Jeremy Marshall-King
Bench: Brandon Smith, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Leo Thompson, Griffin Neame
Squad: Kieran Foran, Will Warbrick, Deine Mariner (Samoa), Naufahu Whyte, Xavier Willison (Cook Islands), Sebastian Kris, Scott Sorenson, Wiremu Greig
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
Three more rounds remain in the NBL. Every team plays 20 times (home and away versus everyone) and then we break into the top six with the teams ranked 3-6 playing in the first round, before the winners of those two games advance to face the top two teams (who get a bye in that first round) in the semis. Then, as stands to reason, a final. One-off games throughout. Same format as last year, basically.
It’s already frisky time for a few of those teams who are without their Tall Blacks for the next couple rounds (they should be back by finals)... and then Australia went and picked a developmental squad for a tour of Japan which included Mitch McCarron (Taranaki), Sam Froling (Taranaki), and Ben Henshall (Otago). Froling had 26p/10r in the first game. Australia won game one, then game two was a tie with no overtime.
The top six looks pretty settled right now. Hawke’s Bay might make a run but their remaining games are pretty tough, so Nelson Giants ought to hold sixth. It’s then going to be a scramble between Taranaki (12-4), Franklin (10-5), and Wellington (11-6) to see who can muster homecourt advantage for the play-in games. Auckland should be sweet in second with 14 wins already on the board but they’ll be relying on a full-strength Canterbury side to slip up for them to reach any higher. The Rams just bruised Wellington by 25 points to extend their winning streak to 13 games. Imports Kenneth Buffin and Lachlan Olbrich both scored 30+ in that game while Taylor Britt had 18 points and 11 assists.
Leading NZ Points Scorers (Total)
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 345
Corey Webster (Auckland Tuatara) – 343
Tohi Smith-Milner (Wellington Saints) – 326
Dan Fotu (Nelson Giants) – 289
Izayah Le’Afa (Wellington Saints) – 278
Leading NZ Assist Makers (Total)
Corey Webster (Auckland Tuatara) – 124
Taylor Britt (Canterbury Rams) – 99
Izayah Le’Afa (Wellington Saints) – 70
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 69
Callum McRae (Southland Sharks) - 66
Leading NZ Rebounders (Total)
Callum McRae (Southland Sharks) – 188
Rob Loe (Auckland Tuatara) – 185
Sam Timmins (Franklin Bulls) – 154
Tohi Smith-Milner (Wellington Saints) – 146
Jack Andrew (Otago Nuggets) - 119
Meanwhile in Vanuatu…
All Whites Minutes Leaders At The OFC Nations Cup (After 2 Games)
Alex Rufer – 180
Kosta Barbarouses – 173
Cam Howieson – 172
Elijah Just/Tim Payne – 166
Tyler Bindon/Finn Surman – 163
Every player except Oli Sail (third-choice goalie) has taken the pitch so far from the 21-man squad. Oddly it seems that there’s no number 10 amongst the jerseys. Sail is wearing 22, with the 10 jersey left over. Sarpreet Singh normally wears that number, though that probably doesn’t mean anything.
All Whites Goal Contribution Leaders At The OFC Nations Cup (After 2 Games)
Elijah Just – 4 (1 goal, 3 assists)
Max Mata – 2 (1 goal, 1 assist)
Ben Waine – 2 (2 goals)
Ben Old – 1 (1 goal)
Tim Payne – 1 (1 assist)
Kosta Barbarouses – 1 (1 goal)
NZ’s semi-final is against Tahiti at midday on Thursday while Fiji face Vanuatu at 4pm in the other match. Fiji have scored 15 goals in their three games, with Roy Krishna only pocketing four of them and three were penalties. Fiji have put a little bit of room between themselves and the rest of the confederation as NZ’s main rivals over the past few years... they’ve gotta get through the hosts first though.
Flying Kiwis Transfer Tracker
The Marko Stamenic move to Nottingham Forest (and Olympiacos) has been completed. We’ve got non-photoshopped images of him in both teams’ merch with announcements on both club websites. The £4.6m fee is slightly more than what Coventry were prepared to pay and it makes him the second-most expensive kiwi footballer ever (behind three separate Chris Wood fees that were all at least three times this substantial). He’s signed a five-year contract and will spend the first season on loan with Olympiacos.
There’ll be more on this in Flying Kiwis tomorrow. Olympiacos are reigning Europa Conference League champs and should be one of the title contenders in Greece so he’ll have a chance to keep up his streak of winning trophies and playing continental footy. The funkiest part of this deal is the financial side though. Nottm Forest were dumped into a relegation battle last season due to points docked for financial fair play breaches. The loan makes sense from a developmental perspective considering the shared ownership between the two clubs, though it also may have FFP ramifications. The five-year contract certainly does because the FFP hit is spread out over the length of the contract up to a max of five years (it used to be unlimited but then Chelsea started giving 8-year contracts so they amended the rule). Meaning that Stam’s transfer will count for less than a million pounds per season against their FFP ledgers... and it’s possible there’ll be a loan fee from Olympiacos that even makes year one into a benefit.
Granted, these FFP rules are easily breached. They’re hard to enforce in court and there are loopholes all over the place. Like, for example, the way that Premier League clubs are currently trading youth players to each other for exorbitant fees. Youth players who were signed for free thus any fees become pure profit to offset their other transfer work. It’s very cynical but that’s what’s happening. This shouldn’t affect Stamenic in any way though (other than maybe helping Nottm Forest stay in the Prem for when he turns up in preseason of 2025).
Staying in the Premier League, Alex Paulsen’s chances of not being loaned out look to be improving. There’s no reason to think that Neto won’t remain their number one heading into the 2024-25 campaign but Andrei Radu’s loan deal expires in a week with zero indication that they’ll look to keep him, while Darren Randolph has been released as a free agent and their main backup Mark Travers is drawing transfer interest from multiple clubs. Travers was a youth product at the club (he’s 25 now) and Bournemouth always have to be mindful of FFP given their relatively small revenue base compared to other EPL clubs. They’re not in breach territory yet but they spent massive amounts these last couple seasons without making any significant sales so they’re getting close to it. That could be a factor in whether Travers stays or goes. U21s goalie Cameron Plain is also leaving so if Travers goes that’d leave just Neto, Paulsen, and Will Dennis (23yo youth team grad who spent last season on loan with Kilmarnock – he’s only made one senior appearance for the Cherries).
Vic Esson has signed a new contract with Rangers which will keep her at the club for a third season. Esson’s seemed pretty settled there since day one, though there may have been a thought given to leaving when she wasn’t playing much during the middle of last season. But then she got a great run of games down the stretch as RFC won both cups and were only goal difference away from adding a league title to the haul. Champions League qualifiers are coming up in September. It had to be. Rangers have been announcing their signings/releases on a player-by-player basis and this deal’s been revealed fairly early in the process. Always a good sign. Her manager called her a “hugely influential member of the squad”. Of course, her only SWPL compatriot from last season, Meikayla Moore, has already been confirmed to be leaving Glasgow City.
Still waiting to hear if any more clubs are joining the Libby Cacace auction. So far we’re at: Palermo, Salernitana, Bochum, Union Berlin, and Bologna. The latter is by far the most exciting possibility given that they’ve got Champions League qualifiers. Cacace has one more year on his deal so this could be a negotiating tactic, though Empoli usually also need to sell a couple of players each year to make bank and he is one of their better transfer prospects (though certainly not the only one involved in rumours). Meanwhile, down the divisions, old mate Niko Kirwan is leaving Padova after three years. Perugia have been linked as a possible next destination – that would be a sideways move in Serie C.
The Women’s Super League transfer window officially opens in England tonight, which should affect a few kiwi players. Ria Percival’s a good shot to sign permanently with Crystal Palace. She’s said she wants to and it makes sense for all involved. Anna Leat is also a free agent but there have been no further whispered updates since it was reported several weeks back that she was likely to be leaving. CJ Bott is under contract with Leicester City though they are in the process of finding a new manager and that’s always a shake-up. Then we’ve got a bunch of players in the second tier who we’re assuming are off-contract. Players like Jacqui Hand, Paige Satchell, Katie Kitching, and Grace Neville. Neville’s image has been used in some London City Lionesses preseason promo stuff though.
Interestingly, the Brisbane Roar listed their departing players over the weekend and Marco Rojas was not among them. He also was not amongst the 20 players under contract... suggesting that he’s in the in-between stage. Could mean negotiations to stay but we just don’t know yet.
Domestic Football Roundup
The Women’s South Island League has begun. We got two fixtures over the weekend to open the second edition of this competition. No National League qualification on the line yet because the South Island still retains their two federation teams for at least one more year but we’re building towards it. In week one we saw Otago University hosting Cashmere Technical... and losing 3-0. It was only 1-0 with ten minutes left though. Anna McPhie scored on 19’ and it wasn’t until Margi Dias (83’) and Rosie Hayman (89’) got busy that Tech wrapped it up. Full game for Annalie Longo in there for CT. In the other game, Dunedin City Royals won 2-0 against Coastal Spirit thanks to goals from Shontelle Smith (30’) and Rose Morton (58’). That DCR team is the bulk of last year’s Southern United squad while Cashmere Tech have a large chunk of the Canterbury United side (with Coastal Spirit also contributing a few). Nelson Suburbs and Roslyn Wakari didn’t play this round.
Pretty standard stuff in the Men’s Southern League. Cashmere Technical remain undefeated in first place after a 2-0 win over Dunedin City Royals. Coastal Spirit are undefeated in second place following a 5-2 win away against Selwyn United... they were 2-1 down but scored four times in the last 32 minutes. Unfortunately for Selwyn, their hopes of the upset were severely damaged by a red card to captain Jack Allatt just before half-time. Also on the comeback trail were Christchurch United who fell behind after 50 minutes against Nomads United only to end up winning 2-1. Jackson Cole scored the decisive goal in the 78th minute – he’s an NZ U17s representative. As things stand, The Rams would miss out on National League but they’re only two points behind Spirit and four points behind Tech. Elsewhere, a Lennon Whewell hat-trick was the highlight as Nelson Suburbs won 4-2 against FC Twenty11, while Ferrymead Bays won 3-0 away to Universities of Canterbury.
Moving into the Women’s Central League, there was a crucial 1-0 win for Waterside Karori against Petone which puts them four points ahead of their rivals in second place. Top two get Nats, remember. Kendall Pollock scored the only goal in the 83rd minute. No issues for Wellington United who are a point clear in first after six rounds. They won 7-1 against Palmerston North-Marist. Hope Gilchrist got two of the goals as the Diamonds led 5-0 at half-time. Then also a Sasha Rasmussen double did the heavy lifting in Moturoa’s 3-0 win against Taradale, plus Victoria Uni had already beaten Seatoun 4-1 last week while everyone else was playing cup footy. Two previously winless teams there. Guts to Seatoun who retain that title.
There was midweek footy in the Men’s Central League. The Wellington Phoenix Reserves hosted Wellington Olympic on Wednesday night, presumably to clear room for the WeeNix with Oceania U19s coming up. Tze Xuan Loke scored twice inside the first twenty before Anaru Cassidy incredibly made it 3-0 to the WeeNix... then Olympic came roaring back with a couple goals before the break and ended up winning 5-3. You know who scored the fifth? Gianni Bouzoukis. Looks like he’s back after a stint with NWS Spirit in Australia. A goal on return sounds about right. In Olympic’s second game of the round it was Eddie Wilkinson who scored the winner as they beat Western Suburbs 1-0. That was first versus second. The Greeks are now eight points clear after 12 matches... although Napier City Rovers can cut into that with their game in hand. Rovers were triumphant in a 7-1 victory vs Waterside Karori in which Oscar Faulds scored three more times. Believe it or not, they were 1-0 down at half-time.
Miramar Rangers bagged a 5-0 win against Island Bay. Four of those goals came in the last half hour, including a double for substitute Seb Barton-Ginger. Joshua Tollervey also made his club debut for Miramar in this match, the former WeeNix forward returning to the capital after a stint with Auckland United. Petone drew 2-2 with the Wellington Phoenix Reserves thanks to Coran Perks’ last-minute equaliser. Daniel Makowen did get his fourth goal of the season for the WeeNix though, he seems to be stepping up after several forwards aged out of the team this year (Tollervey included). Also North Wellington won 3-1 against Stop Out to lift them to eighth while Stop Out remain last with only two points from 11 matches.
You may have heard that Michaela Foster has signed with Auckland United in the Women’s NRFL Premier Division. Mentioned it in Friday’s newsletter, nothing to worry about there for Nix fans – she’s merely staying busy ahead of the Olympics… and also maybe ahead of the top of the table clash with West Coast Rangers next week. Foster debuted as Auckland United cruised to a 6-1 win versus Eastern Suburbs. Looked like the strongest line-up that Subs have picked for a wee while but they were no match for the league leaders. Rene Wasi scored twice. Foster was one of three current/former Nix players in the lineup for AU with Chloe Knott and Saskia Vosper also in amongst.
West Coast Rangers held serve by winning their own game 3-0 away to Fencibles. Only one point separates WCR and AU and then there’s a 17-point break until the third-placed team (Eastern Suburbs). Safe to say that Rangers shouldn’t be getting pipped at the post for National League qualification like they did last year. There was a rare 0-0 draw when Ellerslie hosted Hibiscus Coast, then also a much more typical 2-2 draw between Hamilton Wanderers and Western Springs. Good result for Wanderers there, with Maddi Ollington’s 79th minute goal earning a point. They’re still five points adrift in last but have begun to look a lot more competitive lately.
Finally, the Men’s Northern League could be in for a new champion this season after Eastern Suburbs sprung a shock 1-0 win against Auckland City. They never seem to beat City but they did here. Jake Mechell’s seventh-minute goal proved the difference against a Howieson-less ACFC who will presumably soon lose Liam Gillion as well, LG having also signed with Auckland FC (albeit on scholarship terms). Kailan Gould and Derek Tieku both played off the bench for the Navy Blues, a pair of mid-season signings to help bridge those losses. However, this defeat means they can no longer rely on their games in hand to return to the top of the ladder. In fact, they’ve now dipped all the way down to fourth.
In first are Birkenhead United following a 5-0 win away to West Coast Rangers, with Sam Philip getting two of the goals. They’re on 29 points (12 games) while Eastern Suburbs and Western Springs are each on 28 points (13 games) and Auckland City have 25 points (11 games). Western Springs beat Manurewa 4-2 courtesy of an Emiliano Tade brace. Additionally, a couple late goals gave Auckland United a 4-2 win over Tauranga City which boosts to their top four hopes. New AFC signing Jonty Bidois scored for TC. NZ U20s rep Oliver Colloty is now an Auckland United player and he bagged a penalty goal on debut.
We also had Bay Olympic winning 3-1 away to East Coast Bays. Ibrahim Nadir with a double. And it was Melville United who tasted 2-1 glory in the derby against Hamilton Wanderers... even though Ryen Lawrence got a late red card. Wanderers thus remain in last, while Melville still join them in the relegation zone but with less distance to cover towards safety. Keep in mind that three teams could be relegated this season (third-to-last plays off against second in the Champo) in order to clear space for an Auckland FC reserves team in 2025.
Musical Jam...