Analytics & Recruitment
Kiwis forward depth, Wellington Phoenix stuff, Blackcaps & White Ferns, Marko Stamenic to Swansea City, All Whites squad, and more
Scotty’s Word
Ahead of the 2025 Pacific Championships, most of the NZ Kiwis forwards are in career best zones. Wellington's Joseph Tapine and Nelson Asofa-Solomona are the only middle forwards who have not had an increase in minutes. Tapine's stats are slightly lower than they have been but he has stepped up as a leader for the best team in the NRL right now and his 84% win rate this season is the highest of his career.
Asofa-Solomona is still hovering around 30 minutes and he is the only NZ Kiwis forward who has struggled to find a groove this season. James Fisher-Harris has added a few minutes since joining NZ Warriors and Moses Leota has picked up more minutes in Fisher-Harris' absence at Panthers. Then there are the younger forwards who have all added at least five minutes per game from their 2024 seasons.
Below are the minutes per game for middle forwards in the mix for NZ Kiwis. I have included Griffin Neame and Xavier Willison who are currently out injured, as well as Demitric Vaimauga who is in the wider mix and is eligible for Aotearoa, Samoa and Tonga.
(2024 | 2025)
James Fisher-Harris: 46.6 | 49.2
Joseph Tapine: 53.8 | 51.6
Moses Leota: 40.9 | 43.2
Nelson Asofa-Solomona: 35.1 | 31.9
Naufahu Whyte: 33 | 55.2
Leo Thompson: 49.2 | 54.6
Griffin Neame: 39.6 | 44.4
Erin Clark: 38.8 | 56.9
Phoenix Crossland: 55.6 | 62.8
Xavier Willison: 38.6 | 44.7
Demitric Vaimauga: 19.3 | 31.3
Kiwi-NRL Spotlight: Eddie Ieremia-Toeava Debut For NZ Warriors
Exploring New Zealand Warriors Trends And Updates In The Development Pipeline
Three Funky Pockets For New Zealand Warriors In NRL & NRLW
Beyond the wall in Monday's dispatch I highlighted Jordan Riki's form with Broncos and the edge forward department is well stocked with lads playing good footy. Riki is in his first season averaging 100+ metres per game and the fact that he is a reliable 80-minute edge forward with 100+ NRL games experience at 25-years-old shows his quality.
Isaiah Papali'i could be classified as a middle forward but he's playing middle and edge for Panthers. He was playing less than 40mins in most of the first phase of the season when Panthers were losing and now he is usually playing over 40mins with Panthers winning. Papali'i is in the same tier as Fisher-Harris, Tapine, Leota etc and has the ability to cover middle and edge at the international level.
Briton Nikora and Marata Niukore are reliable NZ Kiwis forwards as well. Nikora is a starting edge forward for Aotearoa and Niukore is behind Papali'i, in a battle with Riki for top-17 selection.
2025 New Zealand A Tour Of Bangladesh Debrief
2025 New Zealand A Women's Tour Of England Debrief
New Zealand T20 Tri-Series In Zimbabwe Debrief
Five Funky Things About The State Of New Zealand Test Cricket
For paid subscribers and the Patreon whanau I have more information about dummy half running and kicking for NZ Warriors women, Haami Loza's move from Knights to Panthers and cricket spotlights on Tim Pringle (next best young spinner) and Maddy Green (most important White Ferns batter for the World Cup).
Blackcaps have eight seamers competing for T20 game time. There is lots of T20I cricket coming up to help sort through this depth ahead of the T20 World Cup and, as the stats below show, these seamers are all pretty good at T20 bowling. Here are the averages for the eight seamers in their T20I careers and since the start of 2024..
(T20I | Since 2024)
Jacob Duffy: 16.34 | 14.21
Matt Henry: 20.32 | 17.63
Lockie Ferguson: 17 | 9.25
Zak Foulkes: 24.66
Adam Milne: 24.64 | 21.53
Ben Sears: 23.77 | 24.84
Will O'Rourke: 26.85
Kyle Jamieson: 36.46 | 20.66
Let's stretch it out to 10 with Ben Lister who has already played T20Is for Aotearoa and Nathan Smith who has not…
(T20I | T20)
Ben Lister: 28.72 | 25.46
Nathan Smith: N/A | 25.00
White Ferns fringe selections...
Batting: Bella James/Emma McCleod/Izzy Sharp
James should win this battle and I'm rolling with two wicket-keepers in the squad so there won't be much space for the younger batters. Polly Inglis and Izzy Gaze are competing for game time but not squad selection and Gaze may get selected as a batter at some stage.
Spin: Fran Jonas/Flora Devonshire
Jonas has the White Ferns reps but has been underwhelming in ODIs and on the domestic circuit last summer. This is more about Devonshire being a better batter and fielder than Jonas though with her lefty spin just as good as Jonas'. My preference is Deonshire joining Amelia Kerr and Eden Carson as the spinners.
Seam: Hannah Rowe/Bree Illing/Molly Penfold/Rosemary Mair
Only one of these seamers may get selected if Lea Tahuhu is good to go. Rowe is the best all-rounder and bowls lovely out-swing but she hasn't been a consistent 1st 11 player recently. Penfold and Mair offer pace and bounce, which is useful in India where there is less seam movement. Illing looks just as fast and bounce while also offering lefty x-factor and I want her in the squad, but Penfold has been building towards this moment so she may get the nod.
Musical jam…
Wildcard’s Notebook
Ideally I’d be getting the Flying Kiwis articles up on Tuesdays but with their ever-growing scope combined with domestic footy roundups and podcast recording/editing on Mondays and Tuesdays... it almost always bleeds into Wednesdays these days. It is what it is (support the mahi with a paid Substack subscription if you appreciate this or any of the other kiwi sports coverage we offer).
Yesterday’s FKs yarn featured a Marko Stamenic segment even as we awaited the actual confirmation of his move to Swansea City. That confirmation finally came overnight – not coincidentally around about the same time that Nottingham Forest were reported to have sorted a move for midfielder Douglas Luiz from Juventus (ex-Aston Villa). Granted, Stam has been in Wales since the weekend and training with his new team so that delay doesn’t fully stack up. Sounds like this has been in the works for potentially up to two months. Dunno why it took so long.
Anyway, the deal is now done and Stamenic has joined Swansea City on a permanent basis with a 4+1 year contract (four years with an additional option) and a transfer fee reported to be around £2m... less than half of what Nottm Forest paid for him 14 months ago.
That Flying Kiwis article went into plenty of detail around this move but there’s still more intrigue. Like, why did Forest sign him in the first place if they were only going to flip him a year later for less money, having loaned him out in between? It wasn’t a move done for Olympiacos’ benefit because he didn’t fit their system and they didn’t need another midfield body, as we saw with his limited minutes. My best guess is that it’s because NFFC is not the club they were 14 months ago. Stamenic was signed fresh off a relegation battle. He’s leaving a club that’s competing in the Europa League. Priorities have changed and they’re capable of enticing a more proven calibre of player to the City Ground these days.
And while they might have sought another loan to see how he progresses, there’s a level of uncertainty that comes with that from both Swansea and Stamenic’s points of view that isn’t ideal. Stamenic experienced that last year with Olympiacos – it’s hard to connect with the fans when they only see you as a rental. And it’s clear that Swansea City is seeking to build a strong, sustainable squad.
Swansea recently received an influx of cash when Luka Modric and Snoop Dogg (that’s right, do not adjust your set) bought into the ownership group, giving them money to spend. Stamenic is their ninth new signing and there could be more. The four that they paid transfer fees for are: Zeidane Inoussa (23yo), Ethan Galbraith (24yo), Bobby Wales (20yo), and Marko Stamenic (23yo). All of them have signed contracts until at least 2029 including option years. There’s a deliberate strategy to lock in these pedigreed younger players whose values should increase.
By the way, Snoop Dogg followed Marko Stamenic on Instagram last week in a big clue as to what was to follow. That’s cool... but it’s been claimed that Luka Modric spoke directly to Inoussa to help convince him to sign with the Swans. Dunno if Stamenic needed the same encouragement but if he can now count one of the greatest midfielders of all time as a mentor then he’s in a good place. Swansea did refer to him as a “long-term target” in their announcement.
Time to update the list of kiwi pros playing footy in England this season...
Premier League
Chris Wood - Nottingham Forest
Alex Paulsen - AFC Bournemouth
Championship
Liberato Cacace - Wrexham
Tyler Bindon - Sheffield United
Max Crocombe – Millwall
Marko Stamenic – Swansea City
League One
Ben Waine - Port Vale
Matthew Garbett – Peterhead United
League Two
Nik Tzanev – Newport County
Max Mata - Shrewsbury Town
Matt Dibley-Dias - Chesterfield
Premier League 2 (U21s)
Henry Gray - Ipswich Town
Marley Leuluai - Burnley
Joe Wallis & Noah Dupont - West Bromwich Albion
Non-League
Tommy Smith – Braintree Town (English National League)
Matthew Gould – Yeovil Town (English National League)
Zac Jones - AFC Fylde (English National League North)
Jamie Searle - Eastbourne Borough (English National League South)
Josh Redfearn - Maidstone United (English National League South)
Women’s Super League 2
Hannah Blake & Michaela Foster – Durham FC
Katie Kitching - Sunderland
Grace Neville - Ipswich Town
Indiah-Paige Riley - Crystal Palace
Aotearoa Domestic Football Roundup – August 19
The Wellington Phoenix have been bumped out of the Aussie Cup in embarrassing fashion, losing 4-0 away against Heidelberg United on Tuesday night. They played some nice build-up stuff during the first half but were too impatient trying to curl the ball behind the high defensive line of HU and then a freaky own goal from Isaac Hughes had them trailing 1-0 at the break. They might have come back from that except for a horrific start to the second spell where they conceded twice in six minutes to suddenly make it a three-goal deficit. That was when Chiefy subbed on the big dogs with Alex Rufer, Carlo Armiento, Ifeanyi Eze, and Paulo Retre all introduced immediately after 3-0. The Nix dominated from there but couldn’t score against a confident team with a lead to protect and then Heidelberg bagged another towards the end.
Keep in mind that this Heidelberg team is currently second in the Victoria NPL and also won 3-0 against Western Sydney Wanderers last round. These guys are amongst the best club teams in Australia at the moment and they’re deep into their season whereas the Welly Nix are still midway through preseason with many players still having minutes managed and the new signings are the furthest behind. Even in the second half against Wrexham, with a Nix team full of Central League players up against an English Championship club (a far greater difference in levels than NPL to ALM), we saw what an advantage it is to be match fit against a team that isn’t.
Keep in mind that the Wellington Phoenix are also switching up their shape again this season. Giancarlo Italiano has held back on the specifics but he has confirmed that the team will be playing 3-4-3 this season, as we’ve seen in all three cup games. That means not only are there fitness concessions here but also tactical concessions as the lads adjust to a new formation. With more signings still to come.
What I’m saying is: don’t overreact to Aussie Cup success or failure. We’ve been down this path many times before and it’s just too far away from the main season to have any bearing.
On that note, the Phoenix just announced their fifth and final visa signing: centre-back Manjrekar James. Born in Dominica and named after Indian cricketer Sanjay Manjrekar, his family moved to Canada when he was a kid and he went on to win 17 international caps for Canada (most recently in 2020). He’s played professionally in Canada, Hungary, Denmark, Greece, Ukraine, and Costa Rica. He’s 1.93 metres tall and turned 32 a couple of weeks ago.
Chief: “Manjrekar fits the profile of the defender that I’ve been wanting to recruit. He’s aggressive, he’s strong, he’s very good with the ball, he has good experience across a number of leagues around the world and he’s an international. Manjrekar’s got all the attributes I want from a centre back. He’s very good man-to-man, very mobile, quick and makes very good decisions in very hard situations. He’s also very good in the air and always on the front foot so I think stylistically and in terms of aggression he’ll give us an edge. He’s a nice guy as well and I think he’ll fit in really well with the group.”
Aggressive. Strong. Good on the ball. International. Reliable decision-maker. Dominant in the air. Nice bloke. Those attributes could just as easily describe Finn Surman, who was one of the dudes who left such a massive hole in the squad when he left prior to last season. Italiano has said he hopes to add another left-sided player and an extra attacker to finish his recruitment.
Wellington Phoenix Depth Chart
GK – Josh Oluwayemi, Alby Kelly-Heald, (Eamonn McCarron)
DEF – Manjrekar James, Tim Payne, Isaac Hughes, Lukas Kelly-Heald, Corban Piper, Xuan Loke, Jayden Smith
MID – Alex Rufer, Kazuki Nagasawa, Paulo Retre, Matt Sheridan, Fin Roa Conchie, (Fergus Gillion)
FWD – Hideki Ishige, Ifeanyi Eze, Carlo Armiento, Nikola Mileusnic, Luke Brooke-Smith, Nathan Walker, Gabe Sloane-Rodrigues, Luke Supyk, (Lachlan Candy)
(I tried to put that into a more specific depth chart but it’s too soon to say with a few cases – such as whether Tim Payne is RWB or CB, or if Ifeanyi Eze is a winger or a striker – plus where would you even put guys like Corban Piper and Matt Sheridan who play absolutely anywhere and everywhere? But they are loosely ranked by how close I think they are to the first eleven.)
Played Every Minute Of The Three Aussie Cup Games:
Kazuki Nagasawa, Isaac Hughes, Matt Sheridan
Started All Three Aussie Cup Games:
Kazuki Nagasawa, Isaac Hughes, Matt Sheridan, Fin Roa Conchie, Xuan Loke, Hideki Ishige, Gabe Sloane-Rodrigues, Lukas Kelly-Heald
Played All Three Aussie Cup Games:
Kazuki Nagasawa, Isaac Hughes, Matt Sheridan, Fin Roa Conchie, Xuan Loke, Hideki Ishige, Gabe Sloane-Rodrigues, Lukas Kelly-Heald, Paulo Retre, Luke Supyk, Luke Brooke-Smith
Notables Who Played Less Than 150 Minutes Across The Three Aussie Cup Games:
Tim Payne, Corban Piper, Mankrekar James, Ifeanyi Eze, Paulo Retre, Nikola Mileusnic, Carlo Armiento, Alex Rufer
Meanwhile, Auckland FC plays Sydney FC over the weekend in their quarter-final and have just signed Englishman Sam Cosgrove to be their new number nine. We spoke about that a bit in the Bonus Podcast, which those of you with access to the paid section can have a listen to. Also in the paid section are written notes on All Whites and some more Marko Stamenic. I’ll write about AFC in Monday’s newsletter after they’ve played.
Musical Jam...